Unlocking the Congressional Gridlock: The Ultimate Chart Revealing Dysfunction in Congress

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Proof of Congress ongoing dysfunction is in its current paralysis.

Republicans hold a slight numerical advantage in the House, but they lack a strong governing majority. Consequently, Kevin McCarthy has stepped down as the House speaker, and it remains uncertain when either House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana or Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, who has received endorsement from Donald Trump, will be able to successfully unite the party and resume operations in the House. Achieving almost complete Republican unity will be necessary to reopen the chamber.

If it feels like it didnt used to be this way, it didnt

The size of congressional majorities has generally shrunk in recent years, just as the countrys politics have gotten so much more tribal.

Since the "Republican Revolution" in 1994, there have been only two instances where a majority of more than 50 seats was achieved. This is a notable contrast to previous decades when every Democratic majority surpassed 50 seats, often during terms of Republican presidents.

Multiple factors contribute to the prevalence of narrow majorities during this period. One significant reason is the closely divided nature of the country, which is reflected in the composition of Congress. As the "Peoples House," Congress represents this division.

However, there is a deeper aspect to consider. Congressional maps that have been gerrymandered primarily aim to safeguard those in office, resulting in fewer seats being exchanged, even in the event of a change in the nation's political landscape.

Despite concerns regarding the economy and discontent with President Joe Biden, Republicans were largely unsuccessful in acquiring numerous seats during the 2022 midterm elections, barely securing the majority in the House that currently poses challenges for them.

The lack of competitive seats makes it feel like we are stuck with a closely divided House and a closely divided Senate for the foreseeable future.

Half as many competitive House seats

As of the 2022 election, the number of competitive congressional districts, also known as swing or battleground seats, has significantly decreased from 164 in 1998 to 82. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter assigns a partisan score to each district, distinguishing them as either leaning slightly Republican (R+5) or leaning slightly Democratic (D+5).

According to Cook, partisan divisions in the country are contributing to the issue of gerrymandering, rather than solely being the fault of gerrymandering itself. This poses a disadvantage for Democrats, as states that have implemented nonpartisan systems for redrawing congressional maps have experienced a slower decline in swing districts. Conversely, states controlled by Republicans that have opted for partisan redistricting have fewer swing districts, as noted by Cook.

The result is an increasingly polarized political climate, where the loudest and most extreme lawmakers from both parties are gaining popularity and financial support. While deal-makers within their own parties may face opposition, they are also targeted by the opposing party.

A major mistake of McCarthy, according to the far-right legislators who successfully removed him, was his dependence on Democratic votes to pass a temporary government funding bill. The partisan approach he adopted to appease the far-right lawmakers ensured that Democrats would not support his continuance in office.

Whoever becomes McCarthy's successor will face a similar dilemma next month, as government funding is set to expire in November.

Moderates are often the most endangered members

According to CNN's Simone Pathe, who frequently analyzes the field, the Senate seat most likely to switch parties in the 2024 election is currently held by West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. Many progressive Democrats find him frustrating, but he is also a key factor in their Senate majority.

More frequent changes in power

A significant number of legislators fall into the moderate category. Several moderate Republicans, particularly those who represent districts that supported Biden in the 2020 presidential election, are disappointed that their moderate Democratic counterparts did not assist in averting this predicament by giving McCarthy a few impactful votes. However, it is challenging to envision any Republicans voting for a Democratic leader.

McCarthy's hasty departure was both embarrassing and unsightly for him, although maneuvering and bargaining to obtain a leadership position is not an exclusive trait of Republicans. In contrast, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi executed her strategy more gracefully, but it was still a strategic move.

Previously, she had alleviated the frustration among progressives by committing to a four-year limit on her leadership, a promise she fulfilled by stepping down as the leader of Democrats following the 2022 midterm election.

When Pelosi was elected for her last term as speaker in January 2021, she received a total of 216 votes, which fell short of the majority of 218. This was due to both the absence of some individuals during the vote and certain Democrats opting to vote "present" in order to express their dissent towards her leadership.

It can be presumed that these clashes for leadership positions will persist as long as the country remains evenly divided, with neither political party holding a strong majority for effective governance.