Unleash the Underdog: Bet on Roberto De Zerbi's Brighton for a Top Four Finish at 15/2

1pt on Brighton to finish in the top four (15/2 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

It really should be the 'big eight'.

Brighton are knocking on that door. And they shouldn't be ignored.

Newcastle has swiftly established themselves among the elite, surpassing expectations. Their success can be attributed to astute strategizing rather than extravagant spending.

Last season, Chelsea exemplified the significance of having financial might is insignificant compared to appointing competent individuals to devise a football strategy. It far outweighs embarking on a splurge of expenditures.

Newcastle and other clubs have broken into the top four, making it no longer exclusive. This is why it surprises me to see the Premier League's most cleverly managed and astute club being disrespected and overlooked by the betting markets as the season begins. Brighton, just like Newcastle, should be considered as a serious contender in the top tier.

If Roberto De Zerbi continues to display his daring and destructive style at Brighton, just as he did last season, the probability of achieving odds like 9/4 for a top-six finish or the current 15/2 for a top-four finish next season will be significantly reduced. It is highly likely that a push for Champions League qualification is in the cards.

An analysis of Brighton's expected goals data in 2023 reveals a remarkable picture, providing valuable insights into their chances of securing another successful season.

Brighton dominated the Premier League in terms of expected goals throughout the entire season, surpassing Manchester City's record. They recorded a remarkable number of shots and shots on target, making them the most thrilling team to watch. De Zerbi's bold and captivating attacking approach does leave their defense vulnerable, but even when factoring in their expected goals against, Brighton still had an impressive expected goals difference. In fact, only Pep Guardiola's team had a higher expected goals difference. Brighton's performance is undeniably awe-inspiring.

And they won't be changing for anyone. Expect the same.

This conviction, insatiable hunger, and aggressive approach to football, combined with a low-pressure environment to succeed, make them highly desirable when compared to the expectation levels of Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester United, and Liverpool this season. All of these teams have important inquiries to address in their quest to maintain a challenge against the top two.

Brighton's status as underdogs is something that should be viewed positively. Teams are still struggling to figure out a way to halt their progress. Declan Rice described their midfield dominance as "demoralizing" and "embarrassing" when West Ham was 4-0 down, a level of domination typically associated with treble-winning Manchester City. Despite what the outright markets may indicate, Brighton is not far off from reaching that same caliber.

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Brighton thrashed Arsenal 3-0 at the end of last season

Backing these selections at the advertised prices is greatly enhanced by Brighton's impressive ability to take points from their rivals contending for European places. Their recent performance against Arsenal, Man City, Tottenham, Man Utd, Newcastle, Chelsea, and Liverpool is nothing short of astounding.

In their past 20 matches across all competitions against these opponents, Brighton has emerged victorious in 11 of them, securing a total score of 35-26. Additionally, they have also won the expected goals battle with a scoreline of 24.24-22.94. These results are truly exceptional for a team considered to be outside the elite category.

Why are these Brighton prices trading so generously then?

Losing Alexis Mac Allister to Liverpool I'd assume is the big one. A fine player indeed. Yet not one that is irreplaceable.

That's what's great about Brighton: their model doesn't rely on one player. If a top-class player leaves, the coaching structure and first team opportunities are already in place for the next talent like Mac Allister to step up. Despite the departures of Marc Cucurella, Yves Bissouma, and Leandro Trossard in the past year, the club has continued to thrive. Now we have Pervis Estupinan, Moises Caicedo, and Kaoru Mitoma joining the team. Another Mac Allister is bound to emerge. I have full confidence in the decision makers.

The additional burden imposed by the Europa League could potentially distract Brighton from the Premier League. However, this notion is speculative rather than substantiated, considering that we have not witnessed how this team and manager will manage the added pressures. They might actually thrive under these circumstances. Moreover, the prices we are currently betting at provide sufficient flexibility to take a calculated gamble on the extra matches not adversely affecting their overall performance levels. Consequently, we should support them in their endeavor to break into the top four.