Unforeseen Havoc: Unleashing the Untamed Fury of Hurricanes in a Record-Breaking Season
Experts predict a dramatic conclusion to the already active hurricane season due to the convergence of record-breaking ocean temperatures and the delayed arrival of El Niño, setting the stage for an exceptional and potentially eventful end to the season
Concerns are rising among experts as the current hurricane season, which has already witnessed a higher than average number of 18 named storms in the Atlantic, shows signs of potentially ending on a remarkable and eventful note. This alarming prospect can be attributed to the atypically warm ocean temperatures that are intensifying storm activity, coupled with the delayed onset of El Niño.
October is often a time of significant activity and geographical shifts for storms. The initial portion of the month generally represents the concluding phase of the busiest period of the Atlantic hurricane season. As October progresses, the frequency of storms tends to decline rapidly, eventually dwindling to a minimum by the conclusion of the season on November 30.
Typically, storms form in uncomfortably close areas, such as the Gulf of Mexico, near the Bahamas, and the western Caribbean, rather than the open Atlantic, where storms like Category 5 Hurricane Lee emerged earlier this year. Therefore, locations like Florida, which suffered immense damage from Category 5 Hurricane Michaels in October 2018, must be especially vigilant during a typical October.
Areas where tropical development typically occurs during October.
Extremely high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean this year could increase the likelihood of late-season storm formations, according to Brian McNoldy, a Senior Research Associate at the University of Miami. This means that the main development region, which encompasses a vast section of the open Atlantic Ocean from Africa to the eastern Caribbean, could experience more storms later in the season. Consequently, areas such as the eastern Caribbean, Bermuda, and the East Coast may still face the potential risk of tropical strikes.
Throughout this hurricane season, the clash between warm ocean water and the influence of El Niño has presented a forecasting dilemma. It appears that one factor is nullifying the other.
Typically, El Niño brings forth robust upper-level winds in the Atlantic, suppressing hurricane activity. However, this year, we have observed weaker upper-level winds, which are more conducive to hurricane formation. These wind patterns are often linked to elevated ocean temperatures, precisely what we are currently experiencing, clarified Fischer.
Sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Basin. The darkest reds indicate the highest temperatures while yellows and greens represent lower temperatures.
According to Klotzbach, the warmer ocean temperatures and weaker winds are currently prevailing, allowing for a higher number of storms to form in comparison to a typical El Niño year. This trend is anticipated to persist throughout October and November.
According to Michael Fischer, an Associate Scientist with the University of Miami, El Niño typically dominates the second half of the hurricane season and overrides warm conditions in the Atlantic. However, this year, the Atlantic is exceptionally warm, unlike anything we have ever seen before. Fischer mentioned that this could potentially lead to increased tropical activity throughout the remainder of the season, but it is still uncertain.
Fischer informed CNN that we are currently navigating unfamiliar territory, making it challenging to make accurate predictions. However, it is certain that any tropical system that develops would significantly gain strength from the unusually warm water. This has been evident in previous storms like Hurricane Idalia and Hurricane Lee, which quickly intensified when passing over the exceptionally warm water.
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Selcuk Acar/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
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There is a possibility that the upper-level winds in the main development region and the Caribbean will continue to be unusually low, which is typically the case during El Niño, according to Fischer. This, along with the high ocean temperatures, could allow for unhindered tropical development.
Klotzbach doubts that El Niño will suddenly assert control, saying, "I don't see any major indications of that happening."
Continuing with favorable conditions for tropical development until the end of hurricane season will further contribute to what has already been an atypical season. "The Atlantic is experiencing several unusual occurrences this year," mentioned Klotzbach. "It stands out from previous years in a distinct way."
