Ukraine's Uncertain Path: Facing Unprecedented Challenges

The reservoir of support for Ukraine and its bold and unconventional president among the forces of democracy may be diminishing.

David A. Andelman

The security of Europe and the entire Western alliance is severely threatened. This is precisely what Russian President Vladimir Putin is capitalizing on, causing chaos and uncertainty. The situation, which initially appeared promising, has now become a complicated and volatile mess with no straightforward resolution.

America and its allies must not allow that to happen under any circumstances. The risks for Ukraine are even more profound than the hesitation shown by a few conservative Republicans in Congress regarding funding, as they are willing to sacrifice an entire nation for their selfish ambition and lack of trust in Democrats.

Fissures are emerging on the previously cohesive Western front, undoubtedly bringing immense satisfaction to Putin. One unfortunate aspect is that Ukraine's own actions have contributed to this situation.

The counteroffensive is progressing at a sluggish pace, while the demand for increasingly sophisticated weaponry continues to grow. Concerns about entangling the entire NATO alliance in an escalated conflict, along with a multitude of more pressing problems, are all converging in recent days. This could potentially create a cataclysmic nightmare for Ukraine.

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There was a sudden convergence of grain, food, and politics. Putin understood the importance and opportunity when he began his heartless blockade of Ukraine's grain, which not only feeds Europe but also vast stretches of Africa now facing devastating hunger.

However, Ukraine persisted and discovered alternative ways to export its crops instead of the embargoed Black Sea ports. These new trade routes went through neighboring countries like Poland and Slovakia, where politically influential farming interests felt threatened by the influx of cheaper supplies from Ukraine, even if most of it was intended for other markets.

Poland is preparing for a parliamentary election on October 15 and acknowledges the importance of appealing to the approximately 1.3 million Polish farmers. These farmers have been a significant voting group since the communist era. During that time, I observed the sentiments of the Polish people by visiting a chicken farm in the village of Bialobrzegi, located 50 miles south of Warsaw. Even then, one farmer I spoke to expressed his strong dissatisfaction with a government that seemed disinterested in his concerns.

Now, after about four decades, the Polish government has promptly responded to rural concerns. Together with Slovakia and Hungary, they have defied the European Union and extended the ban on importing Ukrainian grain.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses the UN General Assembly last weekin New York City.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, known for his political theatrical skills, confidently expressed his concerns at the UN General Assembly in New York. He pointed out that the way some European allies are using solidarity as a political theater, turning a serious issue into a thrilling spectacle, is alarming. Moreover, he emphasized that their actions might inadvertently enable Moscow to take center stage.

The Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, swiftly responded by threatening to cease exporting weapons to the country, despite previously being a staunch supporter. (Poland has since retracted this statement and assured that it will still fulfill its commitment to provide the agreed-upon weapons.)

During the UN General Assembly, Polish President Andrzej Duda likened Ukraine to a desperate drowning person grasping onto anything within reach.

An early version of an Army Tactical Missile System is tested December 14, 2021, at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico.

John Hamilton/Digital/White Sands Missile Range Public Affairs

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The upcoming election in nearby Slovakia on Saturday seems to favor Robert Fico, the former prime minister and leader of the populist Smer Party, which has promoted a pro-Russian agenda. During his recent campaign stop in Banovce nad Bebravou, Fico asserted that Slovakia is a peaceful country and will not contribute to the conflict in Ukraine by sending any ammunition.

Ukraine has further fueled criticism by threatening to take legal action against Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia in the World Trade Organization over their grain embargoes.

Other Western countries are becoming increasingly worried about the extended period of stagnant and detrimental situation in Ukraine, and their ability to sustain the current level of support. The phenomenon known as "Ukraine fatigue" is slowly but steadily spreading. Recently, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that his country would be providing additional shipments of arms to Ukraine. However, Kyiv's urgent request for bunker-busting cruise missiles has not been fulfilled. The timing of these developments is critical as the European Union is considering a massive 20 billion euro ($21.3 billion) fund to finance Ukraine's weapons purchases over the next four years. However, obtaining unanimous consent from all 27 member states remains an increasingly challenging endeavor.

Hungary remains tightly aligned with the Kremlin's stance and maintains a persistently disruptive veto power within the EU, which operates based on unanimous decision-making. Consequently, Ukraine's reliance on the support of Western countries has never been more crucial, especially considering Russia's current interest in exploring potential arms agreements with North Korea.

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President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, walks alongside Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) as they arrive at the U.S. Capitol for a meeting with members of the U.S. House of Representatives on September 21, 2023, in Washington, DC. President Zelensky is visiting the nation's capital after attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York. (Image: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

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The Western world has been eagerly and increasingly anxious for some notable progress in a slow-moving summer offensive before the arrival of fall rain and winter snow.

Zelensky is now potentially dealing with additional troubles within his own country. An article in The Times of London recently highlighted the escalating threats of desertion and rebellion among scattered Ukrainian troops who have grown increasingly frustrated with the widespread corruption in their ranks. This report coincides with the ongoing allegations of corruption in the military and beyond, which led to the dismissal of the defense minister earlier this month and six deputies last week, with no official explanation provided.

So, what can America and the West do? The straightforward answer is to show unwavering support for Ukraine. This may not be an easy task, given the majority of voters opposing further aid to Ukraine according to polls. However, there are still leaders who are determined to stand by Ukraine. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell emphasized on Thursday that American support for Ukraine is not simply an act of charity; it is an investment in their own direct interests. By diminishing Russia's military power, it becomes a deterrent against their primary strategic adversary, China.

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Follow us on Twitter and Facebook as China appears cautious in aligning itself too closely with Russia, despite shared political interests. However, China's diminishing military might might hamper its reputation and capabilities.

Congressional hard right-wingers, by obstructing the reinstatement of aid to Ukraine, are effectively aiding Putin, stated Robert I. Rotberg, the founding director of Harvard Kennedy School's Program on Intrastate Conflict. Consequently, they are enabling Putin. This observation can be applied to a growing number of leaders globally.

All parties, more than ever, need to act like allies and continue singing from the same songbook.