Ukraine's New Foothold in the South: Implications for Kyiv's Western Allies

Ukraine, in desperate need of a morale boost, has seen its resistance against Russian invasion fade from the headlines in recent weeks due to Israel's conflict with Hamas. Despite a highly anticipated counteroffensive resulting in only marginal progress, support in Washington appears to be wavering.

However, there is some positive news emerging this week. President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, has announced that Ukrainian forces have successfully established a presence on the left bank of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine. This development represents a potentially significant advancement for Ukraine, as it creates a natural defensive barrier against Russian forces.

Last month, reports surfaced of Ukrainian troops crossing the Dnipro into the Russian-occupied Kherson region. Pro-Kremlin military bloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces were taking positions around the village of Krynky, and warned that Ukraine intended to create a strong base on the other side of the river.

Although Ukraine had conducted cross-river raids in the region before, during a visit to Washington, Yermak publicly revealed that Ukrainian forces had managed to maintain a continuous presence on the eastern bank of the Dnipro, despite the challenges. This information was disclosed in a transcript released on Tuesday by the Ukrainian presidential office.

After weeks of gloomy headlines, there came a breath of fresh air for Ukraine.

In a recent interview with the Economist, General Valery Zaluzhny reluctantly admitted that the Ukrainian forces had been unable to make a significant dent in the fortified Russian defense lines. Drawing parallels to the battles fought in World War I, Zaluzhnyi remarked, "Much like those times, our present level of technological advancement has left both us and our adversaries perplexed."

Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, captured in his office at the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine premises in Kyiv, Ukraine on June 28, 2023.

Oksana Parafeniuk/The Washington Post/Getty Images

Ukrainians face grim reality of a prolonged war with Russia amid battlefield stalemate

Earlier this summer, Ukraine initiated a comprehensive counteroffensive in the eastern and southern regions of the country. However, their progress was limited as they only made gradual advancements and managed to recapture relatively small settlements.

Ukraine's offensive was impeded by pre-established minefields and fortified structures that Russia had prepared several months in advance. Although Ukraine achieved success in targeting Russian warships in the Black Sea and conducting attention-grabbing drone strikes in Russian territory, which Kyiv typically refrains from commenting on, the front lines have, for the most part, stayed unchanged.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive fell short of expectations, contrasting with the significant progress made in the Kherson region just one year ago, when Russia was compelled to retreat beyond the Dnipro River. Although the liberation of Kherson was a pivotal moment for Ukraine, the city and its surrounding area have been consistently subjected to intensive bombardment by Russian forces over the past year.

According to the Kherson regional military administration, a staggering 409 individuals, including 10 children, have lost their lives in the region due to Russian shelling during this time. On Thursday, the Ukrainian government reported that Russian forces had launched a total of 531 shells into the region within the past 24 hours, with 45 aimed specifically at the city of Kherson. This distressing pattern has unfortunately become a routine burden for the local residents. Tragically, one person was killed and another injured by shelling in the city of Kherson on Thursday morning.

Ukrainian forces near Dnipro River. Russian forces control much of the opposing bank.

Further pushing back Russian forces in the Kherson region could potentially protect more civilians from enemy artillery and, in theory, provide Kyiv with a base to advance south towards occupied Crimea. However, the Ukrainian gains on the left bank of the Dnipro River are currently fragile.

On Thursday, according to a pro-Ukrainian Telegram channel specializing in monitoring military operations, it was reported that a few minor positions had been relinquished on the left bank of the Dnipro River. The Telegram channel reassured that the situation remains entirely under control and explained that the strategic redeployments were conducted with the intention of luring Russian forces while also considering the impracticality and high costs associated with certain positions.

CNN cannot verify the claim, but the US-based Institute for the Study of War, which examines publicly available information from the battlefield, stated that Ukrainian forces conducted "larger-than-usual operations on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on November 15."

A fiery hell

Vladimir Saldo, the governor appointed by Russia in the occupied parts of the Kherson region, made the first official acknowledgement from Russia regarding the Ukrainian advance. On Wednesday, he expressed concern about the presence of Ukrainian armed forces in Krynky village on the left bank of the Dnipro River. Saldo also mentioned that more Russian forces were being deployed to counter the Ukrainian forces. He further stated that the enemy in Krynky was being trapped and subjected to intense attacks, including bombs, rockets, heavy flamethrower systems, artillery shells, and drones.

However, on Wednesday, pro-Kremlin military bloggers expressed that Russia was facing difficulties in its progress in the fight.

CNN is unable to confirm the Russian claims regarding the situation on the left bank. Ukrainian officials have not provided much information about the current operation. However, this advancement across the Dnipro River is important for Ukraine to demonstrate to its Western supporters that it can maintain progress on the battlefield. Diplomatic efforts were further strengthened on Thursday with a visit to Kyiv by the new UK Foreign Secretary, David Cameron, who is making his first official trip abroad since his surprising appointment as the former prime minister.

Destruction caused by a Russian attack at one of DTEK's electricity facilities

DTEK

As winter approaches, Ukraine is fully prepared for potential new Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure. The visit of former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to Kyiv in April of last year is still revered in Ukraine as a significant display of support in the face of Russia's complete invasion.

However, the Ukrainian government is aware that it is in a race against Russia to ensure the provision of its troops, especially when it comes to restocking artillery ammunition for the ongoing fierce battle on the front lines with Russia. This is particularly evident in the eastern Donbas region, where Russia has been deploying troops near a Ukrainian-held area surrounding the devastated city of Avdiivka.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, emphasized the urgent need for the European Union to enhance its capacity in providing ammunition to the Ukrainian military. Germany's defense minister recently acknowledged that the EU will not be able to meet the agreed target of supplying Ukraine with 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition. Kuleba highlighted the necessity for an increased and expedited supply, stating that Ukrainian infantrymen heavily rely on ammunition.

Whether Ukraines Western allies can step up supplies rapidly enough, however, is an open question. Winter is approaching, and Ukraine remains locked in a costly war of attrition with Russia.