Ukraine's Bold Counteroffensive: A Crucial Step to Safeguarding European Security

In the underground basements of Orikhiv, Ukrainian troops take position against the walls, aware that the massive Russian bombs that frequently strike above have the potential to collapse everything upon them. Seeking safety, they cling to the edges of their subterranean world.

Consider the gravity of these risks and the fear endured by the men and women who face them nightly, when you hear discussions about the progress of Ukraine's counteroffensive. It is a slow and dangerous endeavor, marked by bloodshed and exceeding the already difficult expectations. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that this moment might be the most significant for European security since the fall of the Berlin Wall, or even since 1945.

Ukraine's forces are far from reaching their desired position as autumn approaches. They have spent the summer months engaging in grueling battles in areas such as Robotyne, located south of Orikhiv, and to the north of Mariupol. These conflicts have primarily involved navigating through vast minefields and fighting for control over small settlements that can be counted in streets or individual buildings.

Once these villages, like Staromaiorske and Urozhaine, are captured, so little remains standing that there are scant options for the Ukrainian troops to find shelter. Only the victors are left with the debris.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses the 78th United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York City on September 19, 2023.

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Zelensky urges unity in dramatic UN address

The impatience and fatigue regarding Ukraine's progress in the West will likely be overlooked in New York this week. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will showcase his revitalized Ministry of Defense, highlighting a rejuvenated administration prepared for the challenging winter ahead. However, there should be no necessity for him to convince others.

Ukraine's struggle is not merely for its territory; it represents a remarkably significant moment for European security. The outcome of the next two months may shape the direction of the global landscape for the next decade.

The Ukrainian progress on the southern front, which had picked up earlier this month, seems to have partially slowed down again. They have yet to reach Tokmak, the midpoint to Melitopol, and accomplish the goal of cutting off Russian-occupied Crimea from mainland Russia through a land corridor.

The forces from Kyiv are gradually moving south towards Mariupol, but the advance is challenging, with vast stretches of open farmland. The recently captured territory, as shown to CNN by the 35th Marines in August, often consisted of nothing more than the remains of a small municipal building, amidst uneven and damaged rural roads. There is little to gain and little to defend.

Ukrainian soldiers maneuver a Bradley Fighting Vehicle (BFV) in Orikhiv.

The fight remains crucial, despite the challenges ahead. With the approach of winter, the weather is expected to turn cold and the conditions may become wet and muddy, which is not ideal for Ukrainian armored forces. However, it is worth noting that Kyiv's significant advancements last occurred in mid-November of the previous year, following the Russian retreat in Kherson. Given this timeline, it is reasonable to assume that they still have approximately eight weeks remaining.

As soon as the snow falls, Moscow will make further efforts to strengthen its current front line. The daylight hours will be reduced, leaving Ukrainian attacking units much more susceptible as they try to advance deeper into Russian territory. This will amplify the already gruesome task, making it even more brutal.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely relying on the winter season to bolster his position. His forces have displayed more resilience than expected throughout the summer. It is still possible that they could weaken: their manpower is not unlimited, and the continuous Ukrainian strikes on their supply routes pose a risk of a collapse similar to what occurred in Kharkiv last September, at some unknown point in the future. Nonetheless, Russia may manage to maintain its hold.

That could lead to a winter filled with a bleak and oppressive society. The Western countries tirelessly express their unwavering determination to assist Kyiv. However, it is crucial to understand that the numerous billions of dollars of assistance frequently announced by Washington could face uncertainty as the 2024 election campaign approaches.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks with CNN's Wolf Blitzer during an interview on September 19, 2023, in New York.

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Zelensky implores Trump to share Ukraine's peace plan but insists on not ceding territory to Russia.

European support is not fixed and can be subject to change. The unity within the bloc on the war may be undermined by economic pressures and a decrease in US support. Additionally, if there is another winter of expensive fuel prices and upcoming elections, this unity could also be shaken. It is also concerning that the establishment of static front lines in the southern front may lead to an escalation of the war. Ukraine has become more confident in using drones to target Moscow, conducting cross-border raids, and attacking Crimea with missiles that have a greater range. These actions can be seen as a natural progression of Kyiv's military response to an invading neighbor.

Just a year ago, Western officials were extremely apprehensive about the prospect of Russia being under attack. This concern was the reason behind their decision to withhold longer-range missiles from Ukraine, as these missiles had the capability to target Crimea or Russian territory adjacent to Ukraine.

Fast forward to the present, and Crimea is now facing frequent attacks, with little influence from the West, as it appears that these missiles are being manufactured within Ukraine. As winter approaches, and Russian infrastructure strikes intensify, Ukrainian civilians are experiencing the brunt of the damage, leading to an increase in demands for more severe damage to be inflicted on the Russian mainland.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during their meeting in Russia in Tsiolkovsky, Russia on September 13, 2023.

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The West fears a closer Russia and North Korea. China may not

Moscow, on the other hand, seems to be displaying a bit more audacity. Regardless of the result of Putin's meeting with North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, the very fact that the leader of the Kremlin humbly approached a pariah neighbor to request ammunition implies that Putin's list of unacceptable actions is incredibly short. We may never know the outcome of this meeting, or the extent of China's involvement, until its impact is felt on the Ukrainian battlefield.

Additionally, there is a more serious risk of escalation. Recent incidents in Romania and Bulgaria, where fragments from drones have been discovered or detonated within the borders of NATO countries, suggest that what was once unimaginable a year ago is now becoming a reality.

Bulgarian officials provided limited information regarding the arrival of the drone in Tyulenovo, a Black Sea resort. They stated that determining the owner and origin of the drone was not possible. Romanian President Klaus Iohannis denounced the discovery of another suspected batch of Russian drone fragments within a week as a violation of NATO airspace, which he deemed unacceptable.

The perception of the war differs greatly between Western public opinion and that of Russians. For Western nations located on the outskirts of Europe, the conflict seems distant and detached. However, for Russians, the war has become an integral part of daily life. Russian state TV portrays the war as an existential threat from NATO, while televisions in NATO member states present it as an opportunity to severely weaken Russia, albeit carried out by external parties rather than NATO itself.

However, NATO cannot allow the next two months to go by without a stronger sense of urgency. It is essential to recognize that if the Russian situation does not deteriorate significantly before winter sets in, it will pose a significant threat to European security in the coming decade.