Trump's Influence Dominates Montana Senate Race as Rosendale's Hard-Right Stance Challenges GOP's Agenda

Tune in to CNN's "Inside Politics Sunday" at 11 a.m. ET on December 24 to see Manu Raju's coverage of the Montana Senate race. Rep. Matt Rosendale had a chance encounter with former President Donald Trump while fundraising at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month.

Sources described their encounter as brief and polite. Shortly thereafter, the Montana Republican promoted their meeting with photos on social media, praising Trump as "the best president of my lifetime" and emphasizing the need for "strong conservatives" to enact Trump's agenda in the Senate.

However, what frustrated advisers close to the former president was that Rosendale had not yet endorsed Trump for the 2024 election but was already using their encounter to boost his potential Senate bid. It took three days after their interaction in South Florida for Rosendale to finally endorse the former president.

Rosendale's Senate primary run and embrace of the MAGA movement have prompted top Republicans to rally behind Tim Sheehy as their best shot at defeating Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. They see Rosendale as an unreliable candidate who has hindered their quest for the Senate majority in recent election cycles.

Sen. Jon Tester walks back to his office after a vote on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, May 16, 2023, in Washington, DC.

Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post/Getty Images

In a potential race against Sheehy, Rosendale could have a strong chance of winning the GOP primary by positioning himself as the steadfast conservative candidate, particularly if he maintains the support of Trump.

Republican leaders are emphasizing that Sheehy endorsed Trump months ago, while Rosendale waited until mid-December, highlighting Trump's significant influence in primary races and the importance of loyalty. Senator Steve Daines, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, expressed his support for Sheehy's candidacy and noted that Rosendale's endorsement was late in the game. He also encouraged Rosendale to stay in the House and build seniority.

During the summer, Trump had informed Rosendale privately that he would not receive his endorsement if he pursued a Senate run, as per sources. However, if Trump were to endorse Sheehy in the end, it could potentially weaken Rosendale, who has been a polarizing figure in Washington. Additionally, he sided with seven other Republicans and all Democrats in voting for the removal of Kevin McCarthy from the speakership.

If Trump chooses to remain neutral, as some of his advisers anticipate, it could create an opportunity for Rosendale. He is expected to endure a barrage of attack ads from groups affiliated with GOP leaders, but he may receive support from outside organizations that are currently launching a campaign against Sheehy on the airwaves.

During an interview, Rosendale justified the timing of his endorsement of Trump, stating that he believed it would have a greater impact coming roughly a month before the Iowa caucuses. "I wanted to ensure that my endorsement stood out on its own and had a bigger impact, rather than being lost among the crowd of early endorsements," Rosendale explained.

Asked if the former president was annoyed at his late endorsement, Rosendale said, "He didnt convey that message to me" when they spoke at Mar-a-Lago.

GOP primaries loom over Senate map

The decision of whether or not Rosendale will run in the 2024 Senate election is crucial. Democrats are hoping that his potential run will work in their favor, as they face a challenging map in defending 23 seats compared to the GOP's 11. They have only two opportunities to gain seats in Florida and Texas, while they have to defend seats in Ohio, West Virginia, and Montana, all of which Trump won in 2020.

Michigan Senator Gary Peters, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, expressed a preference for a competitive primary. However, he refrained from characterizing Rosendale as a weaker candidate in Montana, pointing out vulnerabilities in Sheehy that will become apparent as the campaign progresses.

As Rosendale considers a run, there are doubts about whether he could match Sheehy's campaign infrastructure and fundraising. Sheehy, a military veteran and leader of an aerial firefighting company, has been campaigning for months.

But Rosendale may get an unexpected boost.

Then-President Donald Trump and Matt Rosendale during a campaign rally at Four Seasons Arena in Great Falls, Montana, in 2018.

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Sheehy has faced aggressive criticism from the Last Best Place PAC, a mysterious super PAC that has spent $1.6 million on negative ads against the Republican candidate. The group, formed recently, is not required to reveal its donors until the following year, and its treasurer, David Lewis, did not disclose the strategists responsible for the ad campaign.

When asked if Senate Majority PAC, the well-funded super PAC associated with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, was involved in the effort, a spokesperson declined to comment. (DSCC chairman Peters stated that the organization would not interfere in any GOP primaries.)

When asked if Democrats should be advocating for Rosendale to enter the race, Tester cautioned, "Be careful what you wish for," pointing out that Rosendale has more political experience than Sheehy.

But Tester told CNN that it wouldnt "make a lick of difference" which candidate he faces.

Top Republicans flatly disagree.

In contrast to 2022, when the NRSC, under different leadership, kept out of primary races altogether, Daines has taken a more active role in supporting candidates he believes have the best chance of winning in November, including Sheehy. He has also strategically aligned himself with Trump to avoid conflicting over candidates in primaries and harming their chances next November.

GOP Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, a former NRSC chairman, stated that GOP primaries continue to be a significant challenge in 2024, and Montana could be one of them.

Daines expressed his belief, based on the polls he reviewed, that "Sheehy would beat" Rosendale in a potential primary. "So I hope Matt stays in that House seat," Daines added. When asked why Rosendale wasn't listening, he responded, "You're going to have to ask him."

Rosendale defended his allegiance to Trump in a statement to CNN this week, asserting that he has consistently supported him and touting Trump as the most effective US leader in his lifetime. He also pledged to be Trump's strongest ally if he returns to the White House in 2025. Additionally, Rosendale criticized opponent Sheehy as "Mitch McConnell's hand-picked candidate" and tried to link him to GOP presidential hopeful Nikki Haley. Sheehy's campaign declined to comment on Rosendale's remarks.

Trump weighs staying neutral

According to a memo dated December 13 and obtained by CNN, the Sheehy campaign reported that their substantial ad campaign in the state has yielded positive results. Their polling indicates a shift in favor of Sheehy, turning around a potential primary win for Rosendale.

In 2022, Trump has opted for a more hands-off approach to the 2024 congressional races, a decision that has garnered support from many Republicans. This shift comes after several of Trump's preferred candidates experienced defeat in the general election last year.

According to three sources familiar with the discussions, Trump has confided in his advisers and allies, expressing that he believes he overextended himself with endorsements during the midterm elections last year. As a result, he is planning to refrain from heavy involvement in the upcoming 2024 congressional battles. This decision is partly influenced by his focus on his own campaign, but also driven by his desire to avoid alienating key conservative voter blocs by deeply engaging in Republican primaries.

Many of Trump's closest advisers welcome his more hands-off approach, but it has frustrated congressional candidates seeking his support, especially if he maintains his lead in the polls and secures the GOP presidential nomination. Sources familiar with his lack of endorsements told CNN.

Trump's lack of interest in throwing his support behind candidates in Montana has surprised many of his allies and advisers, who had anticipated he would want to wield his influence in the state. Trump advisers and allies told CNN that the former president has shown little interest in backing either candidate so far.

A Trump campaign adviser told CNN that it's expected for him to get involved in this race given the stakes, but the adviser added that the president seems hesitant about this one. Additionally, some of Trump's advisers see Rosendale publicizing his encounter with the former president as an attempt to benefit from Trump's name and image to advance his own political career, which they find especially distasteful. Two individuals close to Trump shared this perspective with CNN.

But Rosendale insists there are no issues between him and Trump.

Matt Rosendale declined a phone call from Marjorie Taylor Greene offering to connect him with former President Donald Trump during the intense final moments of a debate on the fourth day of voting for a new speaker of the House on January 7, 2023, in Washington, DC.

Rosendale, who was captured in a photo declining Trump's phone call on the floor while McCarthy was seeking the speakership in January, refused to disclose whether he sought the former president's backing for a Senate run during their conversation at Mar-a-Lago.

CNNs Morgan Rimmer contributed to this report.