Trump's GOP Rivals Feel the Pressure in Their Pre-Holiday Blitz Across Iowa and New Hampshire
GOP rivals scramble to make their mark in Iowa and New Hampshire before the holidays, intensifying campaigning efforts in the last full weekend before the new year Could Haley's popularity surge?
As the holidays draw near and the first Republican nominating contest looms just a month away, the GOP presidential hopefuls will fan out across the early voting states in the next few days for what is likely their final full weekend of intense campaigning before the new year. Former President Donald Trump is set to hold a rally in New Hampshire on Saturday, intending to solidify his hold on a state that played a crucial role in his path to securing the GOP nomination in 2016. Trump will continue with events in Nevada on Sunday and Iowa on Tuesday, as he steps up his end-of-year political efforts.
The surge in campaigning highlights his team's determination to hold onto his strong lead as actual voting approaches. Trump's advisers are worried that his supporters may think he doesn't need their votes due to his lead. "We are ahead by a large margin, but you still need to go out and vote," Trump told his supporters in Iowa on Wednesday night.
Other candidates are racing against time to catch up with the front-runner, as evidenced by their packed schedules aimed at halting Trump's path to the nomination. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will be in New Hampshire on Friday, then shift his focus back to Iowa on Saturday and for the foreseeable future leading up to the January 15 caucuses. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley intends to visit the Hawkeye State on Sunday and stay until the middle of next week. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has eight events scheduled over the next two days in Iowa.
The recent surge in activity comes after a particularly captivating week in the ongoing race, which has been relatively devoid of significant turning points. Trump's continuous legal troubles, including court appearances, a complex series of legal documents, and the unprecedented indictment of a former president, have frequently stolen the spotlight from his competitors as they vie for the attention of Republican voters.
Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis participates in a town hall moderated by CNN's Jake Tapper at Grand View University in Des Moines, Iowa, on December 12, 2023.
Will Lanzoni/CNN
Lessons learned from CNN's Iowa town hall featuring Ron DeSantis
Both Haley and DeSantis made a strong impression this week in their own unique ways. In a significant endorsement, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu backed Haley for president, and the two campaigned together in the state in an effort to gain support for the January 23rd primary. Meanwhile, DeSantis displayed a newfound boldness in attacking Trump during a CNN town hall, showing a heightened determination to challenge the former president at every opportunity.
Despite other indicators, it was clear that Trump's opponents faced a challenging path ahead. The most recent Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll revealed Trump's lead in the Hawkeye State was growing, with 51% of likely caucusgoers selecting him as their top choice. DeSantis and Haley trailed behind significantly, with 19% and 16% support, respectively.
The Des Moines Register highlighted in its poll analysis that no candidate who held a double-digit lead over the second-place contender one month before the caucuses had ever lost.
That's a concerning indicator for DeSantis, who has centered his campaign on a solid performance in the state's caucuses to gain momentum heading into New Hampshire and South Carolina. DeSantis has publicly stated that his operation in Iowa possesses organizational strength that is not reflected in polls and will be influential in rallying Republicans to participate in their local precincts to vote.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks during an event in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on December 7, 2023.
Charlie Neibergall/AP
DeSantis expressed his frustration with pundits and polls during CNN's townhall with Jake Tapper, stating "Iowa voters will choose, not pundits and polls." He also lamented the inaccuracy of polls and the Republicans' failed prediction of a red wave in November 2020. Despite this, there is a growing sense of pessimism among his advisers, with those who were once confident in a victory in Iowa now hedging their outlook in private discussions, according to a source close to the governor's political team.
The source candidly admitted uncertainty about winning in Iowa, and noted that financial concerns could arise depending on DeSantis' performance. DeSantis recently hosted a fundraiser at the Florida governor's mansion to secure donations from across the country. This news has caused frustration for DeSantis' team in New Hampshire, as they feel their state is not receiving the attention they believe it deserves from presidential candidates. It is unclear whether there are plans for more visits to New Hampshire before the Iowa caucuses.
A close ally of the campaign in New Hampshire, who requested anonymity to speak freely, revealed that it is evident the DeSantis strategy team is prioritizing Iowa over the Granite State. The ally expressed disappointment in the lack of campaign effort in New Hampshire, but emphasized unwavering support for DeSantis, stating, "I don't have anyone else to vote for. I think even if Ron weren't running, I would still write his name in."
A Haley surge?
Since June, there have been significant changes in New Hampshire. The last time Trump and DeSantis both visited the state within a 24-hour period, their escalating rivalry was evident in competing events, providing Republican voters with a clear display of their dynamic. The other GOP presidential contenders, who were trailing far behind the two, received little attention from either candidate.
Trump, though, predicted that would change.
"Soon, I dont think hell be in second place," Trump said at an event in Concord. "Soon, Ill be attacking someone else."
Lately, that someone else has been Haley, Trumps former ambassador to the United Nations who has captured the attention of Republican donors and more GOP voters.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley speaks at a town hall in Manchester, New Hampshire, on December 12, 2023.
Robert F. Bukaty/AP
Sununu's endorsement of Haley is seen as a game changer in the upcoming Republican presidential campaign, with Sununu confidently predicting a shift in momentum leading up to the first primary. Choosing Haley over DeSantis and Chris Christie, Sununu emphasized that the race boils down to Haley and Trump, suggesting that Trump is feeling the pressure.
Sununu made a claim without providing any immediate evidence to support it. Both Christie and DeSantis minimized the significance of the endorsement and doubted Haley's ability to win. According to a poll by The Des Moines Register, DeSantis' support in Iowa saw only a minimal increase following an endorsement by the state's popular governor, Kim Reynolds.
Trump shared his own evaluation during his recent appearance in Iowa.
Trump questioned the existence of the Haley surge, stating that he has only heard about it but has not seen any evidence of it. He also mentioned the governor of New Hampshire being associated with Haley.
Nikki Haley, the Republican presidential candidate, addressed her supporters at a Town hall event at McIntyre Ski Area in Manchester, New Hampshire. She was joined by New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who officially endorsed her during the event on December 12, 2023. (Photo by Sophie Park/Getty Images)
Sophie Park/Getty Images
Nikki Haley is trying to shatter the presidential glass ceiling. She rarely mentions it
Haley was warmly welcomed by large crowds during her three-day New Hampshire trip this week, with Sununu introducing her to the audience. Despite this, discussions with voters indicated that many minds are still undecided and opinions are being shaped in the race.
During a stop in Newport, Stephanie Gilson sat behind Haley with her hands full of campaign literature. When asked if she planned to support Haley because of Sununu's endorsement, she shook her head no.
"I'm here to listen and hear what she has to say," Gilson stated, mentioning that she was still conducting research and considering the candidacies of Haley, Christie, and Ramaswamy. "I want to listen more and remain open-minded."
As the Christmas and New Year's holidays approach, campaign advisers acknowledged that time was limited to convince voters like Gilson. Television ads, which are currently saturating the airwaves, are expected to continue throughout much of the holidays.
In 2016, Trump emerged victorious in the New Hampshire primary with 35% of the vote, out of more than 284,000 ballots cast. Republican strategists anticipate the 2024 turnout to potentially double, especially with no competitive Democratic primary for independents and moderates to engage in.
