Trudeau's Political Future Relies on How He Handles the Canada-India Crisis

Michael Bociurkiw, a Canadian global affairs analyst based in Odesa, sheds light on the difficult position Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, finds himself in with regard to foreign policy.

Michael Bociurkiw

Trudeau is currently facing criticism for his delayed response to China's alleged interference in Canada's elections in 2019 and 2021. Adding to his troubles, he now finds himself embroiled in a costly diplomatic conflict with India, the world's most populous democracy, just when he needs their support the most.

In a rather unfortunate timing, Trudeau recently stated in Parliament that Canadian intelligence agencies have been looking into "credible allegations" regarding the involvement of "agents of the government of India" in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh Canadian separatist leader. The incident occurred in June last year outside a Sikh temple in British Columbia while Nijjar was sitting in his truck. Nijjar had been advocating for the establishment of an independent Sikh homeland in northern India known as Khalistan. India has strongly refuted Canada's claim, labeling it as "absurd and motivated."

What has caused surprise among critics is Trudeau's decision to publicly state the allegations before the police investigation concluded. This particular action has sparked anger from the Indian government, who is now insisting that Ottawa present the evidence.

India accuses Canada of being a sanctuary for terrorists following the visa suspension of Canadian nationals. In another puzzling move, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly expelled an Indian diplomat, who was claimed to be the head of Indian intelligence in Canada and likely had knowledge of the alleged assassination. Interestingly, despite the Ukrainian diaspora's plea to act against Russia's aggression in Ukraine, Joly has not taken any action against Russian diplomats.

Facing accusations of sluggishness in addressing the issue of Chinese interference, Trudeau may have felt compelled to expedite proceedings. Given the prime minister's previous involvement in a foreign interference scandal - where allegations suggested he was aware of Chinese meddling in the 2019 and 2021 elections but chose to ignore it for his party's benefit - there was no way he could ignore this information. The consequences would be severe if it were revealed that he had concealed knowledge of a foreign country assassinating a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil. His political career would be over," Yaroslav Baran, from Pendulum, an Ottawa-based political analysis and communications firm, explained to me.

Trans-Pacific diplomatic dog fight

In the midst of a rapidly deteriorating bilateral relationship, diplomats from both sides have been expelled. Additionally, a planned Canadian trade mission has been postponed and trade talks have been put on hold. To further escalate the situation, Delhi has temporarily suspended the visa processing for Canadian citizens and issued warnings against visiting Canada.

At the same time, pressure is mounting on Trudeau to address the lack of information. The Toronto Globe and Mail editorial emphasizes that the Prime Minister must promptly present his case to gain support for the government's actions, both domestically and internationally. Canadians are in need of clarity regarding such a critical issue, especially considering the potential for significant diplomatic and economic consequences.

Oh, Canada!

India serves as a vital counterbalance to China's rise as the dominant superpower of the 21st century, making it a crucial ally for Canada's main partner, the United States. Consequently, the Biden administration's focus on nurturing its close relationship with India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi takes precedence over bilateral ties with Ottawa.

Trudeau and Joly, his former Quebec lieutenant who lacked foreign affairs experience, face a crisis shortly after revealing a highly anticipated and praised Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at prioritizing relations with India and the region as a core aspect of Canadian foreign policy.

This current crisis, following a previous one with China regarding the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou in 2018 on a US warrant for alleged bank fraud and violation of economic sanctions against Iran, puts Canada in a challenging position to enhance connections with these two influential powers in the region. (The charges against Meng were dropped by a federal judge last year.)

{{img_placeholder_2}}

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada September 18, 2023.

Blair Gable/Reuters

India expels Canadian diplomat in tit-for-tat move as spat over assassinated Sikh activist deepens

In addition to Canada's unsuccessful and expensive 2020 campaign for one of the two temporary seats on the UN Security Council, it is also losing its influence as a middle power on the international stage.

"This is a significant issue," Baran explained. "Canada's relationship with China has been severely strained since China retaliated by abducting two Canadians in response to the Meng arrest. The new Indo-Pacific strategy aims to shift focus from China to India, which offers another huge market alongside democracy and the rule of law. India was seen as a potential counterbalance to China."

Trudeau must consider domestic political factors as he faces an upcoming election before 2025. Canadians of Indian descent make up a significant voting group, comprising nearly four percent of the population or 1.3 million individuals. Over half of them are Sikhs, which includes minority opposition leader Jagmeet Singh, whose New Democratic Party helps to keep Trudeau's ruling Liberals in power.

Any deterioration in the relationship with India could have an adverse impact on the struggling Canadian economy. Indian students make up a staggering 40% of overseas foreign students, India ranks as one of Canada's top ten trading partners, and it is the fourth largest contributor to tourism in Canada.

Trudeau, who has weathered three ethics violations, will forever be remembered as the first Canadian prime minister convicted of breaching federal ethics laws. This crisis emerges against a backdrop of declining popularity, attributed to an unyielding rise in the cost of living and a housing crisis. Don't miss out on our complimentary weekly newsletter.

Sign up for CNN Opinions newsletter

Join us on Twitter and Facebook

A cynic might argue that the premature disclosure of the damning evidence against India serves as a distraction from the China interference matter and the accumulating domestic problems. Another perspective suggests that this displays incompetence within the prime minister's and foreign affairs offices.

During an Atlantic Council panel on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, it was acknowledged on Tuesday that influential players are increasingly resorting to transnational repression in order to eradicate or silence their adversaries. Despite Canada's well-intentioned efforts to champion freedom of speech domestically, it unwittingly finds itself caught in the clutches of the very superpowers it seeks to engage with.

Regardless of the circumstances, even for a person referred to as being resilient, the implications of the India crisis for Trudeau could be politically disastrous if not tactfully managed, especially with Washington, Ottawa's longstanding ally, unlikely to offer assistance.