Top Contender from the Caribbean: Igniting Excitement among Diplomats for UN Leadership

When questioned about her potential candidacy for the position of the next Secretary General of the United Nations, Prime Minister Mia Mottley of Barbados responded with a positive gesture, a smile, and left. Informally, however, insiders within the UN believe that she has a strong chance of becoming a leading contender. Despite the fact that the selection process for 2026 is still a long way off, discussions regarding the most favorable candidate for this influential role have already commenced.

The position has traditionally seen a rotation based on geography, suggesting that the next leader of the UN will likely come from the Latin America and Caribbean region. Advocates argue that it is about time for a female candidate, given that the position has been held exclusively by men for the past 78 years.

Within the United Nations headquarters in New York, Mottley is among the names being discussed as a possible contender. Two sources have indicated that former Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, plans to launch a campaign soon, though a representative for Santos has denied this.

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Rafael Grossi, an Argentinian diplomat and the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is frequently mentioned as a potential successor to the current UN Secretary-General, António Guterres. Other names that come up in discussions include Alicia Bárcena, the foreign affairs secretary of Mexico; Rebecca Grynspan, a prominent UN official and former vice president of Costa Rica; and Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés, a former president of the UN General Assembly and former minister of Ecuador. However, it is often the name of Mottley that generates the most excitement. Although Mottley has not confirmed her intentions to run, one UN diplomat expressed great enthusiasm and said, "I would be thrilled if she did."

Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines stated that he would unequivocally offer his vote to her if she were to embark on a campaign. He expressed his belief that she possesses the qualities to excel as the Secretary-General, emphasizing his unwavering support for whatever path she chooses to pursue.

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Could Mottley run?

Mottley became prime minister of Barbados in 2018 and won a second term in a landslide election four years later.

Internationally, she gained attention for severing her country's post-colonial ties with the British monarchy, advocating for slavery reparations, addressing climate change, and advocating for the reform of global financial institutions, including the International Monetary Fund and other multilateral banks. Mottley is also outspoken when it comes to powerful nations. During her recent address to the General Assembly, she questioned the disparity in access to Venezuela's oil and gas, asking why Chevron and the European Union can acquire it while the people of the Caribbean cannot benefit from the 35 percent discount offered by Venezuela's people.

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In 2022, Mottley led the Bridgetown Initiative, a political strategy aimed at improving the global financial architecture and development finance for greater fairness, especially in light of the climate crisis. This initiative aims to modify the lending practices to developing nations and establish a dedicated emergency fund for climate-related disasters.

Additionally, in April, Mottley partnered with the current UN chief Guterres to announce the enhancement of her program, referred to as Bridgetown 2.0. The revised plan proposes six key priorities for development finance, which will be deliberated on the global stage during the IMF-World Bank group annual meeting in October, COP28 in November, and the Summit of the Future in 2024.

Numerous diplomats, both in New York City and abroad, possess faith in Mottley's ability to advocate for issues concerning the developing world as the United Nations leader. Additionally, they have confidence in her capacity to incorporate her distinct style of leadership into the position. According to a UN diplomat, there is a scarcity of leaders in recent history, apart from Obama, who have captivated the international community to the extent that Mottley does.

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However, caution has been raised about the political risks associated with her actions. Given that this initiative poses a significant challenge to the established order in international finance, UN expert Richard Gowan from the International Crisis Group suggests that Mottley must strategize her next moves carefully.

Moreover, some observers highlight the potential consequences of attempting to disrupt current systems, as it could potentially anger one or more of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council who have ultimate decision-making power in the Secretary-General selection process.

Mottleys office did not respond to multiple interview requests.

Fighting for a woman at the helm

Is it too soon to start discussing who the next leader of the UN will be, considering that the next Secretary General will assume office in January 2027? While some may argue that it is premature, others view it as a necessary conversation to address the challenges faced by the organization, such as criticism and geopolitical gridlock in the influential Security Council. Elina Valtonen, Finland's foreign minister, emphasizes the importance of initiating this discussion, as it is crucial to shape the future of the UN and the Security Council.

Valtonen and other advocates argue that the organization should have appointed its first female leader long ago. "While merit should be the primary consideration for this position," she added, "it would be truly remarkable if, once again, a woman is not chosen."

In 2016, the selection process became slightly more transparent, although it has historically been surrounded by secrecy. To be eligible, candidates must first be nominated by a country, typically their own, and then receive a recommendation from the Security Council to the General Assembly.

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In the previous selection process in 2016, several countries committed to exclusively nominating women candidates. This initiative is now being reintroduced for the upcoming selection process. In the said year, a total of thirteen candidates participated, out of which seven were women. However, despite being considered as the leading contender, Portuguese diplomat Guterres emerged as the ultimate choice for the position. Ben Donaldson, the head of campaigns at the United Nations Association of the United Kingdom, remarked, "There is always a significant number of men who aspire to be candidates."

This year, he expressed his hope that the message would be widely understood and accepted by the majority of states and civil society, emphasizing that no state should nominate male candidates. The collective effort is aimed at intensifying the disapproval of such nominations, with the objective of preventing their occurrence altogether.

Susana Malcorra, a former candidate in the 2016 Secretary General elections, and the co-founder and president of the advocacy group Global Women Leaders Voices, is also actively involved in ensuring that political pressure fosters the emergence of female candidates in the upcoming cycle.

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Not everyone agrees with the endeavor.

Dennis Francis, the current president of the 78th UN General Assembly hailing from Trinidad and Tobago, disagrees with the notion that men should abstain from running. He firmly believes that both men and women should participate in equal numbers. He stated, "I am of the opinion that men should also participate in the upcoming elections, just as women should. However, my genuine desire is for a woman to emerge victorious in these circumstances, not solely because she competed against other women. Sending such a message would be inappropriate."

Given the frozen state of the powerful Security Council on various issues since the start of Russia's war in Ukraine, it is difficult to envision the members of the council ultimately reaching a consensus on any specific candidate. "All I can say is, get your popcorn ready," remarked Julia Maciel, a diplomat hailing from Paraguay.