The US-Israel wartime alliance faces an imminent and formidable challenge

Extending the pause in Israel's war with Hamas each day saves lives. The second extension of the truce, lasting one day, went into effect early Thursday. However, the temporary ceasefire also brings to light the moral, political, and military challenges that will arise when full-scale hostilities inevitably resume - highlighting potential strategic and humanitarian differences between the Biden administration and the Israeli government.

The truce has been surprisingly successful, considering it is taking place between Israel and Hamas, who both seek the other's elimination. However, there is a sense that a crucial moment is approaching when Israel will decide how long it can continue to hold off its military offensive. This makes the debate about the next steps in Gaza more urgent, as the US aims to extend the pause in fighting in the medium term and Israel tries to manage expectations of restraint in the coming days.

Amid a temporary truce between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, Palestinian children can be seen walking among the houses devastated by Israeli strikes during the conflict. This scene took place at the Khan Younis refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip on November 29, 2023. REUTERS/Mohammed Salem

Mohammed Salem/Reuters

US pressing Israel to move civilians out of way if Israel attacks in southern Gaza

Will Israel listen to US pleas for a more surgical approach?

Amidst the deepening tragedy of a cruel war, profound questions are being asked, as moments of joy from the emergence of hostages are overshadowed by uncertainty and sorrow. Israel is confronted with the distressing claim that the youngest Israeli hostage, 10-month-old Kfir Bibas, his brother, and his mother may no longer be alive. The future of the remaining hostages in Gaza is also uncertain, adding to the worsening humanitarian crisis in the territory. The World Health Organization has warned that without urgent repair to the already rudimentary health service, more Gazans could die from disease than bombing. Additionally, the occupied West Bank is experiencing growing unrest, with the Israeli military's actions resulting in the tragic deaths of two Palestinian children in the city of Jenin. This adds to the more than 240 Palestinians killed by Israeli soldiers and settlers in the West Bank since October 7, as reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

Israel has been clear about its intention to completely eliminate the Hamas terrorist group, following the October 7 attacks that resulted in the deaths of 1,200 people. The government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, sees the attacks as a direct threat to the nation and feels it has no option but to completely defeat Hamas. Netanyahu dismissed the notion that a prolonged pause in the fighting would make it difficult for Israel to resume its actions against Hamas, stating unequivocally that they would continue their efforts.

Israel's initial attack on Hamas resulted in significant civilian casualties in the densely populated Palestinian enclave, prompting widespread protests in the US and around the world. This has placed political pressure on President Joe Biden from within his own electoral coalition. The potential for a second wave of Israeli offensive in southern Gaza, which could be even more deadly, now threatens to create divisions between Washington and Netanyahu's government and military leaders. According to CNN's MJ Lee, Jennifer Hansler, and Katie Bo Lillis, US officials, including Biden, have communicated to the Israelis that they do not want to see a repeat of air strikes that caused extensive destruction and civilian casualties. One senior administration official stressed the need for Israel to exercise more caution, care, and precision in their targeting.

Following the October 7 attacks, Biden showed solidarity with Israel and Netanyahu by visiting the Jewish state to express condolences to the victims. It remains to be seen whether the Israeli prime minister will seriously consider Biden's request to increase protection for Palestinian civilians, as this will likely be a focal point of the upcoming discussions on Thursday between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is currently in Israel, and high-level Israeli officials.

Israels moral and military dilemmas

The Israeli government is facing a dilemma as it balances the goal of rescuing all hostages and the need to continue its military operation after a temporary halt that allowed Hamas to regroup and plan for another attack.

The Israeli prime minister, facing deep unpopularity in the wake of surprise Hamas attacks, is struggling to balance political pressures from hostage families seeking the release of their loved ones and the demands of his right-wing coalition members for strong action. Additionally, he must navigate the potential clash between his desire to target Hamas and US concerns about civilian casualties in Gaza. The heavy-handed military tactics of Israel are also under scrutiny, as fears grow about the impact of civilian casualties on future attitudes and recruitment for extremist groups and terrorism.

Retired US Army Lt. Col. Daniel Davis stated that the Israeli leader believes that removing Hamas is the solution to achieving peace in Israel. However, he cautioned that the military actions being taken will not lead to peace. Speaking to Kasie Hunt on CNN International's "State of the Race," Davis shared his firsthand experience in Afghanistan, where he saw that the more Taliban fighters were killed, the more enemies were created, especially when there was a high number of civilian casualties.

Israel claims that it makes every effort to avoid harming civilians, while Hamas strategically positions its forces among the civilian population, using places like hospitals and apartment buildings as shields. Israeli officials argue that although Washington wishes to see more precise targeting of Hamas should the conflict reignite, this may not be feasible given the conditions in Gaza.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett accused Hamas of deliberately sacrificing Palestinian civilians to stir global anger against Israel, insisting that there is no magical solution to the situation. US and Israeli officials are considering allowing civilians sent to southern Gaza to return north, with some also discussing the need for the creation of safe zones for civilians in the south. However, practical difficulties remain, including the devastation of northern Gaza by Israeli advances and the lack of options for millions of people living in the enclave surrounded by Israel and closed off from Egypt.

Amid a heated debate on strategies for the next phase of the war, the prospect of resuming fighting while Hamas still holds hostages is deeply disturbing for their families. The recent lull in violence has given political relief to both Netanyahu and Biden, but this respite would be short-lived once the guns start firing again.

Yehuda Beinin, father of Liat Beinin who was freed by Hamas, expressed the growing concern among families of hostages that their loved ones are not the top priority for Netanyahu's government. "This naturally creates a lot of fear that the hostages will be in danger again due to renewed Israeli bombing," said Beinin, whose son-in-law, Aviv Atzili, is still believed to be held captive.

Biden administration steps up diplomacy

The Biden administrations current priorities are:

  A further extension of the truce.

  The release of all the hostages from Gaza.

  The alleviation of a horrendous humanitarian crisis in the enclave.

  Supporting Israels effort to prevent future terror attacks.

Shifting the attention to the post-war administration of Gaza in preparation for addressing the longstanding issue of diplomacy to end the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

Challenges with Israel may arise due to differing priorities and urgency, especially in relation to the Netanyahu government. Biden is deeply vested in the conflict for humanitarian, political, and geopolitical purposes. In a statement on Wednesday, the president emphasized the significant role of the US and Qatar in negotiating the ceasefire that resulted in the release of numerous hostages and the delivery of substantial humanitarian aid to support the civilians in Gaza.

Bidens backing of Netanyahu has led to political backlash both at home and abroad. The US's foreign policy objectives in the Arab world and beyond are at stake as governments respond to the public outrage over the civilian casualties in Gaza. Key initiatives, such as the efforts to solidify peace between Israel and Arab states, have been severely impacted. The visual images of Palestinian casualties have caused division within the Democratic Party and raised concerns about the turnout of younger, more progressive voters in the 2024 elections. Additionally, there is growing concern about the backlash from Republicans if Biden attempts to impose limits on Netanyahu.

While there is no indication that unwavering US support for Israel is in jeopardy, there is a real risk of heightened tensions in the relationship due to differing opinions on the future course of the conflict.

The alignment of vital national interests of the United States and Israel is not always guaranteed. The extent to which Netanyahu can adjust military strategy or ease pressure on Biden will be closely monitored in the coming days.

As tensions rise, how much will Israel test Biden's loyalty, patience, and political strength? And ultimately, will Netanyahu's goal of eliminating Hamas outweigh all other factors?