The Ultimate Premier League Survival Handbook: Foolproof Strategies to Escape Relegation!

Burnley got off to a good start in the Premier League with a 1-1 draw against Nottingham Forest on Monday Night Football, earning their first point of the season. However, what exactly do teams struggling at the bottom need in order to survive? Luton, after five weeks, still haven't managed to secure any points and suffered a 1-0 defeat against Fulham over the weekend. Meanwhile, Everton and Sheffield United are also stuck on a single point, with Burnley, and are currently looking down at the relegation zone due to goal difference.

In May, the margins are expected to remain narrow. However, what are the essential qualities possessed by successful teams in avoiding relegation? Here, statistician Will Rickson delves into the data to determine the typical number of wins, points, and goals needed to prevent demotion. Additionally, he uncovers the impact of defensive stability and various playing styles on the end result.

How many wins and points?

Starting with eleven victories is a favorable position. In a 38-game Premier League season, no team has faced relegation with 11 or more wins, while nine teams have been relegated with just 10 wins. Nevertheless, such occurrences have become increasingly rare. In fact, Cardiff in 2018/19 is the only team to have been relegated with 10 wins in the last 11 seasons, compared to five teams in the preceding 10 seasons.

(Source: Datawrapper)

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The average number of points needed for survival has gradually decreased due to the increasing strength of the top teams. In the past seven seasons, the total points required to avoid relegation is over three points lower compared to the period between 1995 and 2002.

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Teams that have managed to accumulate 35 points or more in the past 11 seasons have a 98% chance of avoiding relegation. Out of all the teams that achieved or surpassed this benchmark, only four have faced relegation. Notably, Burnley is the sole team to achieve this feat in the most recent seven seasons.

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Last season serves as a cautionary tale that simply being an established team in the Premier League does not ensure safety. The three teams that were relegated had a collective experience of 23 consecutive top-flight seasons. In comparison, the 12 teams that were relegated in the previous four seasons had a total of only 27 seasons of experience.

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How many goals need to be scored?

It was a remarkable achievement for all three promoted teams last term - Fulham, Bournemouth, and Nottingham Forest - as they defied the odds and managed to retain their Premier League status. This feat has only been accomplished four times in the history of the league, occurring previously in the seasons of 2001/02, 2011/12, and 2017/18. Looking at the bigger picture, out of the 84 teams that have been relegated in the 38-game seasons, 35 of them had earned promotion just a season prior. This means that 42 percent of the promoted teams find themselves back in the lower division within a year.

Scoring an average of one goal per game is often the key to securing survival in the Premier League. Throughout the league's illustrious history, achieving a single goal translates to an average of 1.03 points. Therefore, if a team manages to score 38 goals in a season, they would accumulate a total of 39 points. Exceptionally, only three teams out of the last seven relegated sides have surpassed the 38-goal mark: Bournemouth, who scored 40 goals in the 2019/20 season, Leicester with 51 goals in the previous campaign, and Leeds, who netted 48 times also in the same season.

Teams that fail to meet the goal-per-game average will face a challenging task to stay afloat. Out of the 32 teams that have scored fewer than 32 goals per season in Premier League history, only eight managed to survive, indicating a mere 25 percent chance of survival.

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What about the goal scorers?

Having a reliable goal scorer may not be as advantageous in a relegation struggle as commonly believed.

Over the past 13 seasons starting from 2010/11, a total of 19 players have managed to score 10 or more goals in a single Premier League season, yet have ended up being relegated. This includes three players from the previous season. In 11 out of the last 13 seasons, there has been at least one team that faced relegation despite having a player with 10 or more goals in their squad.

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Out of the last 12 teams that were relegated, seven of them had at least one player who scored in double figures. Additionally, only one of those 12 teams did not have a player who scored eight or more goals during a season. Fulham's top scorer in the 2020/21 season was Bobby Decordova-Reid, who scored five goals.

How many goals can be shipped?

Relying too much on a single player for goals is also not advantageous. In fact, the last five players who scored over 39 percent of their team's goals during a relegation season all belonged to teams that ultimately finished in 20th place. These players include Teemu Pukki (twice), David McGoldrick, Jermain Defoe, and Charlie Austin.

How many goals can be shipped?

It seems that the critical threshold for goals conceded in the battle to avoid relegation is approximately 61 goals. On average, the team finishing in 17th place allows 60.4 goals, while the average for the 18th-placed team is 62.8. Taking this as a starting point, only seven out of the 30 teams that were relegated in the past 10 seasons conceded fewer than 61 goals.

Teams have been defying this trend in recent years, with a noticeable increase. Over the last three seasons, ten teams have managed to survive even after conceding 61 or more goals. A prime example is Tottenham from the previous season, who finished eighth despite conceding a league-record 63 goals.

Throughout the history of the Premier League, no team that conceded fewer than 50 goals has ever been relegated. Birmingham in the 2005/06 season were particularly unlucky in this regard, as they went down with exactly 50 goals conceded. That same season, West Ham finished eighth, conceding five more goals than Birmingham. Similarly, Burnley fell victim to relegation in 2021/22, despite conceding 53 goals, which was 26 fewer than Leeds, who managed to survive one spot above them.

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The Leeds team in the 2021/22 season achieved a remarkable feat by surviving relegation in a 38-game Premier League season despite conceding more than 75 goals. This achievement has been matched only by Wigan in 2009/10, making them the only two teams to accomplish such a feat. Additionally, Bournemouth's survival last season, with 71 goals conceded, was also considered extremely rare. Aside from these instances, only West Brom in 2010/11, along with Leeds and Wigan, managed to stay in the league despite conceding 71 or more goals.

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What's the most effective playing style?

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If we examine the two opposite ends of playing style - adopting a defensive approach and capitalizing on swift counterattacks (indicated by the 'direct speed' metric) or adopting a more patient strategy focused on methodical build-up play (measured by the 'passes per sequence' metric) - we can assess which approach has proven to be the most successful in the battle for survival for teams that have accumulated 41 or fewer points in the past five years.

Fifty percent of teams that had above-average passes per sequence managed to survive, while 53 percent of teams with above-average direct speed also survived. This suggests that there is no definitive formula for avoiding relegation based on playing style.

Nevertheless, when examining the group of seven teams with neutral playing styles, located closest to the center line in the graphic below, six of them managed to avoid relegation. Only Huddersfield in the 2018/19 season faced relegation. On the other hand, three out of the four teams situated closest to the top left corner - representing the most direct playing style - were relegated, with only Nottingham Forest surviving last season.

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So, what's the conclusion?

Teams battling to stay afloat should aim to secure at least 11 victories within a season and accumulate 35 points or more. When it comes to goal scoring, an average of one per match should be sufficient, eliminating the necessity for a prominent goal scorer.

Teams aim to concede fewer than 61 goals throughout the campaign, with the goal of shipping less than 50 goals to ensure their survival. In terms of style, imitating the tactics of Manchester City or adopting an all-out direct approach does not seem to enhance a team's chances. Instead, a successful approach seems to involve a balanced combination of patient build-up and directness.