The Surprising State That Could Topple Trump in the Primaries

Donald Trump, the former President, is the clear frontrunner in the race for the 2024 Republican nomination. He is currently leading with over 60% support in several national surveys of the GOP primary and is also ahead in all the early states that have been polled.

However, recent data and past events indicate that Trump may face challenges in the important first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire. Republicans in the Granite State, who do not consider Trump as their preferred candidate, appear to be exploring other options and may not make a final decision until later in the campaign.

Take a look at the most recent survey conducted by the University of New Hampshire, which reveals the results of the GOP primary for the states. In this survey, Trump emerged as the frontrunner with a commanding 39%, leaving the other candidates far behind. Among the remaining candidates, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis all secured between 10% and 13% of the primary vote.

Donald Trump, the former President and Republican presidential candidate, poses for a selfie with David Andritsakis, a campaign intern and UNH student, at the launch of his campaign headquarters in Manchester, New Hampshire, on June 27, 2023.

CNN Poll: Trump maintains lead in New Hampshire, while Ramaswamy, Haley, Christie, and DeSantis vie for second place.

DeSantis, however, faces disappointing results in the poll, as his numbers have sharply declined throughout the year. In UNH's January poll, he had held a commanding lead with 42%, but has since experienced a downward trend.

Trump, on the other hand, remains consistently stable. Recent surveys conducted by UNH indicate that he has consistently garnered between 37% and 42% of the vote in the last three polls.

This distinct characteristic sets New Hampshire apart. In contrast to his popularity on a national level, Trump's support in this particular state falls significantly below 50%. Notably, even when considering voters' second choices, he fails to surpass the 50% mark.

Trump's current poll approval rating of 39% falls short of the 46% he attained in the recent Fox Business polls conducted in Iowa and South Carolina, where voters expressed their preference. However, it is evident that Trump can be defeated in New Hampshire if the remaining approximately 60% of voters who do not support him unite behind a single candidate.

Given the available data, accomplishing that may prove more challenging than it sounds. However, I believe it is feasible.

The noteworthy aspect lies in the stability of Trump's portion of the vote in the New Hampshire primary. This reveals a locked-in base of supporters for him, but it also indicates a lack of growth in his popularity.

Trump supporters are significantly more likely (69%) to express certainty in their candidate choice compared to supporters of other candidates (18%). Consequently, this poses a significant challenge for non-Trump candidates who cannot rely on assured support during the primary election.

However, considering an alternate perspective, this implies that a significant portion of the New Hampshire Republican voters are actively seeking an alternative to Trump. This is evident as 82% of voters who choose someone other than Trump are not fully committed to their chosen candidate at this time.

These voters might be inclined to wait until a more viable alternative to Trump emerges before pledging their support. It remains uncertain if such a candidate will indeed come forward, but it is a plausible possibility. In light of DeSantis' significant decline in the UNH polling, Christie, Haley, and Ramaswamy have all garnered double-digit support in their initial appearances.

Past is prologue

This scenario has occurred previously with Trump. Let's recall the 2016 Iowa caucuses, where Trump's performance aligns with his current standing in the polls, resulting in a second-place finish. Meanwhile, the eventual winners in Iowa, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, had negligible support, polling in the single digits.

This time, New Hampshire presents the ideal location for an unexpected victory over a strong frontrunner.

Historically, no other candidate on a national level has experienced defeat in a primary despite possessing such a substantial advantage in the polls, similar to Trump's current situation. Nevertheless, such circumstances have occurred in New Hampshire, and relatively recently.

During the 2000 election cycle, the leading candidate for the Republican party, George W. Bush, had secured 45% of the vote in the UNH polling by this point. Elizabeth Dole followed closely behind with 15%, while John McCain garnered 12% of the vote. However, Dole made the decision to suspend her campaign before the New Hampshire vote took place.

Interestingly, McCain went on to surpass Bush, winning with a 49% majority compared to Bush's 30%.

Former President Donald Trump, left, and President Joe Biden.

Reuters

The group that won Trump the election in 2016 may win it for him again in 2024

The Arizona senator won primarily due to support from moderate and independent voters, which could be a strategy for a Trump challenger to pursue. Surveys have shown that Trump struggles with these voters, as indicated by his 23% support among moderates, 23% support among self-identified independents (or Democrats), and 14% support among those not registered with the Republican Party, according to the UNH poll.

In New Hampshire, these voter groups have a greater influence in the primaries compared to other early-voting states. This is because of the state's overall more moderate electorate and the fact that independents are allowed to vote in the primaries. In 2016, New Hampshire GOP primary voters were twice as likely to identify as moderates and independents compared to Iowa Republican caucusgoers.

Keep in mind that the winner of the Iowa GOP caucuses rarely emerges victorious in the New Hampshire GOP primary. This has never occurred in modern primary history when a sitting president was not running in the Republican primaries.

However, even if someone becomes the equivalent of John McCain in 2024, it may not have a significant impact in the long term. For instance, George W. Bush rebounded from his loss in New Hampshire in 2000 to eventually secure the Republican nomination.

New Hampshire is just a building block to beating Trump. It will take a lot more.