The Role of the General Public in Preventing Future Mass Shootings

Peter Bergen, CNN's national security analyst and vice president at New America, along with Laura Tillman, a producer of the podcast "In the Room with Peter Bergen," expressed their own opinions regarding the responses often seen after large-scale mass shootings in the United States, such as the recent tragedy in Maine where 18 victims lost their lives and 13 others were injured. These responses commonly involve calls to restrict or prohibit the sale of semi-automatic weapons, as well as the implementation of "red flag" laws in certain states to prevent firearms from falling into the hands of individuals who may pose a danger to themselves or others.

However, despite repeated attempts, the United States has had limited success in enacting extensive gun control legislation. Consequently, a sense of powerlessness often prevails.

Nevertheless, there are encouraging initiatives being undertaken by law enforcement agencies and psychologists in the US to gain a better understanding of the process that leads a mass shooter towards violence. Additionally, efforts are being made to dissuade or redirect these individuals, who are predominantly male, from engaging in violent acts. Officials emphasize that the public's involvement is vital in supporting these endeavors.

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The increase in mass shootings has inadvertently provided investigators with valuable information for profiling the usual perpetrator, giving rise to the field of "threat management." Leading this effort is the FBI's Behavioral Analysis Unit located in Quantico, Virginia, which we had the opportunity to visit earlier this year for the Audible podcast, "In the Room with Peter Bergen."

The files of the Behavioral Analysis Units contain a collection of cases, encompassing past shootings as well as individuals that the FBI is closely monitoring for potential shooter tendencies.

We recently held a meeting with Karie Gibson, the unit's chief and a notable FBI special agent with expertise in psychology. Gibson ardently believes that certain mass shootings can be preempted due to the identifiable patterns frequently exhibited by mass shooters.

Gibson observes that potential mass killers typically commence their journey with a "particular grievance, such as a perceived offense or humiliation. Unable to overcome it, they develop an intense personal fixation. Subsequently, these individuals begin contemplating violent means to address their grievance."

Following this, individuals who aspire to commit acts of violence start delving into the study of weaponry, tactics, and strategies used in past attacks, amassing knowledge from the actions of previous mass shooters.

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According to Gibson, the progression towards violence starts with preparation. The individual intending to carry out the attack conducts a dry run or security probe to ensure their success. Ultimately, the actual attack takes place.

So, how can one intervene and divert someone from this path to violence?

The Behavioral Analysis Unit collaborates with local law enforcement officials in all 56 of the FBI's field offices across the US. While these officials are experienced in dealing with criminals in their respective areas, they might not always have the knowledge or information on potential shooters who don't have a documented history of violence.

According to Gibson, when she joined the Behavioral Analysis Unit eight years ago, they used to receive approximately 150 referrals per year from local officials. However, the number has now increased to over 350 referrals annually. In many of these cases, the combined efforts of the FBI, local law enforcement, and community members have successfully thwarted potential acts of violence.

Inquiring about the confidential nature of the FBI's work in such instances, we requested Gibson to provide an illustration of the approach followed by the Behavioral Analysis Unit in diverting individuals away from the path of violence.

Gibson shared a scenario involving a troubled young man grappling with depression and contemplating suicide. With his parents preoccupied by their efforts to sustain the family's livelihood, they remained disconnected from their son's emotional challenges.

The teenager became fixated on incidents involving school shooters, committing the details of various shootings to memory. Subsequently, the family engaged with the local sheriff, who took the young man under his wing and accompanied him to mental health appointments. Eventually, the teenager managed to overcome his fixation and pursue higher education, without any awareness of the FBI's involvement in steering him away from violence.

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Although not all mass shooters suffer from severe psychiatric illness, many of them may experience emotional distress or turmoil. Some individuals may be depressed, while others have endured significant personal losses such as the death of a loved one, unemployment, or the end of a relationship. These situations can leave potential shooters feeling isolated, without anyone around to recognize any worrisome behavior.

The FBI conducts research on individuals closely associated with potential shooters, referred to as "bystanders" by the Bureau. These bystanders are often peers or family members who are more likely to come across concerning social media posts or hear alarming remarks from someone heading towards a violent path.

It is these bystanders who possess the ability to provide the most effective early warnings. Gibson acknowledges that bystanders may not always receive a direct response when they inquire about the person's intentions - the individual might evade the questions or deceive. However, it is crucial to still inform the authorities.

According to a US government assessment, when a bystander becomes aware of important information about a possible shooter but chooses not to act, there is a 16 times higher likelihood that the individual will commit an act of violence. This is due to the potential shooter interpreting the bystander's silence as permission. Gibson explains that individuals planning attacks often crave attention and feel ignored by others.

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The most important piece of advice Gibson says she can offer to bystanders is to speak up and tell someone they trust about their concerns.

Mary O'Toole, a leading expert in threat management and former FBI special agent, advises relatives who have concerns about a loved one to take measures to restrict their access to firearms. The high prevalence of guns in the US is a key factor that sets it apart in terms of mass shootings. With more firearms than people, implementing stricter gun laws could significantly reduce the incidence of shootings and potentially save lives, although other forms of violence may still persist.

Given the challenging political landscape in the United States, where implementing more stringent gun laws proves to be an arduous task, it may be worthwhile to instead focus on identifying individuals at risk of committing acts of violence and devising effective intervention strategies to prevent future mass shootings.