The Republican Party's Path to Power: Unveiling the 2020 Election Denialism

Rep. Mike Johnson's ascent to power in the House is strongly linked to the decline of former Vice President Mike Pence and the overwhelming influence of ex-President Donald Trump. This trend clearly highlights that in order to gain Republican power, one must first embrace the denial of the 2020 election results. Johnson, who actively worked to impede the certification of President Joe Biden's victory, garnered support from pro-Trump lawmakers, ultimately leading to his elevation to the speakership last week.

Pence, who had been stuck in the single digits in surveys for months, suspended his run for the White House over the weekend. Despite his tortured explanations about the constitutionally correct decision to not overturn Biden's 2020 election win in Congress, Pence failed to convince grassroots Republicans who had bought into the ex-president's false claims of victory. This places Pence among the swelling ranks of Republicans, such as former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney and retiring Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, whose careers were destroyed for contradicting Trump's lies.

Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event in Las Vegas on October 28, 2023.

Ian Maule/Getty Images

Trump, who once seemed to support threats against Pence on January 6th, is now urging his former Vice President to endorse him. The base of Trump's 2024 campaign lies in the falsehood that he was unjustly and illegally removed from the White House, and he is determined to reclaim it. Having already undermined the faith of millions of his supporters in the electoral system, Trump is now on a mission to discredit another crucial democratic institution - the courts. In the recent days, the ex-president has intensified his social media tirades against the judge overseeing a fraud trial in New York that involves him, his adult sons, and his company. This comes after he received a second fine last week for violating a gag order by seemingly attacking court personnel on social media.

The trial, coupled with Trump's efforts to sway public opinion through inflammatory remarks, sets the stage for an unprecedented election year. As the leading contender for the GOP, he faces the daunting prospect of four criminal trials, making it possible for him to be a convicted felon by Election Day in November 2024. In one of these criminal cases, specifically the federal election subversion case, the judge recently reinstated a gag order against him despite his request for a temporary pause during his appeal.

Trump's outlook for the coming week is not expected to improve, as his adult children are anticipated to be summoned as witnesses in a civil case in New York. Given that the judge has already determined that the Trump Organization engaged in fraudulent activities, the former president is characterizing the civil prosecution as an attempt to sabotage his aspirations for the 2024 presidential campaign. For example, he falsely claimed in a fundraising email earlier this month that the trial in New York aims to keep him off the campaign trail and threaten him with severe consequences for the Trump Organization. While this assertion is untrue, it is likely to resonate with Trump's most devoted followers.

Pence bows to the inevitable

The failure of Pences campaign says as much about a brand of Republicanism that may be gone forever as it does his own political skills.

The former vice president's campaign aimed to bring the GOP back to its pre-Trump era by championing social conservatism, traditional hardline fiscal policies, and a strong approach to foreign policy. This stood in contrast to his former boss's admiration for autocrats like Russian President Vladimir Putin.

However, his failure to even make it to the Iowa caucuses, the first GOP nominating contest in January, suggests that the party, still under the influence of Trump, is unwilling to confront the truth about the 2020 election and may have permanently turned away from Reagan-style Republicanism. As Pence traveled through early voting states, grappling with misconceptions about his power to overturn the election result, it seemed as though he was trying to win over a party that no longer existed. In August, he told CNN that he had no authority to reject or send back electoral votes and emphasized that he fulfilled his duty under the Constitution of the United States by the grace of God.

However, the previous vice president, who attempted to take credit for the popular elements of Trump's presidency while avoiding backlash for his role in certifying the election in Congress, realized that in the modern GOP, Trump's popularity surpasses the importance of truth. Surprisingly, it took him a considerable amount of time to realize that his campaign was hopeless. Adding to Pence's embarrassment, Trump insisted that his former second-in-command endorse him, despite Pence's campaign being against the ex-president's populism.

Although Pence's standing in the polls is low, he is the most prominent Republican candidate to withdraw from a 2024 presidential campaign thus far. His departure may slightly increase the chances for other contenders vying to become an alternative to Trump before voting commences in January.

"The narrowing of this race was predicted by everyone," stated former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie during an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union" on Sunday. He acknowledged that while the process may not be as speedy as some would prefer, it is indeed happening. Christie, who is a 2024 hopeful with slim chances, expressed his willingness to challenge Donald Trump when voting in New Hampshire begins.

However, considering Trump's strong hold, there is no guarantee that a narrowing field will pose a threat to the former president's lead within the limited time frame. A different lesson that Trump's rivals could take away is that forcefully condemning his denial of the 2020 election results is likely to be detrimental to their own campaigns. In fact, candidates such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley have cautiously criticized Trump indirectly regarding his disregard for the constitution and potential legal issues tied to his efforts to overturn the election. They have advocated for moving forward from past controversies and have refrained from delving into the specifics of Trump's assault on democracy.

Johnson, the influential Republican leader, aligns with the prevalent sentiment within his party by expressing doubt over Biden's election victory. Despite assuming the position of the most powerful elected Republican recently, following the tumultuous removal of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Johnson has avoided addressing his prominent involvement in discrediting the outcome of the 2020 election. While he has engaged in a few favorable interviews with Fox News, he has remained silent on the issue during a news conference on Capitol Hill, where GOP lawmakers, disapproving of the question, responded with boos and one even rudely told the reporter to be quiet.

Johnson was not as outspoken as Trump in his claims that the 2020 election was tainted by fraud or a Democratic conspiracy against the former president's re-election. However, the Louisiana Republican took part in multiple legal and quasi-constitutional efforts aimed at casting doubt on Biden's victory. For instance, he rallied GOP lawmakers to support a legal brief that challenged the results in swing states won by Biden, joining forces with Texas and other Republican-leaning states. Furthermore, on January 6, 2021, Johnson endorsed a statement alongside 36 other House Republicans, declaring their intention to object to electors from key states won by Biden due to concerns about the constitutionality of certain voting accommodations made during the pandemic. Notably, Johnson even voted against the Electoral College votes despite the events of the U.S. Capitol insurrection on that day. Despite the fact that his actions posed a threat to the nation's democratic framework, they seemingly bolstered his political career.

Johnson's maneuvering after the 2020 election was instrumental in securing his rise to the speakership. Amid deep fatigue and frustration within the GOP conference, Johnson emerged as a compromise candidate, bridging the gaps within a party that was struggling to find a new speaker. However, Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota, the previous candidate for speaker, faced distrust from many Trump supporters due to his failure to vote against the certification of Biden's victory. One such Trump supporter, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, cited Emmer's vote as a significant factor in her decision to vote against him. Reflecting the prevailing sentiment among Republican voters, Greene emphasized the need for the speaker of the House to align with their views and the will of the party, even if those beliefs are unfounded or come at a cost with the general electorate.

As the 2024 campaign gains momentum and Republicans strive to maintain their House majority, Democrats are already attempting to exploit Johnson's track record on election credibility as a liability.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, for example, recently sent a fundraising email to its supporters. In the email, they criticized House Republicans for choosing someone they deem to be the mastermind behind their undemocratic plans as the speaker of the House. The email emphasized the importance of defeating the MAGA Majority and reclaiming control of the House in the upcoming 2024 elections.