The Republican Party: Facing an Imminent and Unprecedented Divide

The United States has been without a speaker of the House of Representatives since October 3, and it doesn't seem like the situation will change anytime soon.

Thomas Balcerski

Thomas Balcerski reports that Democrats have united behind Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, while nine Republicans are competing for the position of House Speaker. The candidates will participate in a forum on Monday night, but it remains uncertain if any of them have enough support to replace the current interim House Speaker, Patrick McHenry.

Once again, the House of Representatives is creating a historic moment. It has recently utilized a motion to remove the speaker, a procedure not used in a century, and now it has the distinction of being the first Congress in history to require two speaker elections involving multiple ballots.

Given the current turmoil in Congress, I am approached daily by my students and the general public with one pressing question: What lies ahead?

Joseph G. Cannon, between 1910 and 1917. American politician Joseph Gurney Cannon.

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Opinion: Americans should get familiar with this once-obscure legislative maneuver

As previously mentioned, history, particularly the study of political parties in the United States, can offer valuable insights. In this regard, two terms from American history are worth introducing: political realignment and deadlocked conventions. These terms have long been recognized and studied by historians and political scientists. However, their significance in 2023 raises important questions. Specifically, how do they relate to the future of the House of Representatives?

In summary, the answer to this question suggests that we can expect further deadlock within the House, potentially leading to the deterioration of the Republican Party in its current form.

Political realignment refers to the phenomenon in which voters shift their allegiance to a different political party or candidate, often during crucial elections such as presidential or midterm ones. In 1955, renowned political scientist V.O. Key introduced the concept of realigning reelections to outline the Republican Party's rising dominance in presidential elections, starting from Abraham Lincoln's unexpected triumph in 1860 until Franklin D. Roosevelt's rise to power in 1932.

But in reality, the process of realignment had been taking place much earlier, beginning as far back as the contentious election of 1800 between Thomas Jefferson and John Adams, and extending through the establishment of the modern Democratic Party in 1828 with the historic election of Andrew Jackson.

House Republican Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) counts the votes of fellow members during the second round of voting to select a new Speaker of the House. On this occasion, Representative Jim Jordan (R-OH) was unsuccessful in obtaining the Speaker's gavel. The event took place at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. on October 18, 2023. The photograph was captured by Jonathan Ernst and published by Reuters.

The time between 1852 and 1860 holds significant importance as it marked the collapse of a major political party, the Whig Party, in 1854 and the dissolution of the Democratic Party in 1860.

Beginning with the Whigs, their once glorious downfall remains a renowned episode in history. While boasting two presidential victories and boasting influential figures like Daniel Webster, Henry Clay, and Lincoln, the Whigs found themselves irreparably torn between Northern and Southern factions due to the slavery dispute by 1854.

Ultimately, the breaking point was the controversial Kansas-Nebraska Act, which allowed for slavery across all western territories.

The impact was astonishing. The anti-slavery Whigs believed that the party's efforts to resist the spread of slavery were insufficient, leading them to merge and form the Republican Party.

In contrast, Southern Whigs either joined an anti-immigrant party called the American Party or switched their support to the Democrats. William Henry Seward, a devoted Whig member who would later serve as Lincoln's secretary of state, was satisfied with the demise of his party: "So let the Whig party fade away. It made a serious mistake, and it has paid the price for it. Therefore, let it leave the stage with all the recognition it deserves."

The collapse of the Whig Party foreshadowed impending divisions. In 1860, the Democratic Party faced a stalemate at its national convention in Charleston, South Carolina.

William L. Yancey, a secessionist from Alabama, advocated for additional safeguards for slavery, addressing the "sovereign states of the Union." However, the Democratic convention rejected these demands, leading the Southern delegates to stage a walkout.

Republican representatives Gary Palmer, Mike Johnson, Tom Emmer, Dan Meuser, Kevin Hern, Pete Sessions, Byron Donalds, Jack Bergman, and Austin Scott, as shown in the image below:

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These are the House Republicans running for speaker

An attempt to reunite the party in Baltimore in June resulted in a fruitless search for consensus, resulting in the emergence of two candidates: Stephen Douglas from Illinois and John C. Breckinridge from Kentucky. The internal division within the Democratic Party played a significant role in Lincoln's subsequent election and laid the groundwork for the later secession of the Southern states from the Union.

After the disintegration of the Whig Party in 1854 and the fragmentation of the Democratic Party in 1860, American political parties have faced near-collapse on several occasions.

The Republican Party experienced a division in 1912 as Theodore Roosevelt spearheaded a "Bull Moose" insurgency against Republican nominee William Howard Taft. This ultimately led to the election victory of Democrat Woodrow Wilson.

In a well-known incident, the Democratic Party in 1924 endured a lengthy voting process consisting of 103 ballots before reaching a consensus on a compromise candidate, John W. Davis from West Virginia.

In 1968, the Democratic Party experienced a schism between the pro- and anti-war factions during the selection of Hubert H. Humphrey as their nominee. This division ultimately resulted in the election of Republican Richard Nixon in the following autumn.

In the more recent 2020 election, the dissident "Never Trump" movement noticeably eroded support for the Republican Party.

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Naturally, party realignment is a complex matter as it becomes evident only in retrospect. Although some of these conflicts caused realignment, they often merely indicate a decline in power for the respective party in the upcoming election.

How does today's House Republican conference exemplify these patterns of dysfunction? Firstly, the intensity of the internal disagreements within the GOP conference and the threats made towards members highlight a party that is in disarray. The term "Republican civil war" accurately depicts this situation, and similar to the historical Civil War, it could have long-lasting implications for the two-party system.

In addition, this internal animosity within the party might signify that we are witnessing the fragmentation of the GOP in real-time. Similar to how the Whig party divided over the issue of slavery, present-day Republicans seem to be split between those who want to govern and those who are content with creating noise.

If the Republicans of today remain deadlocked, they will suffer a fate similar to that of Democrats in 1860. A failure to reach a majority consensus signals the doom of an American political party.