The Realities of Ecuador's Elections: Crime and Economy Take Center Stage

Crime continues to dominate the Ecuadorean presidential election as voters decide between former legislators Luisa González or Daniel Noboa on Sunday. This run-off election follows the tragic assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, who was killed just days prior to the first-round poll on August 20.

Presidential candidate Luisa González, representing the Citizen's Revolution Political Movement, greets supporters as she arrives at a polling station in Guayaquil, Ecuador, on Sunday, August 20, 2023. The election was initiated following President Guillermo Lasso's dissolution of the National Assembly through a decree in May, which was aimed at evading impeachment. (AP Photo/Martin Mejia)

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Ecuador election heads to run-off vote, with González to face surprise second-place Noboa

The tragic death of Villavicencio has become a poignant symbol of the deteriorating security situation in the country. Rival criminal organizations are resorting to ruthless and highly visible acts of violence on the streets and in prisons, as they fiercely compete to dominate the drug trafficking routes. Concerns persist that those responsible for Villavicencio's murder may evade accountability, especially considering the discovery of seven suspects found dead in different prisons in late September.

"We are uncertain about what will bring an end to this situation as we cannot tolerate living in fear of crime," expressed César Ortiz, a small business owner, during an interview with CNN en Español in Quito before the election.

Ortiz expressed his desire for the new president to prioritize both security and the economy, stating, "There are numerous unemployed individuals, and this is why crime is prevalent."

The candidates

Noboa, the son of a banana tycoon, was a lawmaker before outgoing President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the legislature and called for early elections.

The 35-year-old candidate from the Acción Democrática Nacional party, who aligns with the center-right, has committed to enhancing job prospects for the youth, attracting greater foreign investment, implementing technological strategies to combat crime, and proposing various measures to combat corruption, such as enforcing penalties for tax evasion.

However, some experts express skepticism regarding the practicality of his proposals. Will Freeman, a Latin America studies fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, stated to CNN, "Many of his suggestions involve expanding the social safety net with funds that Ecuador currently lacks."

González, a member of the Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana party, is regarded as a protégé of former leftist President Rafael Correa. The former president, who continues to exert significant influence in the country while residing in exile in Belgium, has shown support for her candidacy. In 2020, he received an eight-year prison sentence for aggravated bribery in absentia, a charge he has consistently denied.

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This is how Ecuador is preparing for the presidential elections.

Gonzalez pledges to improve public spending and social programs, as well as tackle the security crisis by addressing the underlying factors of violence like poverty and inequality. According to analysts, he also proposes strengthening the judiciary to aid in prosecutions.

Tough job ahead

González emerged as the leading candidate in the initial stage of the voting process. Her proponents recall Correa's tenure as a time of notable economic progress, yet critics highlight accusations of corruption that overshadowed that period.

Before Ecuador became one of the most dangerous countries in the region, it was regarded as a relatively peaceful nation situated between two major narcotics producers, Peru and Colombia.

Due to its well-equipped ports, adoption of the dollar as its currency, and prevalent corruption, Ecuador has emerged as a crucial hub for drug trafficking, facilitating the transportation of narcotics to consumers in the US and Europe. The increasing levels of violence, coupled with a lack of economic opportunities, have driven numerous Ecuadorians to seek opportunities outside their homeland.

Candidates in this year's election have been observed wearing bulletproof vests and being accompanied by a large number of security officials when appearing in public. Even Noboa's campaign was disrupted by gunfire in August. For the run-off on Sundays, the National Electoral Council deployed tens of thousands of police officers and army personnel to safeguard polling stations. However, according to analysts familiar with the region, the winner of Sunday's election may inherit a cursed position. "Currently, governing Ecuador is a living hell - this presidency is intended to strip you of your political existence," stated Freeman, an expert on the subject.

The incoming president faces a pressing challenge in addressing the country's problems as they have a limited timeframe until 2025. This relatively brief tenure, comparable to the end of Lassosterm, presents a narrow opportunity for even the most experienced politician to enact significant change.