The Power of Ukraine Lies in the Streets of Moscow

Matthew Schmidt, a professor at the University of New Haven and former teacher at the US Army's School of Advanced Military Studies, provides insight into the new phase of Ukraine's war. With fighting at a standstill and wavering Western support, the battle in the US Congress may be crucial. While Ukraine can maintain the line of contact with Russian forces, the real challenge lies in President Zelensky's ability to advance the political front and garner enough support from Western capitals to push Russia off Ukrainian soil.

Matthew Schmidt

According to Matthew Schmidt, the diplomatic and political drama unfolding suggests that the war in Ukraine may only end in three possible ways. Either Russia wins outright, Ukraine wins and takes back Crimea, or the fighting is frozen with a political resolution in the future, which is the most likely scenario.

Six-hundred-plus days since February 2022and almost 3,600 days since Ukrainians began in 2014 to fight and die to repel Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces, Kyiv's forces have managed to halt Russia's attempt to take over Ukraine entirely. Now, a Russian victory looks like Kyiv making conclusive concessions at a negotiating table: suing for peace amid stalled Western support and legally forfeiting its claims to the Donbas, Crimea, and other territory Russia has seized.

Ukrainian servicemen ride in a tank near Bakhmut, Dec. 13, 2023. REUTERS/Inna Varenytsia

Inna Varenytsia/Reuters

The prospect of Ukraine conceding territory to Russia is deeply unpalatable to the Ukrainian people. A summer Gallup poll revealed widespread support for continued resistance against Russia, with most insisting that victory would only come with the recovery of all lost territory since 2014. This sentiment makes negotiations difficult for President Zelensky, and it's unclear if Western leaders truly understand the firmness of this stance among ordinary Ukrainians. It's evident that Ukrainians do not want their leaders to permanently give up hard-fought territory, particularly after enduring years of warfare and devastation at the hands of Russia's invading forces.

With the possibility of Ukraine surrendering land to Russia aside, Kyiv is left with two paths to victory. If Washington and Brussels can overcome political obstacles and provide more aid and advanced weaponry, Ukraine may attempt a drastic bid to reclaim Crimea. Alternatively, Kyiv can pursue a more realistic and likely approach: seeking a ceasefire that preserves Ukraine's legal claims to its territory while pausing the fighting, with the hope of eventual recovery.

Those are the only possibilities for a simple reason: No matter what, the way Kyiv ultimately wins this warif it is, indeed, to winis in the streets of Moscow.

U.S. Marines join 30,000 troops from NATO countries, Finland, and Sweden in the "Cold Response 2022" military exercise near Bjerkvik in the Arctic Circle, Norway, amidst Russia's invasion of Ukraine on March 24, 2022. (Yves Herman/Reuters)

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Despite efforts from Ukraine and the West to oppose Putin's vision of a greater "Russian world," and the significant investments made in high- and low-tech weapons, the fundamental nature of war remains unchanged. War continues to be a contest of deadly force aimed at resolving political issues. As famously stated by Carl von Clausewitz, war is essentially an extension of politics through "other means." Ultimately, the outcome on the battlefield must impact the politics of the enemy's capital in order to alter the course of the conflict.

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Clausewitz, a 19th century Prussian general and philosopher of early modern warfare, believed that military force was necessary to defend against an adversary seeking to impose political control on a target country, much like Putin's aims. In this deadly conflict, both skill and technology were essential, as well as courage and determination. Clausewitz identified the critical elements of victory as the political will to continue the fight, the determination of the soldiers (men and women today), and the support or acceptance of the effort by the population. This trinity of the political, military, and population was Clausewitz's great insight. Professional military education emphasizes that these factors define the true nature of all war, whether in ancient Rome or the bloodlands of Ukraine.

To achieve victory, one side must influence the political will of the enemy and change their decisions about whether or how to continue the fight. Lethal force and economic sanctions must push the enemy to a breaking point that affects the enemy population or its political and military leadership to such an extent that surrender, ceasefire, or a negotiated settlement become better options than continuing to fight.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is seen strolling alongside Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) at the US Capitol on Dec. 12, 2023. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Photograph by Drew Angerer/Getty Images

The ways in which the decision to wage war is altered can be through revolutions, coups, or elections. Every sector of society has the ability to influence the decisions made about war, and in some cases, even determine who has the authority to make these decisions. Similarly, combatants make efforts to replace the enemy's wartime decision-makers. The reported attempts by Russia to assassinate Zelensky, and the Allied plans to take out Hitler during World War II, reflect Clausewitz's observation about the connection between war and politics. The essence of war remains constant, regardless of changes in the tools and strategies used to conduct it.

What can we learn from the perspective of a deceased 19th century Prussian philosopher on the current state of Europe's biggest conflict since 1945? The analysis sheds light on Ukraine's struggle for ultimate success and the limited impact of its remarkable battlefield performances on the political situation in Moscow. Despite significant casualties and devastation, the Russian population has not risen up against Putin's nationalist propaganda and the buffer between the reality of the war and public perception remains strong.

Recruiting troops in distant regions, prisons, and reportedly even in other countries has shielded the Russian middle class, who pose the most significant threat to Putin's rule. When protests arise, Russia's political leadership relies on the security services to suppress them. The military's battlefield performance also plays a role: Despite repeated mistakes by the military leadership, their sheer size advantage and the quantity of artillery and missiles they can deploy in Ukraine have prevented them from suffering battlefield defeat. (Maintaining a constant flow of shells is a major reason why Zelensky personally sought help from Washington this month. Quantity can triumph over quality, whether in manpower or artillery.)

United Arab Emirates Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and President of COP28, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, addresses the media at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on December 4, 2023. (REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani)

When an oil executive is in charge of the climate talks, what can we expect? Despite Kyiv's efforts, they have been unable to make much impact on Moscow's politics, let alone on the Kremlin's decision-making. The ongoing war has not yet influenced the determination of Putin, his generals, or the Russian public.

If Ukraine is to change its situation, it will require more support from the West. The first step is to provide Ukraine with the advanced military technology requested by top general Valerie Zaluzhny, as highlighted in a recent interview with The Economist. This technology is crucial in addressing the longstanding issue of the quality versus quantity dilemma that has plagued Ukrainian forces. This is the same request that President Biden has put forth to Congress, but has been held up by Republicans.

Additionally, Zelensky must navigate the political obstacles in the West in order to effectively lead Ukraine during wartime. In line with Clausewitz's factors for the outcome of war, including the will of leaders, soldiers, and populations, Kyiv must also contend with the challenge of maintaining support from American voters and members of Congress. Zelensky does not have control over the American political landscape, especially in a presidential election year, which could be detrimental to Ukraine's goal of pushing Russia's army out of the country by 2024.

Ukraine can achieve victory through Western support, either quickly or over time. The most direct route to success is recapturing Crimea, as it holds great significance for Putin and could shift the political balance in Moscow. However, this is a challenging task given the current state of Ukrainian troops and the uncertainty of receiving necessary weapons in time.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends his annual end-of-year press conference in Moscow on Dec. 14, 2023. Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov/Pool via REUTERS

Alexander Kazakov/Sputnik/Reuters

Another option, which is less reliant on immediate delivery of high-tech weapons and rapid battlefield success, is for Zelensky to halt the fighting and implement a long-term strategy to reclaim his territory over time. This serves as a contingency plan in case the first option fails. Some may refer to this as the "Berlin option." While Ukraine's opponents may want Kyiv to seek peace, this alternative would involve a different approach to negotiation, aiming to delay. In a way, it mirrors the tactic Russia used after the initial phase of the 2014 war.

Kyiv may consider pursuing a ceasefire with Russia without immediately relinquishing its legal rights to its Russian-occupied lands. It could engage in negotiations with Russia without the immediate intention of surrendering the Donbas and Crimea. Similar to Russia's approach after 2014, which involved agreeing to a temporary cessation of fighting and then prolonging negotiations over Eastern Ukrainian territory in multi-way talks with Kyiv, Paris, and Berlin under the (failed) Minsk protocol. Zelensky could take a comparable approach by temporarily pausing the fighting but maintaining resistance to complete concessions at the negotiation table.

The objective would be to keep the possibility open for reclaiming lost territory in the future through a gradual economic and political revival. This could be likened to the case of East and West Berlin. Following World War II, Germanyincluding Berlinwas divided among the Allies, with the UK, France, and US essentially splitting it with the Soviet Union. However, this arrangement was not permanent: The long-term success of West Germany, including the freedom and prosperity that Western-backed capitalist democracy provided, enabled Western Europe to reclaim Berlin into its sphere in 1989.

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For Ukraine to move forward, there are several crucial steps that must be taken. Within the next year, Ukraine must work to reclaim as much of its territory as possible, with as much support from Western countries as President Zelensky can rally. Additionally, NATO must assure Ukraine's security from both land offensives and aerial attacks on cities, regardless of the current battle lines.

It is crucial for the West to commit to a comprehensive rebuilding program in order to create the economic strength necessary for Ukraine's long-term security. In addition to NATO offering protection, the European Union must make Ukrainian membership a reality within the next year, and the promised donor funds to rebuild Ukraine's infrastructure must be readily available. If these steps are taken, Ukraine has the potential to become an engine of growth for itself and its EU neighbors, with a market the size of California and the prospect of a trillion-dollar economic opportunity for investors.

This economic rebuild is essential for Ukraine's long-term survival in the face of an aggressive Russia. Economic growth, job opportunities, better housing, and improved education options would incentivize many of the 6.3 million Ukrainians who have been displaced since Russia's invasion to return to their homeland. Providing returning families with the promise of a quality of life that can rival what they have abroad is crucial for bringing back the human talent needed to rebuild the country.

Ukrainian soldiers in Zaporizhia Oblast on Nov. 5, 2023. (Photo by Ozge Elif Kizil/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Ozge Elif Kizil/Anadolu/Getty Images

In the future, the populations under occupation in the Donbas and Crimea may experience a similar outcome. It is possible that, after Putin is no longer in power, the desire for a better life across the border could inspire the political determination to challenge Moscow for the opportunity to live in a prosperous, secure, European Ukraine.

This is a long-term theory of victory, based on political and economic strength rather than just battlefield success. While it would be challenging to achieve and take many years, the general direction aligns with Clausewitz's accurate perception of war as politics. The significant sacrifices in the trenches of Ukraine made this possibility attainable. If it weren't for the resourcefulness and courage of Ukrainians, and the determination of the West to support them, the outcome would have been decided in the streets of Kyiv, not Moscow. On one hand, a more limited defeat for Ukraine remains a possibility: Kyiv could acquiesce to Russia at the negotiating table, relinquishing occupied land permanently. On the other hand, the likelihood of an economic reconstruction, inclusion in the European Union, and formal or informal protection from NATO - in essence, Ukrainians establishing a more prosperous country that can thrive within the Western alliance - remains the most viable way for Kyiv to emerge victorious in the long-term political confrontation with Moscow.

War is characterized by chaos and uncertainty, but it also presents the potential for a better future in exchange for the sacrifices of many. This underscores the importance of politics in Washington, Brussels, and Kyiv in determining whether this potential is secured or squandered.