The Perfect Storm: Unveiling the Hidden Causes behind Africa's Most Devastating Flood Disaster

At 3 a.m. on Monday, while the residents of Derna were in their slumber, chaos ensued. First, one dam gave way, followed by another, unleashing an immense surge of water that cascaded down the mountains towards the coastal city of Libya. This devastating deluge claimed the lives of countless individuals, as entire neighborhoods were engulfed and swept away into the unforgiving sea.

It is estimated that over 5,000 individuals perished in this catastrophe, with thousands more still unaccounted for. However, the exact number remains uncertain, as varying reports from Libyan officials and aid groups have surfaced. Regrettably, the death toll is anticipated to increase as additional information becomes available.

The tragedy in the city of Derna in eastern Libya, which was once home to approximately 100,000 people, has left at least 10,000 individuals missing, according to authorities. The accuracy of these figures could not be independently verified by CNN.

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According to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the city experienced extensive destruction of buildings, homes, and infrastructure when a 7-meter (23-foot) wave struck. The ICRC mentioned that corpses were currently being washed ashore.

However, with thousands dead and numerous individuals still unaccounted for, there are inquiries regarding the reasons behind the disproportionately higher level of destruction caused by the storm in Libya, which also affected Greece and other countries.

According to experts, the catastrophe in Libya was intensified not only by the severe storm, but also by a deadly combination of factors. These factors include the deteriorating and outdated infrastructure, insufficient warning systems, and the detrimental effects of the escalating climate crisis.

A ferocious storm

The extreme rainfall that hit Libya on Sunday was brought by a system called Storm Daniel.

After wreaking havoc in Greece, Turkey, and Bulgaria, causing the unfortunate deaths of over 20 individuals, the weather disturbance transformed into a "medicane" over the Mediterranean. This atypical storm exhibits comparable traits to hurricanes and typhoons, making it relatively rare.

Subsequently, the medicane intensified while traversing the abnormally warm Mediterranean waters, eventually unleashing heavy rainfall on Libya this past Sunday.

It brought more than 16 inches (414 mm) of rainfall in 24 hoursto Al-Bayda, a city west of Derna, a new record.

A view shows people looking at the damaged areas, in the aftermath of the floods in Derna, Libya September 14, 2023. REUTERS/Esam Omran Al-Fetori

Esam Omran Al-Fetori/Reuters

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In photos: Catastrophic flooding devastates eastern Libya

Scientists are certain that climate change is amplifying the severity of storms, although it is premature to directly connect this specific storm to the climate crisis. With warmer oceans acting as a catalyst for storm formation and a hotter atmosphere capable of retaining greater moisture, the occurrence of excessive rainfall and the intensification of storms are becoming increasingly evident, remarks Hannah Cloke, a hydrology professor at the University of Reading in the UK.

A history of flooding

According to a research paper published by Libya's Sebha University last year, Derna is susceptible to flooding. Since 1942, its dam reservoirs have been responsible for at least five fatal floods. The most recent flood occurred in 2011.

The two dams, which burst on Monday, were constructed by a Yugoslav construction company between 1973 and 1977. The Derna dam, standing at 75 meters (246 feet) tall, has a storage capacity of 18 million cubic meters (4.76 billion gallons). The second dam, Mansour, has a height of 45 meters (148 feet) and a capacity of 1.5 million cubic meters (396 million gallons). According to the city's deputy mayor Ahmed Madroud, these dams have not been maintained since 2002.

The dams in Derna had been identified as having a significant risk of flooding, according to a report from Sebha University. The report emphasized the need for regular maintenance of the dams to prevent catastrophic flooding. It also highlighted the lack of sufficient vegetation in the surrounding area to prevent soil erosion. The report recommended that immediate action be taken to carry out maintenance on the dams and that local residents should be educated about the dangers of flooding.

According to Liz Stephens, a Professor in Climate Risks and Resilience at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom, the dam's design standard and the consideration of extreme rainfall events need to be questioned. She emphasized that the dam break was directly responsible for the significant number of tragic fatalities.

Stephens, speaking to the Science Media Center, mentioned that if the dams had failed, it could have resulted in a sudden release of all the water, while also noting that the inclusion of debris in the floodwaters would have further intensified the destructive impact. Due to prolonged periods of conflict, Derna has previously suffered significant damage to its infrastructure.

From fighting against ISIS to contending with eastern commander Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA), the city's infrastructure has deteriorated significantly and is grossly insufficient in dealing with floods such as the one caused by Storm Daniel.

A lack of warnings

The head of the United Nations World Meteorological Organization, Petteri Taalas, blamed the lack of proper warnings for the majority of the casualties in Derna. According to Taalas, if there had been a functioning meteorological service, they would have issued the necessary warnings, enabling emergency management to carry out evacuations and prevent most of the human casualties. Taalas made these remarks during a news conference on Thursday.

Talaas stated that the country's political instability has hindered the WMO's collaboration with the Libyan government to enhance these systems.

However, according to Cloke, even with reliable early warning systems, it is not assured that all lives can be rescued.

General view of the city during the Sunrise, following a powerful storm and heavy rainfall hitting the country, in Derna, Libya September 14, 2023.

Esam Omran Al-Fetori/Reuters

Most deaths in Libya floods could have been avoided, UN says, as fears grow for thousands missing

"It is extremely challenging to predict dam failures, which can unleash a torrent of water that devastates entire cities," Cloke explained to CNN. "These floods are among the most destructive in existence."

According to Cloke, even though dams are typically constructed to withstand severe conditions, this is frequently insufficient. "We need to be proactive in anticipating unforeseen circumstances, especially considering the exacerbating impact of climate change on these unexpected events."

The global risk posed to infrastructure by climate-driven extreme weather, including dams, buildings, and water supplies, is alarming. Cloke emphasized that we are unprepared for the impending onslaught of extreme events. This report includes contributions from CNN's Celine Alkhaldi, Mostafa Salem, and Sharon Braithwaite.