The Ominous Implications: Why Americans Should Brace for a Government Shutdown

As Congress continues to be deadlocked on a funding deal, the government is teetering on the verge of a shutdown this week. Consequently, federal departments and agencies have initiated the compulsory procedure of preparing to cease nonessential operations. On Friday, the Office of Management and Budget sent a reminder to senior agency officials, instructing them to revise and evaluate their shutdown plans.

Each department and agency has its own unique set of plans and procedures, which outline details such as the number of employees to be furloughed, essential employees who would work without pay, the time required to wind down operations before a shutdown, and the activities that would be paused. These plans may differ from one shutdown to another.

If Congress fails to pass a short-term spending bill to ensure the smooth functioning of essential services, a shutdown could have significant consequences for all Americans, affecting various areas including air travel and access to clean drinking water.

The immediate impact of the shutdown will be felt by the nearly 4 million federal employees in America. While essential workers will continue to perform their duties, others will be furloughed until the impasse is resolved. Throughout this period, none of the employees affected will receive any form of payment.

The US Capitol building in Washington, DC on Tuesday, September 19, 2023. House Republicans have introduced a continuing resolution this week to prevent a government shutdown scheduled for October 1. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images.

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For many of them, a shutdown would strain their finances, as it did during the record 35-day funding lapse in 2018-2019.

"We had numerous members nationwide who returned holiday gifts due to financial difficulties such as needing immediate cash, missing mortgage payments, resorting to short-term loans, and accumulating credit card debt because they went without pay for a whole month," stated Doreen Greenwald, president of the National Treasury Employees Union. Representing 150,000 employees across 35 agencies, she expressed concern for the hardships they faced. "They endured waiting in long lines at food banks, withdrawing their children from childcare, struggling to afford gas for their vehicles, and pleading with creditors for lenience. Such treatment of our own employees is not representative of how the United States of America should be."

On average, members of the American Federation of Government Employees earn annual salaries ranging between $55,000 and $65,000, while hourly workers make an average of $45,000 per year. However, there are thousands whose earnings are closer to $15 per hour, totaling approximately $31,200 annually.

"Our members are predominantly living from one paycheck to another, with no ability to afford missing even a single payday, let alone multiple ones," stated Everett Kelley, union president. "This is precisely why we are urging Congress to fulfill its responsibility and enact a budget that will avert a shutdown impacting the entire governmental system."

With a membership count of 750,000, the American Federation of Government Employees is the largest federal employee union, representing individuals across various federal agencies and those working for the government in Washington, DC. Its diverse membership encompasses healthcare professionals, correctional and law enforcement officers, park rangers, Transportation Security Administration agents, and Social Security workers.

Here are some of those impacts that Americans can expect:

Travel

Visitors walk past the U.S. Capitol on September 11, 2023 in Washington, DC.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

What could happen if the government shuts down

As tens of thousands of unpaid air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration personnel continue to work, the White House is expressing concerns over the potential havoc it could wreak on air travel. In the previous shutdown, numerous TSA officers opted to call out from work, with many resorting to alternative means to earn a living. With this in mind, the White House has cautioned that travelers may experience substantial delays and extended waiting periods at airports nationwide.

And some passport facilities could close in the event of a shutdown, the State Departments 2022 guidance states.

The economy

In the event of a shutdown, significant economic consequences may arise. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has stated that it will cease publishing various data, such as important statistics on inflation and unemployment. This absence of crucial government information would pose challenges for investors and the Federal Reserve in their efforts to analyze the state of the US economy. Additionally, as per the 2021 guidance, the Small Business Administration would be unable to offer new loans to any businesses.

And the Commodity Futures Trading Commission "will cease the vast bulk of its operations," including market oversight, according to its 2021 guidance.

Public health and safety

The government shutdown is expected to have wide-ranging effects on public health and safety within various agencies.

Although emergency public health measures, outbreak response, and laboratory functions will continue, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cautions that "other public health activities will be operating with diminished capacity."

The White House has cautioned that the Food and Drug Administration might have to postpone food safety inspections nationwide for various products. Likewise, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration would be compelled to restrict workplace inspections, potentially endangering worker safety.

Arts, culture and the great outdoors

The White House cautions about potential risks concerning drinking water as the Environmental Protection Agency scales back its inspection activities at hazardous waste sites and facilities handling drinking water and chemicals. Moreover, the White House predicts that efforts to combat harmful pollutants such as PFAS, which have been linked to serious health issues including cancer, could be postponed, and the progress of cleanup operations at Superfund sites may be hindered or halted.

A government shutdown may impact cherished national treasures, including museums and national parks. In line with the 2021 guidance, all Smithsonian museums and the National Zoo would be closed, although the shutdown would not impact the care of zoo animals. According to plans from the National Archives and Records Administration, some presidential libraries would also be closed. The closure of national park sites and nearby facilities by the National Park Service remains uncertain, but this has happened in previous shutdowns, leading to issues such as piled-up trash, overflowing toilets, and acts of vandalism by visitors due to a reduction in the park services workforce.

Student loans and education

The Department of Education issued a warning stating that significant student aid programs, including Pell Grants, may encounter disruptions during a government shutdown. According to the department's 2021 guidance, while some essential functions like processing Free Applications for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA), disbursing Pell Grants and Federal Direct Student Loans, as well as serving Federal student loans, may continue for a limited time due to existing appropriations, they may still be affected to some extent by the funding lapse.

The delay beyond one week in reopening schools may lead to serious disruptions in federal funding, as warned by the Department of Education. It stated that such a delay would significantly limit the cash flow to school districts, colleges, and universities. The memo further highlights that around 1 in 10 school districts relies on federally funded programs for over 15% of their funds.

Additionally, the White House cautions that approximately 10,000 children throughout the country would lose immediate access to Head Start programs, thereby affecting some of the youngest citizens in the nation.

Food assistance

The future remains uncertain for those benefiting from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), more commonly referred to as food stamps. The US Department of Agriculture has confirmed that SNAP recipients will continue to receive benefits until October. However, what lies beyond that point is unknown. It is worth noting that the agency lacks the necessary funding to sustain the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC) throughout an extended government shutdown. Some individual states may possess additional funds in order to support the program beyond a few days.

Food banks may face difficulties in placing new orders and there is a possibility of disruptions to their existing deliveries.

Additionally, if a government shutdown occurs, reimbursements from the federal government to Meals on Wheels could be delayed. This could result in community-based programs suspending meal services, implementing or expanding waiting lists, reducing the quantity of meals or the frequency of delivery, or potentially even shutting down. The nonprofit organization, which serves over 2.8 million seniors each year, expressed concern about these potential impacts.

Housing assistance

Impact on Low-Income Tenants During the 2018-2019 Shutdown: Challenges and Uncertainty

The shutdown that took place between 2018 and 2019 had a significant impact on the lives of tens of thousands of low-income tenants. These individuals heavily relied on the assistance provided by the federal government to help cover their rent payments. However, due to the shutdown, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) faced obstacles in renewing approximately 1,650 contracts with private building owners, who catered to impoverished Americans, including elderly and disabled individuals.

As a result, HUD confronted a difficult situation and urged landlords to utilize their reserves in order to bridge the financial gaps caused by the inability to renew these contracts. This created further uncertainty for the affected tenants, who were left grappling with the potential consequences of this financial strain.

HUD officials suggested at the time that the expiration of the rental contracts would probably not result in prompt eviction proceedings by landlords. However, experts pointed out that building owners might need to postpone repairs or temporarily cease services they offer, such as transportation, after-school care, or social programs. The exact number of contracts that would be affected by a shutdown this time is still unknown.

Campaigns

The US Capitol building on Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2023, in Washington.

Mark Schiefelbein/AP

Office of Management and Budget to initiate process of preparing for a shutdown

The Federal Election Commission, the primary organization responsible for safeguarding elections and upholding federal campaign finance regulations, would face significant consequences in the event of a shutdown. According to the agency's plans, nearly all essential functions of the FEC would come to a halt. This encompasses the evaluation of campaign finance disclosure reports, enforcement of the Federal Election Campaign Act, and provision of support to campaign and political committee treasurers as well as the general public regarding campaign finance legislation.

Research

A government shutdown would halt the research efforts of various government agencies. Specifically, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) would terminate "most research activities," and there would be no allocation of new grants by the National Science Foundation.

Recruitment

Recruitment efforts across government agencies would suffer a major setback in the event of a shutdown. It would adversely affect the recruitment, selection, and placement processes for various organizations such as the Peace Corps, all civil service positions at the State Department as specified in its 2022 guidelines, and new contractors joining the Defense Department, among numerous others.