The Impactful Election in Poland: Unveiling the Ripple Effects Across Europe, Ukraine, and the US

In any democratic country, voters can expect to be informed that their nation is at a crucial point during an election campaign. However, the significance of this electoral cliché has rarely been more accurate than it is currently in Poland.

The fifth-most populous nation in the European Union will hold a significant election on Sunday, October 15. The outcomes of this election will have far-reaching implications, affecting countries in the EU, war-torn Ukraine, and even catching the attention of the White House. The ruling Law and Justice party, also known as PiS, could potentially secure an unprecedented third consecutive term in power, a move that critics argue could lead to a complete overhaul of the country's institutions in an illiberal manner.

The election is incredibly close, with a united opposition coalition on the verge of seizing power, while an uncertain outcome presents an opportunity for the far-right to exploit. Here's what you should be aware of.

Whats happening?

The upcoming parliamentary elections in Poland, scheduled for October 15, are set to determine the country's new government. Currently, the Law and Justice party (PiS) holds power with the backing of smaller populist parties. PiS is aiming for a historic third consecutive term, seeking to form Poland's next government. Standing in opposition is a coalition of centrist parties led by Donald Tusk, the former Polish Prime Minister and ex-President of the European Council.

With just days remaining in the campaign, a number of outcomes remain possible.

European Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson addresses the issue of EU safeguarding measures for children and young individuals fleeing the conflict in Ukraine during a plenary session at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France on April 5, 2022. (Photo by FREDERICK FLORIN/AFP via Getty Images)

The EU seeks 'clarifications' from Poland regarding allegations of visa fraud. Polls indicate that PiS is slightly ahead of Tusks Civic Coalition, making it improbable for any group to secure an absolute majority in the lower house of the Polish parliament, known as the Sejm. Consequently, this outcome would initiate several days of post-election negotiations, as the leading party endeavors to form a coalition in order to establish governance.

A bitter campaign

Personal conflicts and assaults have always been present in Polish politics, but this year's campaign stands out for its extreme hostility.

PiS, a political party accused of exploiting migrants and the LGBTQ community to incite divisions in previous elections, has consistently tried to portray Tusk as a puppet of Brussels and Berlin. The government's controversial investigation, launched earlier this year, targeting the opposition leader as part of an alleged "Russian influence" was widely condemned, both domestically and internationally.

Public media, primarily under the control of PiS, has echoed many of these same viewpoints. Tusk, in an effort to retaliate, frames his candidacy as the final opportunity to rescue Poland from the clutches of corruption and authoritarianism.

Jacek Kucharczyk, the president of the Executive Board at Warsaws Institute of Public Affairs, commented to CNN, saying, "The rhetoric surrounding this is rather exaggerated - suggesting that this would mark the downfall of Poland."

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"There is a clash between opposing forces, one representing democracy, rule of law, and Western values, and the other representing nationalism, Catholicism, and sovereignty," stated Kucharczyk.

Voters have been primarily concerned with persistently high inflation and cost-of-living difficulties in recent months, while security issues have also played a significant role in the campaign. The revelation last month of a potential cash-for-visas scandal involving Polish officials has hindered the efforts of PiS lawmakers to portray themselves as strong on border security.

A massive transformation of Poland

Poland's shift towards illiberal policies under PiS's eight-year leadership has resulted in the country losing the support of its Western allies. This, in turn, has escalated tensions in anticipation of the upcoming vote scheduled for next week.

Critics argue that granting the government a third term would enable them to fully suppress judicial independence, media freedom, democratic institutions, as well as the rights of women and minorities.

"(The election) is seen as the final opportunity to use democratic methods to halt the decline of democracy," Kucharczyk stated in an interview with CNN. "The concern lies in the fact that if PiS retains power for another four years, they will further solidify the gaps in the authoritarian system they have been constructing over the past eight years."

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki is seeking to win a new term.

The ruling party has made substantial changes to the judiciary, granting the government greater authority in selecting key personnel. Following a ruling by the top court of the European Union in June, Polish judicial reforms were deemed to be in violation of EU laws, resulting in the requirement for amendments or the imposition of substantial penalties.

"It represents a monumental institutional shift," commented Piotr Buras, the director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in Warsaw, speaking to CNN. "This signifies a substantial shift towards an illiberal regime under the guise of democratic procedures."

PiS defends its reforms as necessary for modernizing Poland's institutions and eliminating judges appointed during the Communist era. However, opponents of the party argue that it is replicating Hungary's trajectory, which has also drawn criticism from Brussels for its increasing authoritarianism.

"What we may witness after this election is something truly unprecedented in the history of European democracy, which would be an attempt to roll back liberalism," Buras said.

Competing visions for Europe

During the post-Soviet era, Poland excelled as the EU's top achiever, blazing a trail as a vibrant young democracy rooted in free-market principles, according to Kucharczyk. However, the dynamics have shifted significantly over the past decade as Poland has found itself entangled in an ongoing conflict with the EU. Brussels has halted financial support and taken legal action against Warsaw due to its attempts to undermine the rule of law and judicial autonomy. In response, the Polish government has not hesitated to criticize the institution, championing national sovereignty as a higher priority than international collaboration.

According to Dariusz Stola, a historian at the Institute of Political Studies of the Polish Academy of Sciences, the ruling party's hostility towards the EU has been increasing along with their deteriorating relations with neighboring countries, particularly Germany, as reported by CNN.

However, despite these circumstances, Poland holds a strong position in Europe. The upcoming vote this month could potentially change the current dynamics significantly. Poland's membership in the EU, which it joined in 2004, continues to be highly favored by the Polish population. Additionally, the opposition has selected a prominent figure in recent European politics, Tusk, to lead their campaign.

Donald Tusk, Poland's former prime minister, is seeking to oust the Law and Justice party but is behind in the opinion polls.

Poland also received significant support and positive sentiments from Europe due to its response to Russia's complete invasion of Ukraine last year. The aggressive actions of Moscow appeared to validate Poland's long-standing warnings about Russia's intentions and the European dependence on Russian energy. These warnings were often disregarded in the West as outdated grievances from the past, but that changed until February 2022.

The outcome of this month's election will significantly impact Warsaw's approach to mending its relationship with Brussels and taking a prominent position in addressing Russia, or further exacerbating the longstanding conflict between the two parties.

"Poland holds a crucial position in Europe, sharing a border with Ukraine, possessing a formidable ground army, sizable military expenditure, and serving as a central support hub for Ukraine," Stola emphasized. "The repercussions of Poland's political developments will have far-reaching consequences for the entire European continent in the years ahead."

Kyiv and Washington watch on

Polands election will be watched not just to its west, but to its east - as a more contentious tone creeps into Warsaws once-steadfast relationship with Kyiv.

Buras stated that Poland's moral superiority in foreign policy has relied on its support for Ukraine for the past year and a half. However, this image is now facing significant challenges. The Polish government has been directing strong rhetoric towards Ukraine, especially regarding the importation of Ukrainian grain, which they claim would harm Polish farmers. Furthermore, they have expressed concerns about the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine and Kyiv's ambitions to join NATO and the EU.

Historical grievances regarding a massacre carried out by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II have resurfaced this year, further fueling the tensions that had subsided in the months following Russia's invasion.

Poland pushed European partners to send Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine earlier this year.

Wojtek Radwanski/AFP/Getty Images

The emergence of a far-right party, the Confederation, has played a significant role in driving this change. This party strongly opposes the economic aid provided to Ukrainian refugees in Poland. As a result, they have gained support in PiSs rural strongholds, prompting government officials to adopt a more severe approach towards Kyiv.

According to Kucharczyk, it is highly probable that PiS and Confederation will form a coalition, which would have detrimental effects on Polish-Ukrainian relations.

Poland's unwavering stance against Russia and its refusal to block the transportation of Western arms to Ukraine make it highly unlikely for any situation where such actions would cease. This firm opposition to Russia will continue to be a fundamental aspect of Poland's perspective. Despite this, analysts suggest that if Poland withdraws its financial and military backing post-election, the relationship between Warsaw and Kyiv could deteriorate even more.

"Poland is strongly committed to supporting Ukraine," Kucharczyk emphasized. "However, the negative impact of the election campaign will persist, resulting in a shift where Ukrainians will increasingly turn to Berlin and Washington as their allies, rather than Warsaw."