The Impact of Air Turbulence on Flight Safety

Air travel has always been associated with turbulence, especially during long-haul flights. Recently, a severe turbulence incident on a Singapore Airlines plane, resulting in a passenger's death, has raised concerns about the potential risks of turbulence.

Despite experts emphasizing that the likelihood of injuries or damage from turbulence is very low on most flights, there have been a number of recent incidents where this has unfortunately occurred.

Understanding the causes of turbulence can assist both air crew and passengers in lessening its effects.

Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading in the UK, mentioned in a recent statement that while turbulence fatalities on commercial flights are thankfully uncommon, there has been a regrettable increase by one today.

Here’s how air turbulence can create problems for air travelers.

What is turbulence and what causes it?

There are four main levels of turbulence – light, moderate, severe, and extreme. In cases of light and moderate turbulence, passengers might feel a strain against their seatbelt, and unsecured items in the cabin may move around.

In more severe situations, turbulence can cause passengers to be thrown around the cabin, resulting in serious injuries or even death.

Williams explains that turbulence during flights can be triggered by storms, mountains, and powerful air currents known as jet streams.

Clear-air turbulence, also known as CAT, is a type of turbulence that is not easily detectable on the weather radar in the flight deck. According to the Federal Aviation Administration website, CAT is caused by various factors such as atmospheric pressure, jet streams, air around mountains, cold or warm weather fronts, or thunderstorms.

Turbulence can be a concern for pilots, as they may receive warnings from the Federal Aviation Administration, airline meteorology teams, or other pilots. Despite these alerts, turbulence can still occur unexpectedly.

So, just how dangerous is turbulence?

According to the FAA, between 2009 and 2021, 30 passengers and 116 crew members were seriously injured due to turbulence.

Currently, it is estimated that around four billion passengers fly each year, so these incidents are still considered rare.

Turbulence is the main reason for injuries to flight attendants and passengers in nonfatal accidents on commercial airlines, according to the FAA. Unfortunately, because airlines are not obligated to report less severe injuries, the total number of injuries remains unknown.

Fatalities during flights, like the Singapore Airlines incident, are very rare. In a similar event, a United Airlines flight from Tokyo to Honolulu in December 1997 encountered turbulence that tragically resulted in the death of one person.

According to Mark Prosser, a meteorology researcher from the University of Reading, turbulence can cause flights to become shaky and sometimes pose a risk.

Airlines must consider how to handle the rise in turbulence, which currently results in annual costs of $150–500m in the USA alone.

Spending more time flying through turbulence not only increases the wear-and-tear on the aircraft but also raises the risk of injuries to passengers and flight attendants.

Is it getting worse?

A study by the University of Reading reported that severe turbulence had increased by 55% in the past four decades due to the impact of climate change.

The report, released in June 2023, revealed that severe turbulence along the North Atlantic, a major flight path, increased by 55% from 1979 to 2020.

In an interview with CNN in 2022, Williams, one of the authors of the study, expressed concern that severe turbulence may double or even triple in the next few decades.

He explained that the sudden turbulence was caused by "clear air turbulence," which is challenging to predict and avoid.

The National Transportation Safety Board reported that in approximately 28% of turbulence-related accidents between 2009 and 2018, the flight crew received no prior warning.

Williams’ analysis suggests that clear-air turbulence is expected to increase significantly worldwide in the upcoming decades. According to him, during a transatlantic flight, passengers may experience around 10 minutes of turbulence.

Yes, you should wear a seatbelt the entire flight unless you're going to the bathroom. I believe that in the next few decades, this may increase to 20 minutes or even half an hour. As a result, the seat belt sign will be switched on more often, which may be inconvenient for passengers.

Yes, the short answer is "Yes." According to a 2021 report by the NTSB, most passengers who were injured in accidents related to turbulence were not wearing their seatbelt at the time.

It can be difficult to predict when an aircraft will experience clear air turbulence. To ensure maximum safety, it is best to remain securely strapped in throughout the entire flight.

In extreme turbulence, an airplane can be violently tossed about, making it impossible to control. According to the US National Weather Service, this can cause structural damage to the aircraft.

Recent incidents, including the one affecting the Singapore Airlines flight, have also resulted to substantial damage to the airplane cabin.

Are some routes worse than others?

Turbulence is a common occurrence that can happen in various locations and altitudes. However, there are certain areas that are more prone to experiencing turbulent conditions.

During the Singapore Airlines flight from London to Singapore, the aircraft reportedly faced severe turbulence while flying over Myanmar, right after crossing the Andaman Sea in Southeast Asia.

Turbli, a website that predicts turbulence, analyzed 150,000 flight routes and discovered that the trip from Santiago, Chile to Viru Viru International airport in Bolivia is the bumpiest. The second bumpiest route is from Almaty, Kazakhstan to Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, according to their report released last year.

In North America, the route with the most turbulence on average is from Nashville, Tennessee to Raleigh/Durham in North Carolina.

Duarte Mendonca, Sophie Jeong, Jacopo Prisco and Katia Hetter contributed to this report

Editor's P/S:

The article highlights the concerning increase in turbulence incidents, particularly severe clear-air turbulence (CAT), and its potential risks to air travelers. The rise in turbulence due to climate change is alarming, and it's essential for airlines to address this issue effectively to ensure passenger safety.

While turbulence-related fatalities are rare, the increased frequency of severe turbulence warrants attention. Airlines must invest in technology and training to better predict and mitigate turbulence, and passengers should remain vigilant by wearing their seatbelts throughout the flight. Clear-air turbulence is often unpredictable, so it's crucial for flight crews to be prepared and for passengers to follow safety instructions diligently. By working together, we can minimize the risks associated with turbulence and enhance the safety of air travel.