The Hidden Perils of a Critical Role in American Politics
Securing a nomination for Speaker of the House in American politics is typically a prestigious achievement, but the current state of affairs suggests that the role could prove challenging, hindering party unity and potentially impacting the nation
The toxicity within the GOP is so severe following Speaker Kevin McCarthy's removal that the nominee who is expected to be announced on Tuesday may never secure the position of House of Representatives speaker, even though winning this nomination typically signifies a significant achievement in American politics.
The nomination entails an arduous political task of unifying a conference that may seem irreconcilable. Furthermore, even if the nominee succeeds, the succeeding speaker may have an even shorter tenure than McCarthy's nine-month tenure. However, this matter stretches beyond the struggle of a Republican Party that appears internally divided. Failure of the dysfunctional House GOP majority to find common ground could result in a depletion of government funding before Thanksgiving week, thereby negatively impacting millions of Americans.
At sunset, individuals traverse the upper levels of the rotunda within the U.S. Capitol building in Washington, U.S., on January 4, 2023. The captivating image was captured by Evelyn Hockstein and is a file photo from REUTERS.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
The House speaker crisis is part of the GOP's identity crisis
Lawmakers returned to Washington on Monday amidst a mounting public frustration with the prolonged paralysis of the House for the past three weeks, while global crises continue to escalate and the shutdown deadline looms closer. According to Florida Rep. Vern Buchanan, his constituents feel that "all of us are incapable." Buchanan, a supporter of fellow Sunshine State lawmaker Byron Donalds for speaker, further expressed that "people are extremely enraged and distressed."
Eight hopefuls are set to participate in a confidential vote on Tuesday as the party endeavors to select a nominee, following the unsuccessful attempts of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan to replace McCarthy. The candidates presented their cases to a gathering of the party conference on Monday evening. However, although it is anticipated that one candidate will emerge from the secret balloting process, there is no assurance that they will be able to secure the necessary majority in the full House due to the profound divisions within the GOP. These divisions exist between the far-right hardliners who played a role in McCarthy's removal and the more moderate lawmakers in battleground districts.
Given the slim majority they hold, almost every Republican must endorse the nominee for them to become speaker. This outcome is unlikely in a conference that is extensively fragmented. Former President Donald Trump has been fielding requests from leading candidates seeking his endorsement, but he humorously remarked on Monday that only an act of divine intervention could resolve the crisis.
A new GOP speaker could find it impossible to unite the party
Trump expressed during his visit to New Hampshire that there exists a single individual capable of accomplishing the task in its entirety. He specified this individual to be none other than Jesus Christ. Trump further emphasized that even if Jesus were to descend and express his desire to serve as the speaker, he would undoubtedly fulfill the role.The presence of eight candidates suggests that no one possesses enough strength to dominate the race, and whoever emerges as the nominee may lack a solid support base. While House Majority Whip Tom Emmer has shown signs of progress, his affiliation with the House leadership team, which is distrusted by the right-wing House Freedom Caucus, could result in similar challenges faced by Scalise and McCarthy. Another potential nominee is Donalds from Florida, who is a member of the House Freedom Caucus and one of the few Black Republicans in Congress. However, Donalds may be considered too extreme for moderate Republicans in districts that voted for President Joe Biden. The majority of these members, who hold considerable influence, have expressed anger over the lack of consequences faced by the lawmakers who removed McCarthy. It is possible that a speaker from the far-right might be too hard for them to accept.
Left to right, starting from the top row, the Republican representatives featured in the image are Gary Palmer, Mike Johnson, Tom Emmer, and Kevin Hern. Moving to the bottom row, we see Pete Sessions, Byron Donalds, Jack Bergman, and Austin Scott.
AP/Getty Images
These are the House Republicans running for speaker
The identity of the eventual Republican speaker, when he emerges (with no women among the current eight candidates), may be less significant than the daunting situation he will face. The House GOP has spent three weeks unsuccessfully choosing a new leader, time that could have been better used to establish a stance on a new government funding agreement necessary to prevent a mid-November government shutdown. Even if a new speaker is selected by the end of this week, there is barely three weeks before the Thanksgiving break to reach a deal with a Democratic-controlled Senate and the White House to avoid another governance crisis under the GOP's majority.
The funding standoff will pose one of the most challenging obstacles for the new speaker. The increased vulnerability of this leader, who is likely to be compromised and constantly at risk of losing his position, due to heading a rebellious conference, further exacerbates the situation.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, known for his divisive reputation, expressed concern on Fox News this weekend about the upcoming decisions facing House leaders. Gingrich warned that there is a real danger of electing someone only to have a group of dissatisfied individuals cause further chaos in a few weeks' time.
This risk is heightened by the fact that any new speaker will face the same difficult choices that Kevin McCarthy faced when he narrowly prevented a government shutdown last month. McCarthy, aware that he couldn't meet the extreme demands for spending cuts from conservative hardliners given the Democratic Senate and White House, had to rely on Democratic votes to pass a temporary funding bill. Unfortunately, this decision ultimately cost him his position as speaker.
The increasing pressure to fill the position of speaker could serve as a catalyst for the GOP to eventually resolve the stalemate. However, there is a concern that a candidate who compromises may lack the experience of developing a strong support system within the Capitol and fundraising circuit, thereby potentially lacking effectiveness as a leader of a divided conference.
The reality that party leaders can only afford to lose four votes and still secure the passage of a bill strictly along party lines has exposed the significant divisions within the conference. This further emphasizes the absence of a dependable Republican majority for any legislation in the House at present.
Rep. Brett Guthrie of Kentucky, for instance, said the leadership crisis "shows that were not functioning as a majority. And when you lose that, you lose the ability to govern."
How Americans could pay the price for the Houses dysfunction
The GOP's prospects for the 2024 elections are grim due to internal divisions that have paralyzed the House. This inability to push through their agenda not only undermines their chances of proving their effectiveness to voters but also prevents them from leveraging their power to force Democrats into difficult political decisions. As the leadership crisis drags on, the negative repercussions are not limited to the party alone. If not resolved soon, the damage could have far-reaching consequences both nationally and internationally.
A government shutdown poses a threat to countless Americans, including members of the armed services who may not receive their pay. Additionally, due to the paralysis in the House, lawmakers are unable to vote on providing emergency aid to Israel during its conflict with Hamas. Furthermore, President Biden's requested $60 billion aid package for Ukraine is at a standstill. This impasse also affects crucial appropriations bills concerning farming, energy, foreign operations, and more. According to Rep. Larry Bucshon, a Republican from Indiana, this situation is harmful to the country and the Republican Party itself, especially in light of ongoing global and domestic challenges.
I believe it places us in a disadvantageous position. We lack the presence of a House Speaker to engage in negotiations with the White House and the Senate Democrats who hold the majority. This situation certainly puts us at a political disadvantage.
Moreover, from a practical standpoint, this is not beneficial for our nation.
