The Global Footprint of Football: Unlocking the Boundless Potential

Football is globally renowned as the most popular sport, yet its success and wealth have predominantly been concentrated in Europe and South America throughout the years.

Similarly, football tourism largely revolves around a limited number of leagues and countries, with the Premier League reigning supreme.

Will football's dominant teams shift away from their traditional regions? Will we witness the transfer of national and domestic prowess to Africa, Asia, or North America? Alternatively, could leagues such as the Premier League relocate to foreign locations?

As part of the Future of Football project, we asked the magic eight ball three major questions about the globality of the game over the next two decades...

The eight ball says: Don't count on it

"Football sparks dreams in individuals, enabling them to envision a future full of possibilities. We have consistently nurtured the dreams of countless children, both in Morocco and across the globe, who aspire to emerge victorious in the prestigious World Cup.

"Our remarkable progress thus far serves as a testament to our unwavering dedication, and it fuels our desire to replicate this triumph. By consistently scaling the heights of the semi-finals or quarter-finals, we believe that one day we will hoist the coveted trophy of the World Cup."

Following Morocco's impressive performance in Qatar, where they made history as the first African nation to reach the semi-finals of the World Cup, head coach Walid Regragui was brimming with ambition and confidence. This confidence was further bolstered three months later when they secured their first-ever win against the five-time world champions Brazil in a friendly match held in Tangier in March 2023.

But what are the realistic chances of a team from outside of the established elite claiming World Cup glory in the coming decades?

History is not on Morocco's side.

All 22 World Cups held thus far have been claimed by either a European or South American team. Considering the current FIFA rankings, where teams from these continents hold the majority in the top 10, disrupting this pattern proves to be an enormous undertaking.

Where and how can a new dominant force arise amid existing federations?

Mega populations

Unleashing the Untapped Potential: China and India

When considering untapped potential, it is impossible to overlook the immense populations of China and India. With a staggering combined population of nearly three billion individuals, the realm of possibility suggests that hidden talents lie within these countries, waiting to be both discovered and nurtured, ultimately propelling them onto the global football stage.

Yet, the football landscapes in both China and India prove to be intricate and multifaceted.

China's strong financial venture into football during the mid-2000s caused a significant stir in the sport. It attracted renowned players to the Chinese Super League but always appeared too extreme to be sustainable, as ultimately proved to be the case. This may serve as a cautionary tale for players who are considering joining the Saudi Arabian league. As the political impetus driving the Chinese boom diminishes and even the eight-time champions Guangzhou succumb to financial crisis, the growth of the game has considerably slowed.

Moreover, there is not a single Chinese player currently featuring in any of Europe's top five leagues, and the investment has not yielded the desired results on the international stage. Disheartening losses to Vietnam and Oman were low points during their failed attempt to qualify for the previous World Cup, resulting in a lowly 81st ranking in FIFA's standings.

India's football ranking has fallen even further, sitting at a bleak 101st position. Stephen Constantine, a British coach who has had two stints managing the country and recently coached in the Indian Super League, sheds light on the extensive challenges hindering India's ability to transform their immense population into a triumphant football system.

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Stephen Constantine has had two spells as India national team manager

"We had the derby here in February, with my team East Bengal facing off against Mohun Bagan, and there were approximately 60,000 to 70,000 fans," he mentioned. "I have even experienced a stadium packed with 110,000 attendees for the same derby match. This truly highlights the immense passion that exists for football in India.

"While football is dearly cherished by many in our nation, there are various external factors that influence its prominence. For instance, the media and advertising industry heavily prioritize cricket over other sports."

"When I reflect on my arrival here 20 years ago, there has been a noticeable increase in awareness of football. It has undoubtedly progressed. The Indian Super League offers a remarkable package and outstanding production. However, when it comes to the quality of football itself, it falls short of matching the impressive production standards.

"Why does this disparity exist? Why don't we see any Indian players thriving in foreign leagues? Why haven't we been successful in winning the AFC Champions League or Asian Cup? The answer lies in the insufficient skills of our players. In my opinion, the key lies in prioritizing and providing proper emphasis on coach education, which we have unfortunately neglected. Improved coaches inevitably lead to better players."

"The absence of early-age information exposure is evident for Indian players, in contrast to their European counterparts who typically acquire it by the age of 15 or 16. Undoubtedly, there is an abundance of talent here, yet possessing talent is merely the initial step; the subsequent challenge lies in nurturing and harnessing it, an area where we fall short currently."

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Constantine says he is frustrated by the speed of development in the India Super League

Constantine indicates that the development of the game in India is influenced by cultural factors as well. When questioned about the possibility of a player from the Indian Super League transitioning to the Premier League, he firmly asserts that it is highly unlikely. According to him, Indian players are earning substantial amounts of money in India that they would never come close to earning if they played abroad.

I used to be with Pathos FC and wondered why I neglected to bring a few of the Indian players along. Some of them had the ability to compete there, but we could only offer them €3,000 per month, whereas these players were earning €10,000 per month in India. Why would they choose to come to Cyprus?

The Indian national team players receive a substantial salary that they wouldn't receive elsewhere. The clubs are paying inflated amounts for these Indian players due to the scarcity of quality players from India.

The sense of family here is immense. A family usually consists of 30-40 individuals living under the same roof. When you are earning a substantial income, you are responsible for taking care of numerous people. Africa faces a similar challenge, with the responsibility of looking after extended families. This poses another predicament for Indian players who consider playing abroad, such as in Thailand. They often conclude that it is better to remain at home with their families where everyone is content. With Constantine highlighting the various issues within the Indian football system, the possibility of qualifying for the World Cup, let alone winning it, seems incredibly distant.

"When questioned about the possibility of the country participating in a World Cup in the upcoming decades, he expressed his skepticism. Our qualification for the Asian Cup was a narrow one and all three matches took place in Calcutta against weaker opponents.

"If we fail to prioritize the growth and training of our coaches and young players, the innate talent would be futile. India has long struggled with this issue since my involvement in 2000."

Will the underdogs have their day?

After devoting 23 years to football in this country, it is disheartening to see that we have not made as much progress as I had hoped. It sincerely pains me.

Of course, size is not the sole determinant of success, as exemplified by Croatia, who defeated Morocco in the third-place play-off in Qatar. Notably, this is not the first occasion that Croatia has performed exceptionally well considering their population of only four million.

What lessons can smaller nations aspiring to make an impact on the global stage learn from Iceland's accomplishments?

Lars Lagerback, a vital figure in the Icelandic improvement, assumed control in 2011 and co-led the team in France with co-head coach Heimir Hallgrimsson. According to Lagerback, a successful combination of early-age coaching, players gaining experience in top-notch foreign leagues, efficient organization both on and off the field, and a stroke of luck with a talented generation are all indispensable components.

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Iceland stunned England at Euro 2016 - but sustaining that level is difficult for smaller nations

Once the necessary elements are established and qualification is attained, tournament football poses new challenges. In this realm, experience becomes crucial, as stated by Lagerback, who successfully led Sweden to a country-record of five consecutive major tournaments before joining Iceland. Teams venturing into uncharted territory require guidance in various aspects, including discovering a winning style against formidable opponents and effectively managing training schedules during tournament periods.

"It's a completely different experience," he remarks regarding coaching at a European Championships or World Cup.

"With the national team, you get slightly more time than usual, and it's quite easy for newcomers or those lacking experience to become overly ambitious during training, trying to accomplish too much."

Experience is crucial, not only for the players but also for the entire staff. This is especially important for smaller countries who should aim to retain that experience or effectively transfer it to incoming staff when coaches or team members depart. Lagerback personally witnessed how success can drastically change the perception and energy surrounding a team. When he first arrived in Iceland, matches would have only a few thousand spectators, but soon enough, they were attracting 10% of the nation's population as they found a winning formula.

Their fans, as well as their memorable 'Viking Clap', brought a fresh and distinctive atmosphere to the 2016 Euros and 2018 World Cup. The 2026 World Cup, expanded by FIFA to include 48 teams, will also bring a renewed and diverse spectacle to the stands in Canada, Mexico, and the United States.

However, despite the increased chances for teams that have historically faced difficulties in qualifying for major tournaments, Lagerback argues that the larger format does not necessarily favor them.

"I believe this poses a drawback for small countries as they require a sizable number of players," he stated. "You inevitably end up with fatigued and injured players, especially when engaging in a tightly-packed schedule. On the contrary, big countries have an advantage in this aspect due to their ability to field a large squad."

Africa's potential

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How could Senegal, an African nation, secure victory in the World Cup?

Lagerback's involvement in international football included a short period coaching Nigeria in the 2010 World Cup. Despite the campaign's lack of success, it left him with the belief that Senegal could potentially assert itself as a formidable force in global football.

Nigeria possesses tremendous potential in terms of players. With greater organization, both within the team and surrounding it, this country has the opportunity to excel. I was in Nigeria 12 years ago, and even then, the players displayed remarkable skill.

America's game?

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"USA's men's team has the potential to make a run for the World Cup title very soon," says Cindy Parlow Cone, head of US Soccer

The USA might just be the ideal country that fulfills all the aforementioned criteria - population, a growing pool of talented individuals, experience in tournaments, and a well-established, motivated structure centered around effective coaching.

Given that the United States will be co-hosting the upcoming World Cup, it is evident that there is a heightened determination to excel in the tournament. If they manage to perform admirably and produce unexpected results, it could potentially serve as a catalyst and a source of inspiration for even greater achievements in the future.

Cindy Parlow Cone, the president of US Soccer, is optimistic about the potential of the current generation of players and their prospects in 2026.

"Our men's national team is youthful, energetic, and incredibly entertaining to watch. It was truly inspiring to witness their progress leading up to and during the World Cup last year. As we look ahead to 2026, I share the sentiment of various studies that suggest our team has the ability to contend for the World Cup title in the near future. While I haven't conducted any studies myself and there may be some bias, I sincerely believe in our team's capabilities."

The upcoming World Cup is anticipated to be the grandest event ever witnessed globally, and hosting it in our own country is expected to greatly contribute to its overall development. Parlow Cone highlighted the extensive efforts that have already been invested in developing the game in the United States.

"Our sporting department, professional leagues, youth organizations, and development academy, all managed by US Soccer, have significantly influenced the development and expansion of both men's and women's teams. As a result, we are witnessing the game's growth and observing an increasing number of players engaging in our sport. This could potentially become a successful strategy. However, the historical background and structure of the World Cup still favor the already established elite teams."

The eight ball says: Very doubtful

The debate surrounding the 39th game has been discussed before - the concept of Premier League clubs playing an additional round of matches in a foreign country. When the concept was first introduced in 2008, it received some support but mostly faced opposition, resulting in the idea being dormant for the past 15 years.

The Premier League's tremendous surge in popularity since 2008 negates the need for matches to be played in foreign countries, unlike Italy and Spain who have held their equivalent of the Community Shield in Saudi Arabia lately. Presently, the Premier League insists that they have no intention of hosting games abroad.

However, the Premier League Summer Series emerges as the largest endeavor to export England's top-flight to a foreign nation for pre-season matches. Earlier this summer, close to a third of the Premier League clubs competed against each other in multiple fixtures in the United States, giving the impression to many that this could be a starting point for potential regular matches overseas.

This is not the first occasion where the Premier League has associated itself with a pre-season tournament. Between 2003 and 2019, the Asia trophy was held every two years, and Richard Scudamore, the chief executive of the Premier League at that time, predicted that its triumph would inspire the organization of comparable tournaments on other continents.

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Seven Premier League sides took part in the summer series

Why is the Premier League increasingly dedicating more resources and teams to pre-season tournaments held overseas? This move can be attributed to the League's direct competition with Formula One and the Champions League in terms of audience, broadcast revenue, and sponsorship.

According to Phil Carling, former FA commercial director and current senior vice president at Octagon, the Premier League has a disadvantage compared to Formula One and the Champions League. While Premier League matches are limited to one country, F1 and Champions League games are held globally and across continents, which makes them more appealing to sponsors. Carling suggests that if the Premier League wants to maintain its superiority and attract audiences across multiple markets, they need to consider the locations of their games.

That's why the Premier League Asia trophy and the Summer Series in the United States exist - they allow clubs' sponsors to engage with a market beyond the UK. These pre-season tournaments play a role in addressing the Premier League's tendency to be solely focused on one country. Notably, the league has gained increased popularity in the United States thanks to the easily accessible NBC broadcast deal. In fact, viewership of the Premier League on NBC grew by 3 percent during the 2022/23 season.

Could 'soccer' league matches be played in London, following the Premier League Summer Series, considering that major American sports like football, baseball, and basketball have already held matches there in recent years?

However, the introduction of an independent regulator by the UK government would pose a challenge. This organization would prevent any breakaway league, similar to the launch of the European Super League in 2021, and could potentially include matches that are not accessible to the UK audience.

"There doesn't seem to be an immediate prospect of regular league matches taking place in remote markets, similar to what we see in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. It's unlikely to obtain the necessary consensus, and the government wouldn't permit it," Carling remarks.

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The UK will host three NFL games again in 2023

Content may include more and potentially more lucrative tournaments involving Premier League clubs that are connected to the league. One possibility is to establish a sidebar involving Premier League clubs and their equities, with a competitive structure focused on markets where the Premier League holds significant strength. This could include Asia, Asia Pacific, North America, and potentially the Middle East. According to Carling, who served as Arsenal's first marketing director, the Premier League is already far ahead of other European leagues and therefore does not need to go abroad. On the other hand, leagues like Spain and Italy can benefit from playing matches, such as their Super Cups, in countries like Saudi Arabia to enhance their commercial assets.

Unexpectedly, the emergence of a competitive league in Saudi Arabia poses a threat that no one anticipated. This raises the question of whether it could alter the Premier League's strong stance against playing matches overseas.

Carling discusses the future commercial pressures that the Premier League may face in the next five years. The Saudi League has already shown its intentions by targeting 150 players to join their league. Initially, it was assumed that only aging players like Karim Benzema and Luka Modric would be approached, but the presence of 26-year-old Ruben Neves suggests a shift in their strategy.

If the Premier League begins to face pressure due to a significant loss of talent to another league – possibly Saudi Arabia – they would need to consider measures to restore balance, as the audience's loyalty lies with the talented players.

Currently, the Premier League enjoys a substantial lead and have been managing their affairs smoothly. Therefore, there is no immediate incentive for them to venture overseas.

"But talent follows money, eyeballs follow talent and money follows eyeballs…"Sam Blitz

The eight ball says: Very doubtful

Opinions on the half-and-half scarf are evenly split.

For certain individuals, it is a source of ridicule and represents a matchday tradition that is completely unfamiliar to those who have faithfully followed their local team for countless years, participating in the same rituals before and after each game.

Many times, mocking the half-and-half scarf on social media is seen as an opportunity to easily score a point in a humorous way. However, there is a deeper reason for this contempt.

According to some, the half-and-half scarf symbolizes a neutrality that is slowly eroding the passionate and partisan culture found in club football, which has been a significant factor in its immense popularity worldwide.

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Some fans opt to wear a unique scarf that portrays both Liverpool's Mohamed Salah and Manchester City's Erling Haaland. The other group, however, participates in the half-and-half scarf trade to acquire a tangible keepsake from a meticulously prepared event, rather than due to indifference towards the sport.

These dedicated fans have traveled longer distances and incurred higher costs to reach the stadium. With the exponential growth in the Premier League's worldwide viewership, there has been a corresponding increase in the number of football tourists visiting the UK.

During the period from 2011 to 2019, the annual count of tourists attending live football matches as part of their UK visit surged by 66 percent, rising from 990,000 to 1.5 million.

Football tourism is rapidly gaining momentum and, considering its ability to generate substantial revenue during typically slower months for the tourism industry, it is highly unlikely that any government will impede its progress.

Are we soon approaching a scenario where a significant majority of seats at a Premier League stadium will be occupied by tourism fans, defined here as supporters who have traveled from abroad to attend matches?

The likelihood of such a outcome seems improbable, considering both the basic numerical analysis and a more detailed examination of the potential developments in football fandom over the next two decades.

During the previous season, the average seating capacity of a Premier League stadium stood at 40,596, with a combined total of over 15.4 million seats available for all top-flight matches in 2022-23.

Applying the 66 percent growth witnessed between 2011 and 2019 to the next two decades, although an oversimplified calculation to draw any definite conclusions from, would result in approximately 7 million football tourists visiting the UK in 2043. However, this number still falls short of filling even half of the seats available in the Premier League stadiums during a single season.

It is worth noting that the distribution of football tourists is heavily skewed among the 20 top-flight clubs, with Manchester United (226,000) and Liverpool (213,000) attracting the highest numbers in 2019.

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In 2019, a total of 226,000 tourists attended a Premier League match held at Old Trafford. When considering these figures separately, it is noteworthy that tourists constituted approximately 16 percent of the crowd at Old Trafford and almost 21 percent at Anfield. These percentages significantly exceed the league's average of approximately 9 percent.

Therefore based on the current trajectory, the majority of seats in Manchester United and Liverpool stadiums would be filled by football tourists after 20 years. However, it is important to note that these numbers provide a limited understanding of the potential future scenario. They fail to consider the significant influence of global and cultural factors, which are more likely to shape the destiny of fan culture.

The pulling power of an authentic experience

Immersing oneself in the genuine atmosphere of a stadium is perhaps just as enticing as the actual match. The energetic ambiance that fills the stadium stems mainly from the collective presence of passionate local supporters. These fans play a significant role in the overall appeal of match days. In particular, the lively Kop stand is a major factor in Anfield's reputation as one of the top tourist destinations for football fans.

The fans are well aware of this fact and understand the influence they hold.

Responding to the increased ticket prices for the upcoming season, the Liverpool FC Supporters Board conveyed to the club that loyalty towards their football team is reciprocal. While fans cannot simply switch their allegiance to another club, it is their pockets that are being negatively impacted.

The ticket price increases, which usually do not bother the more extravagant football tourists, are causing worry about the negative effect on the long-term existence of a club's terrace culture. The Fulham Supporters' Trust recently expressed this concern in an open letter addressed to owner Shahid Khan.

"The exorbitant price of tickets not only drives away many loyal supporters of the club but also poses a threat to the team's ability to attract new fans and establish a diverse and inclusive fanbase."

Both clubs and governments will continue to embrace tourist fans, as they are willing to spend significantly more money on game days compared to locals.

Premier League clubs have a vested interest in maintaining a strong connection with local fans who play a crucial role in creating an appealing environment for tourism. Consequently, the number of tourists who are attracted to these clubs is expected to increase in the future. However, it is highly unlikely that by 2043, tourists alone will make up the majority of spectators in Premier League grounds. Michael Morrow