The Future of Football: Unveiling the Ownership Battle in the Next 20 Years

Gone are the days of the local businessman-done-good chairmen acting as custodians for leading English clubs.

If you don't have the billions, you're of no use.

What changes can we expect in the next two decades when it comes to club ownership? Will technology surpass human judgment in managing clubs? Will fans gain more or less influence in the running of their clubs?

Will football be increasingly controlled by a few "club conglomerates" with multiple satellite clubs? As part of the Future of Football project, we posed four key questions to the magic eight ball regarding the ownership of the game in the coming twenty years...

The eight ball says: Don't count on it

The European Super League's sudden emergence and subsequent demise in April 2021 spurred discussions about adopting the German ownership model within English football. Under this model, clubs would be required to have a majority ownership of at least 50 percent plus one vote, giving members a significant say in the decision-making process.

It works in the Bundesliga, where private or commercial investors are unable to take control and enforce profit-oriented measures that disregard the desires of fans. However, the general consensus among experts is that this model would not be feasible in our context, particularly in the higher divisions.

Germany is fertile ground for this democratic approach, as Englishman Jacob Sweetman, who looks after international media at Union Berlin, explains.

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The 50+1 model works in Germany but would it work in the Premier League?

Germany is a nation characterized by the presence of various members' clubs, including gardening clubs, card clubs, and many others. The significance of these clubs is deeply ingrained in the culture, and individuals actively participate in them.

Compared to England, the level of fan engagement within clubs on a daily basis is notably higher in Germany. It is more than just being a fan; it is an entire mindset of being a valued member of a club.

Why not in the Premier League? The reasons lie in both culture and finances.

"The English approach is solely focused on achieving success," states Sweetman. "In Germany, the emphasis is not always on directly challenging Bayern Munich for the top spot; rather, it is more about fostering a genuine connection with the sport. While we certainly celebrate qualifying for European competitions, it is not viewed as catastrophic if we don't."

So far, the fans have emerged victorious. Hoffenheim even recently transitioned back to being member-owned. I highly doubt that German fans will relinquish the 50+1 model in the next two decades. Conversely, I cannot envision a notable English club adopting this structure. It is truly disheartening. Currently, the average English fan is solely focused on achieving success at any cost.

According to football finance expert Kieran Maguire, expecting a majority fan-owned club in the Premier League is unrealistic. Even Championship clubs are facing an average weekly loss of £400,000. Fans simply lack the financial resources required to compete at that level.

Legally, implementing 50+1 in the Premier League would be extremely difficult. The Premier League is made up of share-owned clubs like Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Brighton. These club owners would be reluctant to vote for 50+1 as it would mean relinquishing their power.

Will partial fan ownership rise?

Exploring Alternatives: Fan Ownership in the Premier League - a Viable Option?

In considering potential alternatives to the current majority ownership model in the Premier League, an interesting proposition arises: what if all clubs were to allocate a small stake for ownership by fans? This idea is advocated by Gary Neville, who believes it represents the only conceivable future for the league.

"The prospect of a fully fan-owned club in the Premier League seems highly unlikely. The existing model has evolved to a point where it has become prohibitively expensive and unattainable."

Partial models of fan ownership are often observed, whether through representation on the board, having a voice in decision-making, or by holding a minority stake, which is considered to be more feasible. In my opinion, it is crucial for fans to possess a minority stake, and I believe that it may become a requirement with the implementation of suitable regulations. The complete fan ownership model has demonstrated success in England, although it is better suited for lower-tier leagues and below.

According to Maguire, fan-owned clubs have a natural limit, which is likely at the lower League One level. The Championship, where losses are substantial, is not a viable option for fans due to their lack of significant financial resources. Additionally, fans have other important obligations in their lives. AFC Wimbledon, a club entirely owned by fans, achieved a remarkable accomplishment by ascending six divisions in just two decades to reach League One. However, they faced the risk of dropping back to non-league football this year, leading to suggestions for external investment. Despite this, the question remains: is outside investment ultimately unavoidable?

The full fat model

Fan ownership can take many forms, but none quite like Ebbsfleet Town. Back in 2007, this non-league club adopted an unprecedented approach to democracy, granting supporters the power to select the team, handle transfers, and even determine the fate of manager Liam Daish.

Through the online platform MyFootballClub, around 32,000 dedicated members paid a nominal fee for the opportunity to assume full control. While initial enthusiasm propelled this unique experiment to early success, interest eventually waned, leading to a decline in membership. Nonetheless, this model persevered for an impressive six-year period, capitalizing on the belief that fans know what's best for their beloved club.

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From 2007, Ebbsfleet United operated as an uber-democratic entity, allowing fans to pick the team, transfers, and even the future of manager Liam Daish

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Daish and Ebbsfleet enjoyed success during the six-year project

But can fans be relied upon to effectively manage a high-level football club? It is true that many have endured the consequences of owners who lack a deep understanding of football, football business, or even basic business knowledge. However, the expertise gained solely through hindsight and social media involvement may not necessarily qualify individuals for success in the corporate environment of the boardroom.

"Although we perceive ourselves as knowledgeable, it is commonly understood among football fans that we lack the necessary expertise to make operational decisions," according to Maguire. "As football fans, we take pleasure in assigning blame to others - if we were the ones making the decisions, we would not be able to allocate blame to ourselves!

"Funding is frequently the deciding factor that leads to the collapse of these decisions."

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Fans will persistently speculate on their preferred starting XIs, managers, and players. However, the more noticeable impact lies in the growing influence of fans on the finer aspects of the game.

Several Premier League badges have been selected by fans, and there is the potential for kits to be chosen by fans in the future. Their influence is already evident in matchday facilities, transport issues, ticket pricing, and more. Nevertheless, for many, this represents the bare minimum. When it comes to matters of investment, core finances, and on-pitch affairs, the responsibility will likely remain in the hands of the 'experts' for at least the next few decades.

Don't like it? Protest away in the hope the powers that be are conscious and empathetic towards fans' interests.Gerard Brand

The eight ball says: most likely

"We should not outright reject the idea of investments due to the increased interest. However, it is crucial to establish strict regulations to ensure fairness and preserve the essence of competition," said Aleksander Ceferin, president of UEFA, during an interview on Gary Neville's Overlap podcast. Ceferin's remarks barely close the door on multi-club ownership models (MCOs) and do little to alleviate concerns about potential threats to competition and the possible widening of the gap between the richest clubs and others.

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In the 2022/23 season, at the beginning, privacy options were opened in football with nine Premier League clubs being connected to 25 clubs globally using an MCO approach, either through majority or minority ownership.

What are the advantages? By bypassing post-Brexit transfer regulations, diversifying your chances of avoiding relegation, sharing sponsorship opportunities, and providing operational coverage.

Football financial specialist Kieran Maguire has been monitoring the growth of MCOs for ten years. "MCOs mitigate risk," he explains. "If a club you possess gets relegated, it can have a significant financial impact. However, owning seven clubs ensures that not all of them will face relegation, thereby minimizing the potential losses from an investment standpoint."

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The same sports science, technology, and training regimes can be implemented throughout to ensure consistency. Only one HR department is required, and the central costs are absorbed by the big club. Players with raw talent who are not deemed good enough for Man City's first team can gain experience by playing football elsewhere, while also familiarizing themselves with the culture and systems of the main club.

British clubs, previously hindered by Brexit rules from directly signing European players under the age of 18, can now collaborate with European clubs using this model. They can recruit young players to participate in EU leagues such as Belgium, Portugal, and the Netherlands, earn the necessary work permit qualification points, and subsequently sign them for the main club. Although the FA has introduced new criteria to provide clubs with greater access, the trend of developing talent elsewhere is unlikely to diminish.

Maguire states that top clubs have the ability to recruit players, provide them with a few years of experience, and if they perform exceptionally well, they can be brought to England.

The number of MCO models has increased to seventy from twenty-eight in 2017. City Football Group, the model used by Manchester City, extends to ten clubs located in five different continents. Brighton is now associated with Royal Union Saint-Gilloise in Belgium, and in February, Aston Villa's owners V Sports maintained their consistent approach by acquiring a share in Vitoria in Portugal.

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In December 2022, the number of teams participating in an MCO model worldwide has significantly increased by 350% since 2012, with over 180 teams involved. According to UEFA's Intelligence Centre, approximately 7,000 players are currently registered with a club operating under an MCO structure.

Out of the total number of top-division clubs, 83 of them, which accounts for 11 percent, have established cross-investment partnerships with one or more clubs. The country with the highest number of shareholders involved in cross-ownership relations is the USA, which is part of 27 multi-club groups. The rate of growth is intensifying.

Who are the main players?

Additional, numerous possibilities...

The nightmare scenario

In spite of the ease of player development, transfer loopholes, and sponsorship concerns, the primary concern lies in the jeopardy posed to the very core of sports: competition.

According to Maguire, the unfavorable outcome would be if football is controlled by around twelve different companies. This is detrimental to the sport as it serves as a hub for local history, culture, and memories. Another concern relates to maintaining fair competition and uncertainty. When two clubs are owned by the same individual and participate in European tournaments, there is a potential for manipulating outcomes and influencing matches.

UEFA and FIFA must enforce stricter regulations to address the issue. According to UEFA regulations, clubs participating in UEFA competitions are prohibited from holding shares or exerting management control over another club.

In light of potential conflicts in the upcoming Europa League and Europa Conference League, the owners of Brighton and Aston Villa have decided to reduce their stakes in their respective clubs.

However, there will inevitably be some resistance. If INEOS were to take over Man Utd, it would be viewed as a test case due to their involvement with OGC Nice. Additionally, if Sheikh Jassim Bin Hamad Al Thani were to acquire United, there would be scrutiny regarding the links between Qatar's PSG and the club.

Nevertheless, the extent of UEFA's authority in this matter is uncertain. A loophole was created in 2017 when RB Leizpig and RB Salzburg were permitted to compete in the Champions League after Red Bull relinquished ownership of Salzburg. This decision was significant as Salzburg had not qualified for the CL group stage since 1994, essentially giving them an advantage.

Unless rules are tightened considerably, we'll see the heightened possibility of messy and soul-destroying scenarios.

Just imagine:

Farfetched as they may seem, can anything be ruled out?

"The options are that it stays like that or that we allow them to play in the same competition. I'm not sure yet."

That's UEFA president Ceferin, again not providing much faith.

The closed-shop model of the European Super League came and went, but it is expected to make a comeback in the future. Similarly, the MCO models are likely to widen the gap between the many and the few in the game.

The eight-ball says: Don't count on it

The fear of machines taking over has been a long-standing concern in society. The rapid advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) have prompted many to question the potential replacement of human labor by technology.

With the exception of physically playing the sport, AI is increasingly infiltrating various aspects of football. Whether it's purchasing tickets online or competing against computer-controlled opponents in video games, AI silently guides us through these experiences.

Could AI effectively manage a football club? Can it handle financial matters, use data to make decisions on hiring and firing managers, and maybe even select the team?

After all, club owners are often criticized for being anonymous and prone to making errors.

The theory that AI could solve both of these issues is based on the notion that this technology operates without any personal bias and relies on data to make logical decisions. However, the question remains: is this theory feasible?

We have interviewed two prominent AI companies within the football industry. The first one is Ai.io, which employs their AI Scout app to aid clubs such as Chelsea, Burnley, and all the teams in the Major League Soccer (MLS) in their talent recruitment for their academies.

The app analyzes video footage of drills and utilizes the AI's understanding of what constitutes a skilled football player in order to calculate a performance score. If the score surpasses a certain threshold, scouts from various clubs will be notified and the players may be offered trial opportunities or potentially signed by a club.

In the meantime, Soccerment, a data company, employs AI technology to provide comprehensive feedback and analysis to football players at all levels in order to enhance their performance. One of the methods they employ to collect data is by integrating AI chips into shin pads, a practice adopted by numerous professional clubs throughout Europe.

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Soccerment employs AI chips in shin pads to facilitate data tracking. While both companies primarily prioritize the on-pitch aspect of football, which represents the most prevalent application of AI in the sport, Soccerment CEO Aldo Comi reveals that AI also finds utility in the management of clubs.

Ticket prices can be improved by applying predictive analytics. By analyzing past ticket sales data, taking into account weather forecasts, the strength of the opponent, and other factors, a more accurate pricing strategy can be developed to maximize stadium occupancy.

"While a few clubs have already adopted this approach, many more are expected to follow in the future. This will contribute to the continual enhancement of efficiency and management within football clubs."

However, the challenge in bridging the gap between football and AI lies in the reliance on predictive data, which proves to be difficult due to the unpredictable nature of football. Hence, human involvement remains crucial at all levels of the sport, including executive positions like ownership.

According to Comi, football is a challenging and unique sport that cannot be easily replaced by AI due to its non-repetitive nature. He believes that replacements in football will not happen quickly or in the near future.

Richard Felton-Thomas, the CEO of AI.io, emphasizes the importance of the human element in football. He believes that qualities such as attitude and behavior, which humans instinctively understand, should always be present in the sport.

There will always be nuances in every aspect where humans need to be engaged. How should a player handle adversity when faced with defeat? How do they effectively follow coaches' instructions? The human element is still essential in dealing with the data.

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Chelsea use AI to help recruit into their youth academy

Comi argues that AI should not be viewed as a substitute for important roles in football, such as managers, sporting directors, chairmen, or owners.

I believe that it can serve as a crucial support, increasingly important, across various positions at all levels, including club owners.

While I don't anticipate artificial intelligence taking charge of managing a team, I am confident that within six months or even less, assistant coaches will rely on virtual assistants for assistance.

However, what Comi brings to the table is the understanding that while football remains too unpredictable for artificial intelligence, AI itself remains too unpredictable for us.

"It is truly remarkable to witness the rapid evolution of this technology," he remarks. "Its growth is exponential."

"I anticipate a multitude of intriguing developments in the upcoming six to 12 months in this sphere. It would not be unexpected to witness the integration of AI into the operations of the most advanced football clubs, establishing a significant presence." Sam Blitz

The eight ball says: most likely

The distance between Bournemouth and Newcastle is approximately 350 miles, making it the longest trip an English Premier League team will have to undertake this season for a top-tier match.

The Premier League is geographically more compact, even parochial, compared to its 'top five' rivals in Europe. However, its appeal extends far beyond those 350 miles. Geographically speaking, the Premier League is exclusively England's competition.

The club is considered the top football competition globally in terms of various measures. In the 2019-20 season, its worldwide viewership reached 3.2 billion, which is twice as much as the Champions League.

The international appeal has led to increased profits and financial dominance that surpasses other leagues. Additionally, foreign companies now have a strong inclination to associate themselves with this product.

Foreign ownership is a well-established trend in the Premier League. Out of the 20 teams set to commence the 2023-24 campaign, a significant majority of 15 are under the control of owners from countries other than the UK. An interesting observation is that eight of these majority owners hail from the United States.

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Fifteen of the 20 Premier League clubs have foreign ownership

Looking ahead to the next 20 years, will we witness a decline in club ownership from the USA, Asia, and the Middle East? Or is it more probable that the trend will persist and potentially gain momentum? The key to finding an answer lies in the Premier League's unparalleled global reputation. In terms of finances, it remains supreme, boasting 11 out of the top 20 positions in the Deloitte's 2023 Football Money League.

The days of local businessmen aspiring to hold a significant stake in a Premier League club are long gone, given the staggering £6bn valuation of Manchester United by the Glazers. According to former managing director of We Barney Francis, the Premier League is now the domain of top managers and the best players, offering a fiercely competitive football environment.

A loss of status?

The trajectory seems clear. Acquiring shares in IT companies and property in Manhattan may not exert the same allure as possessing a Premier League club.

Is there any sign of this changing within the next 20 years?

For pattern to be broken the Premier League would need to lose its status atop the club football tree.

The Saudi Pro League undoubtedly presents a fresh and relatively unfamiliar challenge to established leagues.

Backed by virtually boundless financial resources from the nation's sovereign wealth fund, four teams within the league have shaken up the international transfer market within a short span of time. This enticing opportunity has attracted renowned players to a previously overlooked competition.

Despite being relatively unknown, the Saudi state is aiming to use sport as a way to diversify its economy and reduce dependence on non-renewable oil. However, it is unlikely that the Pro League will challenge the Premier League's position and attractiveness to foreign owners in the near future. The Premier League has a rich history and strong community ties, making it a profitable enterprise. On the other hand, the Saudi league currently lacks profitability and shows little indication of becoming profitable in the short or medium term.

Premier League chief executive Richard Masters noted that there is a clear shift happening. He mentioned that the Saudi Pro League aims to become one of the top 10 leagues in due course, and their investments are evident in this pursuit.

Masters further emphasized that the Premier League operates as a £6 billion economy, with every penny earned reinvested into sustaining the competition, supporting players, and managing the league. He highlighted the need for all leagues to generate revenue for long-term sustainability.

A fan-powered league

In order to maintain its worldwide reputation, it is crucial for the league to avoid engaging in irresponsible actions that antagonize its fanbase.

The brief presence of six elite clubs in the ill-fated European Super League showcased the unparalleled influence held by a club's fanbase.

The recently released white paper by the UK government guarantees that supporters will possess a stronger voice in determining club ownership.

However, this is unlikely to discourage foreign or state ownership, as the UK government has stated that such ownership will not be restricted when an independent football regulator is appointed. In fact, Qatar's interest in acquiring Manchester United indicates that states see a Premier League club as a viable option, especially after the UAE's purchase of Manchester City and the more recent takeover of Newcastle by Saudi PIF.

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Qatari Sheikh Jassim Bin Hamad J.J. Al Thani has made an offer to acquire Manchester United. The Newcastle United takeover garnered a positive response from the majority of the fanbase. According to a survey conducted by the Newcastle United Supporters Trust (NUST) in April 2020, 96.7 percent of respondents supported the takeover.

Despite widespread concerns over 'sportswashing' - the practice of using sport as a distraction from a country's poor human rights record - most fans remained supportive of the takeover. This was mainly because of the unfavorable state the club was in during its previous ownership by Mike Ashley.

The Manchester United Supporters Trust expressed similar sentiments in an open letter to potential new owners. They stated, "Over a significant period, the current owners have withdrawn hundreds of millions while the club has been consistently underperforming."

Rewards should not be given for failure, and the primary focus for profits must always be reinvesting in the club. As a result, foreign and state ownership in the Premier League is still widely accepted, and this trend is expected to persist due to the continuously increasing value of the clubs.