The Endgame of the Israel-Hamas Conflict: An Opinion
Controversy surrounds Israel-Hamas war's endgame as political goals and potential outcomes remain elusive amidst ongoing military response to the Hamas terror attack Stay informed with our free weekly newsletter #Israel #Hamas #conflict
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According to Gideon Rose's 2009 book, Americans perceive wars as large-scale street fights, where the primary objective is to defeat the enemy. Military leaders prioritize combat and often disregard the long-term repercussions. However, there comes a time in every war, referred to as the endgame, when the neglected political considerations resurface forcefully.
In her book, "How Wars End," Rose discovered that the United States' involvement in six conflicts, ranging from World War I to the Iraq War, was marred by a failure to thoroughly consider political issues.
During the past week, Israel's ongoing military response to the October 7 Hamas terror attack has generated significant controversy regarding its political objectives and the potential outcome. While the US has supported Israel's right to defend itself, President Joe Biden, facing pressure from within his party, has urged for a "pause" in the conflict due to humanitarian concerns.
In June 1982, Israel launched an invasion of Southern Lebanon with approximately 78,000 combat troops, as well as nearly 3,000 tanks and armored vehicles. The objective was to eradicate PLO terrorists, and in the short term, Israel experienced considerable success. Unfortunately, this military campaign had unintended consequences, including the formation of Hezbollah in July 1982. Consequently, there was widespread local support for Hezbollah, leading to a surge in suicide attacks. Ultimately, the Israeli army withdrew from a large portion of southern Lebanon in 1985, which allowed for the continued expansion of Hezbollah over the years.
Israel's approach to the war with Hamas has traditionally been to prioritize military action before attempting to address the political process. However, this strategy may actually have the unintended consequence of strengthening the bond between Hamas and the local population, ultimately leading to an increase in terrorist activities. There is an alternative solution: initiating the political process immediately, rather than delaying it, to pave the way for a Palestinian state and provide a viable political alternative to Hamas.
DJ Rosenthal, who served as director for counterterrorism at the US National Security Council under the Obama administration, emphasizes the importance of Israel taking utmost caution to minimize civilian casualties while pursuing its objectives against Hamas. Although Hamas deliberately uses civilians as human shields to complicate Israel's mission, Israel cannot use Hamas' disregard for human life as a justification to neglect its duty to protect civilians. Failing to do so would jeopardize Israel's security interests in the region, international support, and its own legitimacy.
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For instance, the recent strike by the Israel Defense Forces on Gaza's Jabalya refugee camp has raised concerns. Although the IDF claims it targeted high-level Hamas leaders, potentially justifying the strikes under international law, Israel cannot disregard the political implications. Bolivia, Chile, and Colombia have taken drastic diplomatic measures against Israel, and Jordan has recalled its ambassador from Tel Aviv. Additionally, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is currently visiting Israel, likely exerting private pressure on the Israeli government to prevent civilian casualties. Israel can expect further diplomatic consequences if such strikes persist.
Shai Davidai, an assistant professor of management at Columbia Business School, recently addressed a viral video taken on the university's campus in which he was seen crying. He described the overwhelming grief he experienced following the October 7 massacre in Israel orchestrated by Hamas terrorists. This grief stemmed from the senseless loss of thousands of innocent civilians who were subjected to unimaginable atrocities such as murder, mutilation, rape, and beheading. He also mourned the intentional killing of defenseless babies, some of whom were burned to the point of being unrecognizable, as well as the anguish felt for the innocent children who were forcibly taken hostage by violent individuals in Gaza.
Beyond this, however, Shai Davidai also delved into a deeper and more haunting grief. This grief came from a wound he believed was healed, yet still lingered. It was a grief that stemmed from the ongoing trauma hidden within the hearts of every Jewish individual. It was a sorrow that arose from witnessing, time and again, the targeted persecution and violence against the Jewish people in their own homes and communities.
Nadia AbuShaban joined a birthday celebration in Gaza for her nephew Hashem, who is twelve years old. She pondered about the limited opportunities available in Gaza and wondered about the impact of fear and violence on the young mind of Hashem. She also questioned when he would start comprehending the realities of life in Gaza and expressed concerns about whether he would survive to witness his upcoming birthdays.
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One year away
It is impossible to accurately predict the decision that US voters will make in the 2024 presidential election, even for the most knowledgeable political analyst. On November 8, 2016, the Upshot team at the New York Times gave Hillary Clinton an 85% probability of defeating Donald Trump in that day's election, and many other experts believed her chances were even higher.
The 2024 presidential election is anticipated to be a remarkably peculiar one, as highlighted by Karl Rove in the Wall Street Journal. With two extremely unpopular candidates leading their respective party's primary races, the stakes are high. Last weekend, Trump's former running mate, Mike Pence, made the decision to withdraw from the race for the GOP nomination. Recognized as a respectable individual with an impressive background, Pence was unfortunately deemed unlikely to succeed in the Republican presidential primary, according to fellow Republican Geoff Duncan.
"Since January 6, 2021, the former vice president has been an outcast, despised by the Trump supporters for his actions on that fateful day, and questioned by the opposing side for his unwavering allegiance to the former president until then."
Among Trump's competitors, only Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley has gained significant traction in the race. Duncan suggested that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis should emulate Pence's approach and withdraw from his campaign. "DeSantis could be remembered for gracefully stepping aside and paving the way for a candidate with higher chances of defeating Trump."
Haley and DeSantis, along with other candidates, will participate in the GOP debate on Wednesday, a potential solution for those seeking to move beyond the Trump era.
Lisa Benson/GoComics.com
Trumps immunity claim
The regular occurrences in numerous legal cases, whether civil or criminal, involving the previous president include gag orders, the involvement of Trump's children as witnesses, and pre-trial maneuvers. However, according to Norman Eisen and Joshua Kolb, the most notable advancement in the federal election subversion case could potentially be Donald Trump's request for the dismissal of the case based on his claim of presidential immunity, which protects him from prosecution for his actions while in office.
According to Eisen and Kolb, the government holds a stronger argument. They believe that the fundamental principle on which our nation was established, which remains pivotal in our justice system today, is that no individual, including a former president, should be exempt from the law. Granting a president absolute immunity would essentially give them monarchical powers, which goes against our history and our system of governing by law.
The authors strongly advise the judges considering this matter to expedite the process. Typically, legal matters as intricate as this could take years to go through all the necessary channels, eventually reaching the Supreme Court. The trial often waits until this slow progress is finally concluded.
Embracing uncertainty
That is an extravagance the nation cannot financially sustain. We must ascertain whether one of the frontrunners for the presidency flagrantly misused their authority to cling onto that position which they strive to regain.
Illustration by Leah Abucayan/CNN
Maggie Jackson frequents the Rhode Island ocean for swimming purposes almost every day. Accompanied by a group of dedicated individuals, she has become knowledgeable about the apps that provide information on wave height and wind intensity along the specific coastline where she swims. This knowledge has enabled them to develop an understanding of the local currents and determine the appropriate moments to seek refuge in a nearby harbor. Nevertheless, despite their preparations, Maggie and her friends remain uncertain about the exact conditions they will encounter.
The uncertainty includes concerns about whether the fog will dissipate in the morning or persist, rendering the beach invisible and posing potential dangers. Amidst these uncertainties, they are often left without definite answers. However, Maggie has learned to embrace this unpredictability, which serves as the central theme of her upcoming book, scheduled to be published on Tuesday.
"When faced with new, unclear, or surprising situations, the brain is flooded with stress hormones and chemicals," she explains. "As human beings, we are naturally inclined to seek answers. However, the discomfort of not knowing can be turned into an opportunity for cultivating curiosity, adaptability, and resilience, which are essential cognitive skills required during periods of change."
Threats on campus â and beyond
A junior at Cornell University has been taken into custody for making online threats targeting Jewish students on campus. However, Gabriel Levin, a sophomore and columnist for The Cornell Daily Sun, expresses his lack of satisfaction, stating that the presence of antisemitism still hangs over them.
"Members of the Jewish community at Cornell vary politically, ritually, and in terms of location. Nonetheless, today we find ourselves united in our apprehension for our security and the importance of open dialogue, which defines a university as a space where students can truly understand each other. The path to healing lies solely in embracing tolerance."
Antisemitism extends well beyond a single college campus, as described by Frida Ghitis. Passengers recently faced a distressing situation at the main airport in Dagestan, a primarily Muslim Russian republic. Upon the arrival of a flight from Tel Aviv, a large group forcefully entered the airport terminal and the tarmac. In a frightening display, some members of the crowd shouted "Allahu akbar" as they surrounded the passengers, demanding proof of their non-Jewish identity. Additionally, the crowd searched vehicles outside the terminal in search of Jews. One passenger shared with local media that he was allowed to pass after showing his Russian passport and being informed that non-Jews were not being targeted on that day.
"This particular moment in history has brought about a perfect convergence of factors leading to a rise in antisemitism. Recent events have unleashed the far right, where antisemitism is openly displayed, as well as elements of the left, where it is sometimes hidden behind arguments claiming to champion the marginalized and distorted interpretations of history," noted Ghitis.
Leana S. Wen: Israeli health care providers say they feel betrayed by friends and colleagues
Julian Zelizer: Progressives should never tolerate antisemitism
Speaker Johnsons first move
The House approved Speaker Mike Johnson's primary legislative initiative on Thursday, which involved passing a bill to allocate $14.3 billion as immediate assistance for Israel. Simultaneously, an equivalent sum was deducted from the Internal Revenue Service's budget, thereby reducing some of the funds acquired by the Biden administration to bolster tax audits targeting affluent individuals.
The issue? The bill does not effectively counterbalance the assistance provided to Israel. As per the Congressional Budget Office, reducing expenditure on the IRS would only contribute to the deficit, resulting in a loss of approximately $26.8 billion in revenue. "Why would anyone hold national security hostage unless we enable wealthy tax evaders to violate the law more easily?" questioned Paul Krugman in a column for the New York Times.
"However, I am concerned that the extreme unpleasantness of these proposals may shield them from thorough examination, as voters may find it hard to believe that such an idea is being considered."
Now that Johnson is second in line for the presidency, the speaker's opinions are facing heightened scrutiny. John Avlon wrote that it may come as a surprise to discover that the newly appointed Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, has expressed a viewpoint that challenges the notion of our democracy.
According to the definition provided by Merriam-Webster, democracy refers to a government by the people, particularly through majority rule. This is typically how most Americans experience elections, as the candidate with the highest number of votes emerges as the winner. This holds true in all races except for the presidency, due to the Electoral College, ranging from mayoral to senatorial to gubernatorial positions. Furthermore, voting rights have consistently expanded since the establishment of our nation, and this progress is widely celebrated as an advancement towards a more perfect union.
Johnson has expressed his concern about majority rule, comparing it to "two wolves and a sheep deciding what's for dinner" (a quote often misattributed to Benjamin Franklin). Instead, he believes that the Founders established America as a constitutional republic based on biblical principles.
Drew Sheneman/Tribune Content Agency
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Verdict on SBF
Clay Jones
The conviction of Sam Bankman-Fried on seven counts of fraud and conspiracy by a jury on Thursday is attributed to his personal poor decisions, according to Howard Fischer. Instead of condemning the entire industry, Fischer argues that the verdict reflects the absence of regulations that could have prevented Bankman-Fried from causing immense financial losses.
The young entrepreneur's final ill-advised decision occurred during his own trial. "Bankman-Fried's audacious appetite for risk manifested when he chose to testify in his own defense, subjecting himself to a fierce attack from the prosecution. Few criminal defendants dare to take such a bold gamble. Just like in previous instances, he exhibited his willingness to take disproportionately large risks with potentially dire consequences. However, this time he was not endangering investor funds or customer assets but rather his own personal freedom. It represented his last desperate attempt, akin to rolling the dice, and unfortunately, luck was not on his side."
Deepfakes
Filmmakers Sophie Compton and Reuben Hamlyn recount the harrowing tale of a 22-year-old engineering student who fell prey to the malicious act of deepfake pornography. The anonymous culprit shamelessly shared six deceitful videos on various porn platforms, impersonating the victim herself. Disconcertingly, the perpetrator divulged personal details such as her genuine college and hometown, even urging male visitors to engage in direct messaging with her, accompanied by a suggestive wink emoji. Alas, many heedlessly obliged, inundating her Facebook and Instagram with unsettling messages from unfamiliar men.
"When Taylor contacted the authorities, she was informed by a detective that the individual responsible had acted within their rights, and no legal violations had occurred," reveal Compton and Hamlyn, urging Congress to enact legislative reforms given the escalating prevalence of deepfake pornography, which predominantly victimizes women."
Stopping mass shooters
The recent mass shootings in Lewiston, Maine, which claimed the lives of 18 individuals, have brought attention to the ongoing deadlock in the United States' gun debate. The likelihood of the federal government enacting significant new gun safety measures appears bleak.
Peter Bergen and Laura Tillman wrote that there are promising efforts by US law enforcement and psychologists to gain a better understanding of how a mass shooter progresses towards violence and how males, who make up the majority of mass shooters, can be deterred or redirected from committing violent acts. They also mentioned that officials believe the public can play a crucial role in these efforts. The FBI specifically focuses on the involvement of "bystanders" - the individuals, such as peers or family members, who are most likely to come across concerning social media posts or alarming remarks made by someone on the path to violence.
"Bystanders have the potential to give the most effective early warnings. Sometimes, when they inquire whether a person is genuinely intending to carry out an attack, they may not receive a direct response as the person might sidestep the questions or provide false information. Nonetheless, it remains crucial to notify the authorities."
"A US government assessment reveals that when a bystander is aware of crucial information regarding a potential shooter but chooses to do nothing, that individual becomes 16 times more likely to eventually engage in an act of violence. This is because the potential shooter may interpret the bystander's silence as permission."
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ANDâ¦
Matthew Perry, friend
Matthew Perry as Chandler Bing
Matthew Perry, best known for his portrayal of Chandler Bing on the beloved TV show "Friends," passed away at the age of 54 last week. Fans of the show and especially Dean Obeidallah, expressed their grief over the loss of their favorite cast member.
The way Chandler Bing delivered his one-liners, often laced with sarcasm and self-deprecation, strongly resonated with me.
Chandler relied on humor as a coping mechanism to confront his insecurities and social awkwardness. He would often introduce himself with lines like, "Hi, I'm Chandler. I use jokes to ease my discomfort, and I'm not exactly the go-to person for advice. Care for a dose of sarcasm?"
Perry openly acknowledged the detrimental impact of alcohol and drugs on his life. Holly Thomas recalled that less than a year before his death, Perry emphasized that his greatest legacy would be his commitment to helping those struggling with addiction. Little did anyone know how soon his legacy would be put to the test.
In an episode of the first season of Friends, Phoebe's boyfriend Roger, who happens to be a psychiatrist, tells Chandler that he is funny and expresses his reluctance to witness the decline of his humor. Perry devoted years of his life to ensure that his own laughter would never cease. Behind the imperfect and vulnerable character of Chandler lied an even more flawed and vulnerable Perry. Although Perry wished to distance himself from Chandler, he kept him close, afraid of revealing his true self to others.
