The Complex Legacy of Ebrahim Raisi: Beyond His Funeral

From his time as a clerical student to overseeing executions for the judiciary, Ebrahim Raisi's life has been closely intertwined with Iran's turbulent modern history. However, despite this background, his presidency was surprisingly uneventful.

In contrast to past Iranian presidents, Raisi appeared satisfied to simply follow the orders of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei without question. Unlike his predecessor, the moderate cleric Hassan Rouhani, he did not show any resistance to Khamenei's policies. Raisi also lacked the charm of previous conservative presidents like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who, while obedient to Khamenei, still tried to assert some independence for the presidency.

When foreign dignitaries from 68 countries came together for Raisi's funeral, they may not have been focused on the late president. This death was not as impactful as the 2020 assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, who was known for his strategic influence in the Middle East and challenging the US.

Raisi’s absence may not have a significant impact, but his sudden passing comes at a crucial moment for Iran.

According to Trita Parsi, an Iran analyst based in Washington and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, foreign dignitaries will be closely observing Iran to gauge the country's current state. This is also a chance for them to showcase any shifts in their relationships with Iran.

Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, talks to CNN's Max Foster about the future of Iran after the passing of President Ebrahim Raisi. They discuss the upcoming search for his replacement and the possible tensions it may create among Iran's conservative leaders.

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What President Raisi’s death means for the future of Iranian politics

Iran is heavily involved in the conflict in Gaza, as Tehran-backed armed groups are in a back-and-forth with Israel and its allies in four different countries. In a rare move in April, Iran directly attacked Israel from its own territory following an Israeli airstrike on Tehran's consulate in Damascus.

During this tense period in the region, leaders from countries like Turkey, India, and China are being careful not to upset the situation. The recent deaths also come after years of diplomatic efforts to improve relations with former rivals in the region, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both of whom were present at the funeral.

Qatar’s emir, along with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait, were present at the funeral. Also in attendance was Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court, along with Israeli leaders.

Tens of thousands gathered in the streets to pay their respects at the funeral, tossing flowers onto the coffins. This massive turnout demonstrated strong support for the regime and showcased its influence. Despite deep divisions among Iran’s population, the regime proved its ability to rally a significant number of supporters.

Iranians follow a truck carrying the coffins of the late President Ebrahim Raisi and his companions during a funeral ceremony in Tehran, Iran.

Iranians follow a truck carrying the coffins of the late President Ebrahim Raisi and his companions during a funeral ceremony in Tehran, Iran.

Iran today does not appear to be the outcast state it was almost made out to be by former US President Donald Trump in 2018. This was when he withdrew from a significant nuclear deal established during Obama's presidency. The deal involved lifting sanctions in exchange for restrictions on Tehran's nuclear activities.

Parsi mentioned that funerals serve as an opportunity for countries to demonstrate their progress in repairing relations with Iran. He also highlighted the significant transformation that Iran's relations in the region have undergone.

Foreign dignitaries may engage in sideline conversations to gain insights into Khamenei's opaque and sometimes unpredictable stance on domestic policies, which could impact the region.

Constitutionally, a presidential election in Iran must be held within 50 days of the sitting president's passing. This short timeframe poses a challenge in preparing for an election that holds significant importance for the country's theocratic leadership. The outcome will impact the succession plans of the 85-year-old Khamenei, who is only the second Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. Additionally, the election could either calm or further ignite tensions following the youth-led uprising that shook the nation less than two years ago.

Khamenei holds significant influence over elections in Iran through the Guardian Council, made up of jurists appointed by the Supreme Leader. This council is responsible for vetting election candidates. In the 2021 presidential election, the majority of viable candidates were disqualified by the council, leaving Raisi as the clear path to the presidency. The election was widely viewed as heavily manipulated and resulted in a historically low voter turnout.

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Some people in Iran believe that the Raisi helicopter crash was caused by US sanctions. However, the reality behind the incident may be more complex.

It is possible that the leader will organize a similar event in the future. Alternatively, he may choose to take a different approach, allowing the next president of Iran to garner widespread public backing.

The upcoming election in Iran could be a significant moment, according to Iran analyst Mohammad Ali Shabani. He believes that there is a chance for the current leader, Khamenei, to change direction gracefully, create a new path, and give more freedom for people to participate.

Throughout his time in office, Raisi did not do much to change the perception of him as a powerless president. He faced criticism for overseeing the weakening of Iran's institutions.

The legislative elections in March saw a historically low turnout of only 41%. This year's nationwide uprising in 2022 presented the most significant internal challenge to the regime in many years. Following the harsh suppression of these protests, the divide between the regime and its youthful, mostly dissatisfied population has continued to widen.

According to Parsi, "Khamenei has steered the Islamic Republic towards a future where it can only maintain control through escalating repression."

Choosing to open up the election could help calm the frustrations of Iran's young population facing economic and political challenges. This decision may lead to a more stable domestic situation in Iran and potentially pave the way for a government that is more open to Western relations, similar to Rouhani's administration. However, analysts believe that this optimistic outcome may be too hopeful.

Parsi expressed that it is hard to understand why Khamenei would change his direction now. The regime does not believe that the current path is harmful to them. They prefer to maintain the status quo, especially with the upcoming succession of the Supreme Leadership. This will likely result in them sticking to their current course of action.

Editor's P/S:

The sudden demise of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has shaken the country's political landscape and created uncertainty about its future. While Raisi's presidency was relatively uneventful, marked by obedience to Supreme Leader Khamenei, his death comes amid ongoing tensions with Israel, diplomatic efforts in the region, and the upcoming search for his replacement. The presence of foreign dignitaries at his funeral highlighted Iran's efforts to repair international relations and their interest in assessing the country's current state.

Raisi's passing also raises concerns about the upcoming presidential election, which must be held within 50 days. Khamenei's influence over elections through the Guardian Council raises questions about the fairness and transparency of the process. Analysts believe that Khamenei faces a choice between allowing the next president to garner public support or continuing to suppress dissent and maintain control. The outcome of the election will have a significant impact on Iran's domestic stability, its relations with the West, and the country's overall future trajectory.