The Anticipated Impact of Rising Sea Levels in Cities that have Hosted Climate Summits
Alarming analysis reveals that rising sea levels pose an imminent threat to cities that have previously hosted climate summits, potentially leading to their submersion or severe inundation
Global leaders and delegates are currently convening in Dubai for the yearly UN climate summit. A recent analysis indicates that the host cities of past summits could potentially be flooded or completely submerged due to the rising ocean levels. The continuous increase in pollution that is warming the planet has already caused severe droughts, lethal floods, and the rapid melting of glaciers and ice across the globe. Scientists predict that the steady rise in global sea levels will persist for numerous decades as temperatures continue to rise.
According to Climate Central, a nonprofit climate research group, their analysis illustrates the potential consequences if countries are unable to stop the rapid warming of the planet. A recent UN report revealed that the world is currently on course to warm by up to 2.9 degrees.
Climate Central's findings, which utilize peer-reviewed sea level rise projections and local elevation models, present visual representations that vividly depict the stark difference between the current world and the potential future with higher sea levels if the planet warms to 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The image depicts the potential impact of carbon emissions reductions on the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, with a 1.5°C global warming scenario. It illustrates the projected future sea levels at the iconic structure, emphasizing the significant influence of human-caused global warming. The choices we make regarding climate and energy in the next few decades will play a crucial role in determining the outcome. However, accurately predicting the timing of the rise in sea levels presents a considerable challenge, as these changes may unfold over hundreds of years.
Climate Central
A photo illustration of the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, United Arab Emirates depicts the potential future impact of human-caused global warming on sea levels. These projections show two different scenarios based on current emissions levels, with the timing of the rise in sea levels expected to take hundreds of years to fully materialize. The choices made in climate and energy policies in the coming decades will play a crucial role in determining the ultimate outcome.
Climate Central
Photo illustrations from Climate Central
What sea-level rise could look like at the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
A photograph of Fortaleza del Real Felipe in Lima, Peru shows the potential impact of sharply reducing carbon pollution to limit global warming to 1.5°C. These projections depict future sea levels at the site due to human-caused global warming under two scenarios. Climate and energy decisions in the coming decades will influence the outcome, but it is challenging to predict the timing of the rise: it may take hundreds of years for these sea levels to fully manifest.
Sabelle Falcon/Climate Central
A photo illustration of the Fortaleza del Real Felipe in Lima, Peru, if we keep our current carbon path (3°C global warming).
These photo illustrations depict the potential impact of human-caused global warming on future sea levels at Fortaleza del Real Felipe in Lima, Peru. The timing of the rise is uncertain, and may take hundreds of years to fully materialize. The climate and energy decisions made in the next few decades will play a crucial role in determining the outcome. - Sabelle Falcon/Climate Central
Sabelle Falcon/Climate Central
What sea-level rise could look like at the Fortaleza del Real Felipe in Lima, Peru.
Benjamin Strauss, Chief Scientist and CEO of Climate Central, stated that decisions made at COP28 will have a significant impact on the long-term future of coastal cities, such as Dubai.
According to climate scientists, the world is currently around 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels and is projected to surpass 1.5 degrees of warming in the near future, which is considered a critical threshold for human and ecosystem adaptation.
In 2015, at COP21 in Paris, more than 190 countries approved the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, but preferably to 1.5 degrees.
A photo illustration of the Durban City Hall in Durban, South Africa shows the projected future sea levels caused by human-caused global warming under two different scenarios. The timing of the rise is difficult to project, with potential sea level changes taking hundreds of years to be fully realized. These climate and energy choices in the coming decades could have a significant impact on the potential outcome. Data source: SIO/NOAA/U.S. Navy/NGA/GEBCO/Climate Central.
A photo illustration of Durban City Hall in Durban, South Africa, if we keep our current carbon path (3°C global warming)
The photo illustrations depict the projected future sea levels at Durban City Hall in South Africa, as a result of human-caused global warming. Two different scenarios are presented, indicating that climate and energy decisions in the near future will determine the outcome. However, it is challenging to predict the exact timing of the rise, as it may take hundreds of years for these sea levels to be fully realized. The data source for these illustrations is SIO/NOAA/U.S. Navy/NGA/GEBCO/Climate Central.
Data SIO/NOAA/U.S. Navy/NGA/GEBCO/Climate Central
What sea-level rise could look like at the Durban City Hall in Durban, South Africa.
Coastal communities, low-lying countries, and small island states worldwide could become uninhabitable if the current trajectory of up to 2.9 degrees continues. According to Strauss, the survival of these areas and their cultural heritage hinges on government and industry leaders' ability to swiftly and significantly reduce carbon pollution to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The World Meteorological Organization released a report on Thursday stating that 2023 is on track to become the hottest year on record. Global monthly temperatures set new records by significant margins from June to October, and ocean temperatures also reached unprecedented highs.
A photo of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Vastu Sangrahalaya in Mumbai, India, depicting the potential impact of sharply reducing carbon pollution to limit global warming to 1.5°C. These images illustrate projected future sea levels at the museum due to human-caused global warming under two different scenarios. While climate and energy decisions in the next few decades will play a crucial role, the exact timing of sea level rise is uncertain and may take hundreds of years to fully manifest. (Image: Sailko/Climate Central)
A photo illustration of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Vastu Sangrahalaya in Mumbai, India, if we keep our current carbon path (3°C global warming).
The photo illustrations at Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Vastu Sangrahalaya in Mumbai, India depict potential future sea levels caused by human-induced global warming under two scenarios. The timing of the rise is uncertain, and it may take hundreds of years to fully materialize, depending on climate and energy decisions in the coming decades. (Photo credit: Sailko/Climate Central)
Sailko/Climate Central
What sea-level rise could look like at Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Vastu Sangrahalaya in Mumbai, India.
The scorching global temperatures are leading to rapid melting of glaciers and ice sheets, resulting in a substantial increase in the Earth's oceans. Even Antarctica, the most remote continent on Earth, is experiencing unprecedented melting. The melting of certain large glaciers is now likely inevitable and could have catastrophic implications for global sea level rise.
According to Climate Central, approximately 385 million people currently reside in regions that will eventually be submerged by ocean water at high tide, even if pollution that contributes to global warming is significantly reduced.
If the warming is restricted to 1.5 degrees, approximately 510 million people living in coastal areas will still be impacted by sea level rise. However, if the temperature exceeds 3 degrees, the study suggests that the high-tide line could encroach on land inhabited by over 800 million people.
If we sharply reduce carbon pollution, a photo illustration of Christiansborg Palace in Copenhagen, Denmark shows the potential impact of achieving 1.5°C global warming. The projected future sea levels at Christiansborg Palace due to human-caused global warming are displayed under two scenarios. Climate and energy choices in the near future will play a significant role, although the timing of the rise is uncertain, with these sea levels potentially taking hundreds of years to fully materialize. (Source: TerraMetrics/Climate Central)
A photo illustration of Christiansborg Palace in Copenhagen, Denmark, if we keep our current carbon path (3°C global warming).
The photo illustrations depict the potential future rise of sea levels at Christiansborg Palace in Copenhagen, Denmark, as a result of human-induced global warming under two different scenarios. The choices made in climate and energy policies in the next few decades could determine the outcome, but predicting the exact timing of the rise is challenging: it may take hundreds of years for these sea levels to materialize completely.
TerraMetrics/Climate Central
What sea-level rise could look like at the Christiansborg Palace in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Scientists warn that even a fraction of a degree of warming can significantly worsen the consequences of climate change, and while some scenarios may seem distant, global leaders will gather at COP28 to address the urgency of ramping down planet-warming fossil fuels to prevent a potentially underwater future. This year's climate talks will also introduce a new scorecard for countries to negotiate with, revealing just how off-track they are on their climate targets and emphasizing the rapidly diminishing window to reduce climate pollution.
