The 2024 Election: A Battle on All Fronts

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Elections are always complex, with various issues influencing the outcome and ultimately shaping the direction of the country for all. Even the smallest issue this week could have a significant impact on the result.

Trump trials

In general, recent polls indicate that a larger number of individuals lean towards Democrats on the issues of abortion and climate change, while more people align with Republicans on matters concerning the economy and immigration. These topics are all very relevant this week. Additionally, the ongoing legal issues within former President Donald Trump's sphere remain significant on a weekly basis.

The leading candidate in the GOP primary is currently facing criminal charges in four different locations - New York, Washington, DC, Georgia and Florida. Several polls indicate that a guilty verdict could impact the votes for Trump, causing a small but potentially influential group of people to reconsider their support.

His legal tactic revolves around postponing the trials and focusing on winning the election. So far, this strategy appears to be working in his favor.

Former President Donald Trump leaves after speaking at a campaign rally in Claremont, New Hampshire, on November 11, 2023.

Joseph Prezioso/AFP/Getty Images

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Judge Tanya Chutkan, who is presiding over the federal case related to the 2020 election interference, has aimed for an early March trial start date, coinciding with but unrelated to the primaries across the country. However, she had to pause proceedings this week as appeals courts and the US Supreme Court consider Trump's claim of immunity from prosecution.

Potential delays in the trial in Washington, DC, may have implications for other proceedings and could impact President Joe Biden's ability to argue that Trump poses a threat to democracy.

By now, Americans should be familiar with Trump, the previous president who attempted to cling to power after losing the 2020 election. They must carefully weigh whether his recent statements about aspiring to be a "dictator for a day," if elected in 2024, are intended as jokes. There is ample opportunity to inform themselves about his proposed reforms to significantly alter the government's composition, weaponize the Justice Department against his adversaries, and dismantle the US regulatory framework.

Biden impeachment inquiry

Republicans have so far failed, despite doggedly trying, to uncover some kind of malfeasance to tie Biden to his son Hunters foreign income or tax avoidance.

The search for grounds to impeach President Biden will not cease anytime soon, as House Republicans have voted to formalize their impeachment inquiry. They will now ramp up their use of subpoena power in an effort to find something to use against him. It remains to be seen whether this will further lower Biden's approval rating, or that of House Republicans. This pursuit against Biden has been ongoing since his time as Vice President, sparked by allegations stemming from a call made by then-President Trump to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The irony of Republicans attempting to impeach Biden in a similar manner to how Trump was impeached should not be lost on anyone.

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Immigration

The border situation has been framed as an invasion by the Republicans, while Democratic mayors in major cities are expressing frustration with the White House over the uncoordinated transportation of migrants into their communities. This lack of planning has left them without adequate resources for housing, feeding, and providing legal employment opportunities for the migrants. Border communities have officially declared the issue as a humanitarian crisis.

Migrants cross a razor wire fence near a border wall on the banks of the Rio Grande, as seen from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on September 18.

Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters

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Instead of addressing the issue with thorough new laws, there is much blaming and dishonesty in the Biden administration and on Capitol Hill. The upcoming turning point on a national level will be when House Republicans use Ukraine funding as a bargaining chip to push for a return to Trump-era border policies and to restrict entry of migrants and asylum-seekers into the country.

Biden is eager to maintain funding for Ukraine, and it appears that he may be willing to make some concessions, although a resolution will likely be postponed until after the holidays. Any actions Biden takes to appease Republicans will likely upset progressives in his party who are opposed to cracking down on migration.

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Israel

Biden is under increasing pressure from the left regarding US support for Israel, leading to a division within the party and the risk of alienating young voters and voters of color, who are crucial for Democratic election victories.

One recent display of this dissatisfaction was when a Democratic state representative from Delaware, who is Muslim, interrupted Vice President Kamala Harris at a holiday party at her Naval Observatory residence.

This week's CNN poll in Michigan, a state with a significant Muslim population, added to Democrats' concerns as it showed registered voters currently favoring Trump over Biden. Meanwhile, Biden's administration has started exerting more pressure on Israel's right-wing government to ease its operations in the badly affected Gaza, in the hope of de-escalating the situation.

The rifts over Israel do not adhere to political party boundaries. The majority of Jewish Americans align themselves with the Democrats, as do most Muslim Americans. However, the issue is becoming more polarized.

Concerns about antisemitism and Islamophobia that have caused tensions on college campuses made their way to Washington last week. This was highlighted by compelling testimony from college presidents of prestigious institutions such as Harvard, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and the University of Pennsylvania. Republicans, in particular, latched onto their remarks about antisemitism.

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Shutdown

The deadlock over government spending has led to the likelihood of a long-anticipated government shutdown at the start of 2024, with the possibility of it occurring in multiple stages.

Uncertainty remains about the possibility of a shutdown, its potential duration, and the impact it could have on the daily lives of Americans.

Meanwhile, House Republicans are gearing up to prioritize the issue of government spending. This issue is expected to become increasingly significant in the coming year, with Democrats seeking to enhance the role of government in improving the nation, while Republicans aim to reduce the size of government in the belief that doing so will lead to a better country.

Abortion

The possibility of the two sides reaching a consensus on a nationwide abortion rights policy in the near future is extremely low. However, abortion may feature prominently in the upcoming elections in crucial states, and the US Supreme Court will once again be deliberating on abortion policy (particularly, access to the commonly utilized abortion medication mifepristone) before Election Day.

In the same way Republicans will focus on immigration, Democrats will make abortion access a key part of their pitch to voters next year.

Economy

Voters consistently prioritize the economy as one of their top concerns. Following aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation, the situation has now stabilized. This week, there is discussion among Fed officials about implementing interest rate cuts instead of further hikes.

As of now, Biden has a convincing argument to make concerning a thriving economy with remarkably low unemployment rates. The stock market reached another peak this week. However, he is not receiving any recognition for the economy in polls. Although prices are not increasing as rapidly as before, polling data indicates that a large majority of the population feels uneasy about the current state of affairs.

The perception of rising crime in cities only adds to the sense of unease. Despite a significant drop from historic highs, the average gasoline price remains about a dollar higher per gallon than when Biden assumed office. This poses a difficult and contradictory situation for Democrats like Biden, who advocate for action against climate change and a shift away from fossil fuels, yet find their political success potentially linked to reducing gas prices.

Everything else

Just because these are the issues were talking about this week doesnt mean all of them will be top of mind in November 2024.

News will occur. The climate will continue to change. Lawmakers will react. It will all be added into the mixture.