Strategic Shift: Mexico's Crackdown on Migrants Bolsters President López Obrador's Negotiating Power with Washington

The Biden administration faced a challenge last month as a surge of migrants overwhelmed the US southern border. In response, top US immigration authorities held an emergency meeting in Mexico. During the meeting, both American and Mexican officials developed a 15-point plan to address the situation. The plan mainly consisted of instructions for the Mexican government, with an emphasis on conducting more expensive deportations of migrants who had gathered on the Mexican side of the border. This measure was intended to discourage disorderly border crossings.

The latest measures in Mexico address the issue of migrants traveling north on railcars, contributing to a series of policy changes aimed at reducing the ongoing migration concerns in Washington. Analysts in both countries recognize a pragmatic agreement: Mexico is taking on more responsibility for US immigration strategy, which has led to the Biden administration granting some flexibility to Mexico's controversial yet widely supported leader.

According to Andrew Selee, the president of the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute, "Mexico holds significant influence in its relationship with the US, particularly in regards to migration."

Members of the Mexican National Guard stand on the border between Mexico and Guatemala to prevent the crossing of migrant caravans on October 21, 2022.

Mexico and the US, with close to 2,000 miles of shared land border and a deep history of economic exchange, have always had interconnected immigration policies that have adapted to changing patterns of international migration. In 2001, George W. Bush, during his first trip as president, visited the ranch of Mexican leader Vicente Fox to initiate discussions about a new era of collaboration relating to border issues such as trade, drugs, and the movement of undocumented Mexicans heading northwards - which constituted a significant portion of border-crossers at the time.

Due to escalating violence and dire economic circumstances, mass migration from Central America and the Caribbean to the US has overwhelmed the country's legal immigration system. As a result, the Mexican territory between the two regions has effectively functioned as a crucial "buffer state," according to Maureen Meyer from the Washington Office on Latin America. Meyer stated that the southern border of Mexico essentially served as the southern border of the US.

Emergency personnel are seen on the scene in Pijijiapan, Chiapas, Mexico on October 1, 2023, after a truck accident resulted in the tragic loss of several Cuban migrants. This image, captured from a handout video, has been partially obscured by CNN in order to mitigate its graphic content.

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Mexico has faced pressure from multiple US administrations, leading it to consistently deploy resources to its border with Guatemala over the past decade. The aim has been to establish official migration routes and detain a significant number of migrants at newly established checkpoints as they travel northward. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a leftist leader who initially opposed assisting the US with migration matters during his campaign in 2018, now spearheads Mexico's latest efforts to coordinate immigration issues with the US.

Crossing another line in immigration enforcement

In response to the potential imposition of detrimental tariffs by former President Donald Trump, López Obrador made the decision in 2019 to permit asylum seekers to remain in Mexico while their claims are processed, which sparked outrage among activists who argued that it exposed migrants to hazardous living conditions.

During the pandemic, the US implemented Title 42 to reject numerous asylum seekers at the border. As a result, López Obrador made an unexpected decision to accept many of these migrants, contradicting Mexico's previous stance and placing strain on its border cities. Even after the US discontinued the use of Title 42 in May, López Obrador persisted in allowing the return of asylum seekers on "humanitarian grounds." According to Meyer, these recent actions represent a significant escalation as they not only restrict people from entering the United States but also go beyond the typical enforcement role.

"It is actually providing the opportunity for individuals who have been deported from the United States to choose between remaining in Mexico or, in this particular scenario, potentially facilitating their active repatriation to their respective home nations on behalf of the United States," she stated.

On September 30, 2023, migrants, who had been left stranded near Villa Ahumada the day before, embarked on their journey to seek asylum in the United States. They crossed the Rio Bravo river, visible from Ciudad Juarez in Mexico. (Photo: Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)

The number of illegal border crossings reached a peak for the year, with more than 200,000 apprehensions in September.

Information regarding the deportation plan, which was announced last month, has been scarce. During a press conference held in Washington on Friday, Mexican Foreign Secretary Alicia Bárcena revealed that Mexican authorities were conducting six flights per week to repatriate migrants to Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Bárcena also mentioned that officials were considering the potential expansion of these returns to Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia.

The location and commencement of the deportation flights were ambiguous. Additionally, it was uncertain whether the migrants being returned had previously been deported from the US or if they had pending asylum claims. Stakeholders in Mexico informed CNN last week that there seemed to be no noticeable alteration in the rate of repatriation flights in the northern part of the country. The spokesperson for Mexico's federal immigration agency refused to disclose further information regarding the deportations.

However, the recent announcement may have already dissuaded migrants from crossing into the US without the necessary appointment to file for asylum. Following the meeting, there has been a reported 30% decrease in the number of migrants encountered by border authorities near El Paso, Texas, over the weekend. Additionally, last Wednesday, López Obrador revealed plans for a forthcoming summit with officials from various Latin American and Caribbean countries that are experiencing significant migration from their populations. Furthermore, Mexico has agreed to exert pressure on countries such as Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba, which have limited diplomatic relations with the US, to accept their citizens who have been deported at the border.

An uptick in shuttle diplomacy

The recent collaboration between the two nations has involved a hectic schedule of shuttle diplomacy. Last week, Bárcena held meetings in Washington with Senate leaders and Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, the homeland security advisor to President Biden. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, along with other cabinet secretaries, is expected to visit Mexico this week and meet with López Obrador.

For Mexican negotiators, their increased responsibilities often depend on a commitment from the US to expand legal avenues for migrants to enter the country. This includes initiatives such as temporary work visas and an enhanced humanitarian parole program. The Biden administration claims that this program has enabled tens of thousands of Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans who meet specific criteria (including having a local sponsor in the US) to travel to the country and obtain work authorization.

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Last month, in anticipation of the news regarding Mexican deportations, the foreign minister of Mexico revealed in an interview with Bloomberg that the United States and Mexico were close to reaching an agreement with the United Nations. The aim was to pre-screen a large number of migrants in Mexico for potential entry into the US through parole programs. The US has previously established similar processing centers in Colombia, Costa Rica, and Guatemala.

A spokesperson from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees informed CNN that the organization is in regular communication with both US and Mexican authorities, discussing ways to offer assistance for potential future initiatives.

Politically for the Mexican government, demonstrating their commitment to migrant welfare and legal opportunities is imperative in order to justify any intensified enforcement actions. This is particularly crucial given the country's historical patterns of migration towards the United States, as highlighted by Selee.

A free hand for Lopez Obrador?

However, there are analysts who believe that there is a more cynical motive behind the cooperation. They argue that the Biden administration has chosen to ignore certain aspects of López Obrador's agenda, which would have normally received criticism. "López Obrador quickly realized that by agreeing to support Biden, he would gain political leverage, ensuring that the US pressure on various bilateral or Mexican domestic policy issues would be limited," explained Arturo Sarukhán, a former Mexican ambassador to Washington who has been critical of the current administration.

Critics argue that López Obrador's positions demonstrate a regression in democracy. This includes his proposed reform of the independent election authority, frequent critiques of the judiciary and press, and the military's increasing control over policing and transportation. Earlier this year, the election reform was implemented but subsequently halted by the Mexican Supreme Court. This reform has weakened the independence of the election authority by reducing its personnel and limiting its autonomy leading up to the upcoming presidential election.

Tens of thousands of Mexicans rallied in the capital to protest against the policy, marking the largest opposition demonstration since López Obrador assumed presidency. Detractors condemned it as a perilous undermining of democratic principles. However, the Biden administration in Washington remained surprisingly restrained. In an official statement after the February protests, Ned Price, a senior advisor to Blinken, characterized it as "a significant discourse on electoral reforms and the autonomy of electoral and judicial institutions that exemplify Mexico's thriving democracy."

"We hold deep respect for the sovereignty of Mexico. We firmly believe in the importance of a well-equipped and autonomous electoral system, along with the utmost regard for judicial independence, as fundamental pillars that contribute to the nurturing of a thriving democracy," expressed Price.

Sarukhán commented that if Mexico's influence on its association with the US were diminished, "I am of the opinion that we would witness heightened public pressure coming forth from the State Department and the White House, regarding the concerning trend of democratic erosion currently being observed in Mexico."

He added that the United States should prioritize its investment in Mexico's democratic strength. Otherwise, there is a risk of someone in Washington eventually questioning, "Who is responsible for losing Mexico and what led to it?"