Stakes are high for Haley and DeSantis at Wednesday night's debate

Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, Republican rivals in the 2024 campaign, clashed in the first head-to-head debate on Wednesday, each vying for the critical moment that could establish them as the sole viable challenger to Donald Trump. With five days left before the Iowa caucuses, the CNN debate is their last opportunity to alter the landscape before the landmark election, where the former president is the frontrunner for his third consecutive GOP nomination.

Former President Donald Trump, left, andRepublican Presidential Candidate Nikki Haley.

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Trump turns ire on Haley as she builds momentum

In a break from political tradition, Trump is boycotting the event and focusing on legal battles instead of the usual campaign trail. This was evident when he appeared in a Washington, DC, appeals court to argue for presidential immunity in his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, highlighting the high stakes of the upcoming 2024 election and hinting at his vision of a presidency with unchecked power.

The ex-president, still the dominant figure in the GOP, may face a true primary test only if all Republican opposition is united behind a single candidate. If this doesn't happen soon, the hopes of those looking for an alternative could be dashed, as was the case when Trump rose to power in 2016. Haley has narrowed the gap with Trump in New Hampshire, but he still leads in the states primary, just a week after Iowa. The upcoming debate could be an important moment, as voters have yet to give their verdicts. Despite this, Trump's dominant position shows that neither Haley nor DeSantis has managed to answer the key question of the campaign: how to address his 91 criminal charges and assault on American democracy without alienating sympathetic GOP voters. This reflects the party's continued loyalty to Trump and the widespread belief in his false claims of voter fraud and political persecution.

How Haley and DeSantis might attack one another

Both Haley and DeSantis have presented unique ideas for the future of the party and comprehensive plans for a potential presidency. Governor DeSantis has pledged to implement a more efficient and disciplined version of Trump's right-wing populism compared to the former president's first term.

By taking a tough stance on immigration and culture war issues and engaging in conflicts with Washington "elites," DeSantis presents himself as the sole major candidate who genuinely hears conservative voters' concerns about the political establishment, following his 99 county tour of Iowa. "Trump is pushing for his own agenda. Haley is advocating for her donors' interests. I am advocating for your interests," DeSantis declared in a CNN town hall last week in Iowa.

On Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020, a woman is pictured filling out her ballot for the Democratic presidential primary elections at the Sleepy Hollow Elementary School polling location in Arlington, Virginia. This image was captured by Samuel Corum/Getty Images.

Explanation of the 2024 US Presidential Primaries

Haley is proposing a return to a more traditional form of conservatism that predates the Trump administration. She is advocating for an internationalist foreign policy similar to Ronald Reagan's and is criticizing both Republicans and Democrats for contributing to the national debt. Additionally, she aims to appeal to voters who may not typically align with the Republican party. Recent polls suggest that she may have a stronger chance of defeating President Joe Biden compared to other GOP candidates. Haley emphasized the need for a new generational leader during a town hall meeting in Iowa, stressing the importance of leaving negativity and baggage in the past and focusing on solutions for the future.

Two political careers hanging in the balance

Both Haley and DeSantis have carefully navigated Trump's legal troubles. Haley offers a departure from the "turmoil" he creates - a subtle appeal to Republican voters who are tired of the former president's dramatic behavior, controversies, and legal challenges. DeSantis vows to be a more effective enforcer of "Make America Great Again" policies. However, Trump's strong lead in most polls of the Republican race suggests that grassroots GOP voters may not be ready to move on, even though Trump would be a risky candidate given his tendency to alienate more moderate voters in crucial swing states.

The debate on Wednesday marks a significant turning point for both Haley and DeSantis. With only two candidates on stage for the first time in the GOP race, this showdown has the potential to reveal strengths and weaknesses not previously seen in the multi-candidate debates.

Haley is currently experiencing a surge in momentum and is aiming for a strong performance on Monday to propel her into the New Hampshire primary, which is her best opportunity to secure a win and challenge Trump. As the former US ambassador to the UN, she is entering the debate following a poll by CNN that shows her rising popularity in the Granite State. This puts pressure on former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to withdraw from the race, as he is also competing for the same independent and undeclared voters as Haley and could hinder her chances of defeating Trump.

On December 17, 2023, in Reno, Nevada, former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is running for the Republican Presidential nominee in the 2024 election, is seen during a campaign rally at the Reno-Sparks Convention Center. The photo was taken by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images.

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Trumps rivals still havent figured out how to talk about January 6

New Hampshire's GOP Governor Chris Sununu, a supporter of Haley and advocate for a single anti-Trump candidate, has been vocal in calling for Christie to drop out. However, Christie's team strongly pushed back against Sununu's claim that discussions about dropping out had taken place. Christie, once a Trump supporter, has distanced himself from the former president and argues that he is the only prominent figure willing to openly criticize him. He expressed willingness to step aside for a candidate truly running against Trump, accusing Haley of seeking the vice presidency and eyeing the 2028 presidential campaign.

As evidence of Haley's increasing influence, Trump has escalated his attacks on her, accusing her of opposing his travel ban from Muslim-majority countries and criticizing her stance on immigration during his presidency.

Despite some missteps, including her failure to name slavery as the cause of the Civil War in her first event after a Christmas break, Haley's poll numbers have risen following strong debate performances. However, to position herself as the premier anti-Trump candidate, she will need to elevate her campaign on Wednesday night.

While Haley has improved her political reputation during the campaign, DeSantis has experienced a challenging start to his first national spotlight. Despite his reelection victory in 2022 and the implementation of tough policies, positioning him as a potential heir to Trump, DeSantis has faced challenges with perceptions of awkwardness on the stump. His national campaign prospects may have narrowed, requiring an all-or-nothing stand in Iowa to avoid the same fate as other Florida politicians who faltered under Trump's assault in 2016.

DeSantis is expected to capitalize on several recent gaffes made by Haley, including her controversial comment about slavery and a questionable quip made to an audience in New Hampshire. There is enormous pressure on him to present a more multi-dimensional and appealing persona on stage, especially after struggling in previous debates.

The Florida governor appears to be a better match for Iowa compared to Haley, as he has the ability to appeal to evangelicals, a significant voting bloc in the state, and Trump supporters who appreciate the ex-president's hard-right policies but are critical of his lack of discipline. Anything less than a strong second place finish in Iowa would cast doubt on the future of his campaign.

DeSantis's departure or Haley's unexpected disappearance could lead to the long-awaited showdown that critics of the former president have been hoping for. However, the current campaign indicates that a large number of Republican voters are not looking for a return to the pre-Trump era or a younger alternative. They want Trump.

This is why the former president, who will be appearing at a Fox News town hall in Des Moines on Wednesday evening, is optimistic that he can once again avoid engaging in a debate with his opponents.