Showdown Looms as House Republicans Challenge Biden Amid Impending Government Shutdown

Republicans are on the verge of fulfilling the core objective of their majority in the House - carrying out Donald Trump's quest for retribution.

On Thursday, Trump's dedicated allies will officially commence an impeachment inquiry against Joe Biden, a move that Trump's followers have fervently clamored for ever since the incumbent president assumed office, still stinging from his own dual impeachments.

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With only three days left to reach a spending deal and keep the government operating, the first hearing is currently underway. Instead of working towards resolving the crisis, uncompromising House Republicans are leading the country toward a shutdown that was advocated by Trump on social media, claiming it will harm Biden, his potential opponent in the upcoming general election.

These two confrontations, along with the resurgence of Trump's influence within the House, have the potential to determine the destiny of the Republican House majority, which was narrowly secured in the previous year's midterm elections.

The House Oversight Committee's impeachment inquiry is being weakened by the GOP's lack of evidence regarding the president's alleged corrupt benefit from his son Hunter's business dealings, despite the existence of a clear conflict of interest.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, at left, and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, at right

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The GOP divide intensifies as McConnell and McCarthy's rift deepens, fueling concerns of a potential shutdown. While embarking on a last-resort constitutional procedure to remove the president, House Republican leaders are concurrently showcasing their incompetence in fulfilling fundamental responsibilities such as enacting legislation and effectively governing.

Extremist lawmakers are refusing to pass a short-term funding bill to keep the government open, demanding additional spending cuts beyond what Speaker Kevin McCarthy agreed upon with Biden earlier this year. This has caused frustration among some Republicans in the Senate. There are also some of Trump's supporters who want to terminate US aid to Ukraine, which would greatly weaken their fight for survival following a Russian-ordered invasion. Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom Trump has called a "genius," is behind this invasion. The Senate's bipartisan stopgap bill, which maintains current funding for 45 days and includes $6 billion for Ukraine, has no chance of being approved by the House.

The disagreement on Capitol Hill is also tied to the intensifying clash between Biden and Trump in the upcoming general election. This rivalry reached new heights this week when both candidates traveled to Michigan to leverage an autoworkers strike in an attempt to gain an advantage in this crucial swing state. Trump's speech on the matter outside Detroit on Wednesday night was also intended to divert attention from the second Republican presidential debate in California, which he boycotted. Trump justified his absence by claiming that he is so far ahead in the polls that it is not worth his time.

Two crisis springing from common causes

Impeachment and the threat of a government shutdown arise from the same underlying causes - the strong allegiance of the Republican House majority to Trump and his influence in steering the party towards his own goals. Trump, in an effort to escape blame for a potential shutdown starting after midnight on Saturday, believes that Biden will be held responsible instead of the GOP majority. Additionally, the push for impeachment, which has been demanded by Trump's followers since Biden took office, appears to be partly motivated by a desire for retribution against Trump's previous impeachments and an attempt to divert attention from his upcoming criminal trials by tarnishing Biden's reputation during his reelection campaign.

Republicans' narrow advantage in the House reflects the delicate power dynamics behind each crisis. Last November, voters made it clear that they were hesitant to grant full authority to a party dominated by Trump's extremism, dampening hopes of a red wave for the GOP. Paradoxically, this slim majority has given extreme GOP members more influence, leaving McCarthy, the House Speaker, in a weak position. His inability to assert his authority is evident in his failure to pass essential bills and his need to constantly appease the far-right faction of his party. Consequently, McCarthy's precarious hold on power makes him vulnerable to potential ousting, severely limiting his ability to navigate political challenges.

This is where the process of impeachment comes into play. The initiation of the investigation was widely interpreted as a way to appease those who oppose McCarthy within the party, especially those with extreme views. It was also possibly an attempt to gain some flexibility in the ongoing budgetary dispute that could potentially lead to a government shutdown. However, if that was the intention, it failed miserably. Certain House Republicans are now outright refusing to vote for any temporary spending extension that is expected to be proposed by the Senate. Additionally, some are opposing the idea of passing a short-term extension altogether. Their reasoning is that doing so would diminish their chances of successfully implementing a comprehensive long-term package that includes significant reductions in spending. Such a package would essentially undermine the agreement McCarthy made with Biden earlier this year.

McCarthy will not be able to escape his moment of fate

While it may not happen immediately, it is inevitable that McCarthy will eventually have to confront the extremist right, even though he is extremely reluctant to do so. This clash will pose a significant risk for him, as it puts his coveted position as speaker of the house on the line.

There is a chance for McCarthy to evade these issues if the impeachment investigation uncovers concrete evidence that Biden personally benefited from his son's apparent conflicts of interest and alleged manipulation of influence in Ukraine and China during his time as vice president. However, considering the limited evidence presented thus far, it is unlikely that a strong case for impeachment will be established anytime soon. Therefore, it is difficult to envision McCarthy, in his vulnerable position, choosing to end the impeachment inquiry due to lack of evidence.

On spending, McCarthy still appears to lack the votes necessary to prevent a government shutdown. He may actually welcome the potential spectacle and blame associated with such an outcome, as it could put pressure on his majority and encourage them to support a final plan. With the deadline approaching, he is attempting a bold move by including border security funding in a short-term spending fix, hoping to create divisions among the hardliners in his party. "I don't understand why someone would choose to stand with President Biden in keeping an open border rather than keeping the government open," said the speaker on Wednesday. McCarthy, who hails from California, has also mentioned the negative impact of previous shutdowns on the Republicans. However, it seems that his most rebellious members are not paying attention.

A general view of the U.S. Capitol Building, in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, September 19, 2023.

Graeme Sloan/Sipa USA/AP

Potential Impact of Government Shutdown on Americans

A government shutdown can have significant consequences for the American population. Additionally, if an impeachment is perceived as unwarranted, it could create future challenges for Republicans. While the hardline faction holds considerable sway within the party, the path to achieving a Republican majority in the 2022 midterm elections involved winning over districts that voted for Biden in 2020. If Republicans alienate these voters, their majority could be at risk in November 2024. As a result, there have been discussions about the possibility of moderate Republicans aligning with Democrats to propose a temporary funding solution. This explains why Rep. Mike Lawler of New York, a vulnerable GOP moderate, recently referred to his party as a "clown show."

However, there is a distinction between considering breaking with a popular speaker who has support from many members and actually taking action. If a bipartisan plan is put forward to prevent a shutdown, it is highly likely that rebellious Republicans would immediately seek to remove McCarthy as the speaker.

Democrats are already speaking as though a shutdown has occurred, aiming to create a story that portrays Republicans as disregarding voter priorities in order to please Trump, and therefore, they are not fit to govern responsibly.

"We entered the 118th Congress amidst chaos, and unfortunately, that chaos continues," remarked Democratic Representative Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts in an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper on Wednesday. Meanwhile, President Biden expressed his hope that a government shutdown would be avoided while highlighting the potential consequences for vital scientific and healthcare work, including cancer research, if federal agencies were to run out of funding. "Therefore, it is essential for our Republican colleagues in the House of Representatives to fulfill their responsibility to fund the government," he stated.

The longer the government remains shuttered without a resolution, the more severe the ramifications will become. This could result in significant hardships for those dependent on the government, including unpaid troops, air traffic controllers, border patrol officers, and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) workers who continue to carry out their duties without receiving wages. A prolonged deadlock has the potential to harm an economy that has shown resilience in the face of numerous challenges stemming from the pandemic, despite the fact that not all Americans have yet experienced its recovery.

The House Administration Committee stated on Wednesday that despite Republican opposition, impeachments will proceed as they are deemed "essential."