The House Republican Party is descending further into disarray as it engages in a conflict over its next speaker, seemingly unaware of the negative message of dysfunction it is projecting amidst escalating global crises.
On Wednesday, GOP lawmakers chose Steve Scalise as their candidate for the position, which ranks second in the line of presidential succession. However, by nightfall, it became evident that the Louisiana Republican and current majority leader was facing difficulties in garnering the necessary votes for a successful gavel acquisition through a floor vote.
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'We have a lot of work to do': Scalise speaks after nomination for House speaker
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- Source:
CNN
Despite their hope to hold a vote on the speakership in the full chamber on Thursday, party leaders are considering alternative options in the event that Scalise does not garner enough support to secure the position. A Republican member expressed skepticism, stating that Scalise is far from reaching the required tally of 217 to become speaker. Furthermore, there are doubts about Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan's ability to unite the party and claim the top job, even though he was the runner-up in Wednesday's closed-door election. As a result, there could potentially be an opportunity for a compromise candidate to emerge.
The House's deteriorating situation is a consequence of the recent removal of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as eight Republicans joined forces with Democrats to oust him.
On paper, Scalise is on the verge of becoming the most influential Republican in Washington. However, in practice, he faces the possibility of undermining his potential House speakership from the beginning by making compromises with extremists in order to secure the necessary votes.
If this sounds familiar, it's because Scalise is facing the same challenges that McCarthy encountered during the 15 rounds of voting that it took him to become speaker in January - which ultimately resulted in his removal from the position last week.
On Wednesday night, there were also indications of a heated competition for the role of majority leader, which could arise if Scalise becomes speaker. Reps. Tom Emmer of Minnesota, Kevin Hern of Oklahoma, and Byron Donalds of Florida are among the several candidates planning to run. However, some GOP leaders are frustrated that this maneuvering is diverting attention from the crucial task of finding a speaker.
After taking the lead with a vote of 113 to 99 on Wednesday, Scalise quickly realized the immense challenge ahead of him. Despite his progress, he still fell significantly short of the 217 votes required to secure the speakership on the House floor, representing a majority of the current House. Consequently, he now faces the daunting task of ensuring that he only loses a maximum of four votes from a GOP conference that has demonstrated an inclination for divisive tactics, political theatrics, and disorder, even surpassing its notorious reputation this week. Recognizing the uphill battle he faces, Scalise acknowledged the need for further efforts, labeling it a considerable understatement. Ahead of him are individual meetings with members who have refused to support his bid, yet struggle to articulate their specific desires and requirements. Their demands and attention-seeking behavior align with a GOP that has embraced the era of Donald Trump, wherein tearing down institutions seems to take precedence over effective governance.
Scalise worked overnight on Wednesday in an effort to gather enough support for his bid for the speakership. Despite Rep. Jim Jordan's promise to nominate Scalise, some members of the conference already intend to vote for Jordan. The party's turbulent week following McCarthy's removal highlights the challenges posed by the slim House majority gained in the midterm elections and the deep divisions within the GOP conference. This power vacuum is conveying a sense of incompetence to moderate voters in swing districts, which could jeopardize the party's hold on the House in 2024. Furthermore, the negligence displayed by leaving the House chamber empty during a time of global crisis, particularly after the Hamas incursion into Israel, is handing propaganda victories to opponents who argue that US influence is deteriorating.
Scalise faces a treacherous path to victory
According to Texas Rep. Michael McCaul, the chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, it is essential to have a speaker in order to effectively govern. Speaking with CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Wednesday, McCaul emphasized that playing games with this issue only strengthens our adversaries, such as Chairman Xi who criticizes the effectiveness of democracy. This situation is advantageous for leaders like Putin and the Ayatollah.
Scalise has overcome challenges in his life. He recovered from severe injuries sustained during a shooting at a congressional baseball practice in 2017, and he has recently received treatment for blood cancer. In order to secure a sustainable speakership, Scalise must avoid making the same mistakes as McCarthy, who struggled to find his own governing majority and eventually lost his position due to a concession he made to hardliners. Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz took advantage of this concession, resulting in McCarthy's ousting with the support of seven other Republicans.
Although Scalise is more conservative and popular among the GOP conference than McCarthy, and he is recognized as a successful fundraiser, it is challenging to see what he can offer to those who ultimately turned against McCarthy. McCarthy had only two non-negotiables - avoiding a US debt default and preventing a government shutdown. However, when these scenarios seemed imminent in recent months, McCarthy relied on Democratic votes to pass short-term solutions. Unfortunately, this strategy proved fatal to his speakership. Despite McCarthy's attempts to appease the far right by including conservative culture war priorities in appropriations bills, removing high-profile Democrats from key committees, and initiating an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, it made no difference in the end.
On Wednesday, several prominent rebel Republicans issued a warning, stating that they would not be voting for Scalise. They emphasized that he did not have enough votes to secure a victory. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia representative known for her strong support of Trump and her close political alliance with McCarthy, expressed concerns about Scalise's health. She noted that he was currently battling cancer, similar to her late father, and suggested that he should focus his efforts on overcoming this challenge.
South Carolina Representative Nancy Mace cited a previous speech made by Scalise to a White supremacist group, which caused her initial hesitation in supporting him. Scalise expressed remorse for his actions, but Mace still found it difficult to reconcile. This is in addition to Scalise facing criticism for being associated with the House GOP establishment, a group that is not widely admired in a party that values outsiders and insurgents. Representative Lauren Boebert of Colorado, a fellow hardliner, also expressed concerns about the leadership within the conference, which ultimately contributed to her decision not to support Scalise.
As the Wednesday evening progressed, senior Republicans grew more pessimistic about Scalise's chances of ever obtaining enough support to win the gavel. "He does not have a path to 217," remarked one anonymous top House Republican.
A backlash against hardliners
The situation is angering some mainstream Republicans who won crucial districts last year, giving the GOP majority, and whose reelection races will determine the fate of the House next year. New York Rep. Mike Lawler expressed his frustration, stating that a small group of members have repeatedly and blatantly disregarded the majority's wishes, resulting in the removal of our speaker with the support of 208 Democrats. Lawler demanded accountability for the extremists responsible for ousting McCarthy, emphasizing that simply rearranging positions will not solve the problem and that Kevin McCarthy was not the issue, calling this notion laughable.
The unpredictable nature of the Republican conference poses challenges for Scalise if he becomes the Speaker. Despite the expectations for significant spending cuts and legislative progress, Republicans lack the power to influence the Democratic-controlled Senate and White House. Laura Blessing, a senior fellow at Georgetown University's Government Affairs Institute, emphasizes that Scalise would encounter the same difficult obstacles that McCarthy failed to overcome, including the potential for a government shutdown in the coming month.
"The job didnt get easier because the person doing the job has changed," Blessing said. "The new speaker is going to inherit the inbox of the old speaker."
