Russia's Historic Ties Hang by a Thread: Is an Old Ally Breaking Away from the Kremlin's Influence?

The Russian government is displeased with the presence of US soldiers in Armenia for a peacekeeper training exercise. For years, Russia has been the only security provider for the former Soviet republic. The "Eagle Partner" exercise started on Monday and includes 85 US and 175 Armenian soldiers. Its objective is to equip the Armenians for future participation in international peacekeeping missions. This exercise, although small, is seen by Russia's foreign ministry as another unfriendly action by its longstanding ally.

Armenia recently provided humanitarian assistance to Ukraine for the first time and is now planning to ratify the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. This would require Armenia to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin if he were to visit the country, which Russia has historically considered part of its sphere of influence.

Armenia's exploration of new international alliances is driven by its dissatisfaction with Russia's perceived inability or unwillingness to protect it against aggression from neighboring Azerbaijan. This situation has also raised doubts about Russia's ability to maintain control over countries and conflicts across the former Soviet Union.

Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan asserted that his nation was now experiencing the negative consequences of relying heavily on Russia for its defense. In an interview with Italian newspaper La Repubblica, Pashinyan disclosed that nearly the entirety, 99.999%, of Armenia's security structure was interconnected with Russia. However, he observed that the current situation showcased Russia's own requirement for weapons, making it impossible for them to fulfill Armenia's defense requirements even if they desired to do so.

Since taking office in 2018 following Armenia's "Velvet Revolution," a widespread expression of frustration towards persistent corruption and cronyism in the former Soviet country, Pashinyan has witnessed escalating tensions with Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijani servicemen stand guard at a checkpoint at the Lachin corridor, which links the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region with Armenia.

Tofik Babayev/AFP/Getty Images

Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in the Caucasus Mountains, has been the primary source of conflict between neighboring countries, leading to two wars in the past thirty years. The most recent conflict occurred in 2020. While Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, the majority of its inhabitants are of Armenian descent.

During the 44-day conflict in autumn of 2020, Armenia's military weaknesses became apparent. Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey through the provision of drones and F-16 fighter jets, secured a decisive victory. They not only gained control of approximately one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh's territory but also launched attacks on Armenia itself.

Russia played a crucial role in concluding the war through ceasefire negotiations. As part of the agreement, approximately 2,000 Russian peacekeepers were deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh with the primary responsibility of safeguarding the Lachin corridor. This corridor serves as the vital link between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.

Regrettably, the presence of Russian peacekeepers has not deterred Azerbaijani forces from setting up a military checkpoint, thereby obstructing the flow of food imports to the enclave. While Azerbaijan denies imposing a blockade, Russia refutes allegations of inaction.

An unreliable partner

Armenia's government officials are left feeling betrayed due to Russia's lack of intervention or unwillingness to intervene, reveals Vahram Ter-Matevosyan, an associate professor of foreign policy at the American University of Armenia, situated in the capital, Yerevan.

"Armenia has dedicated three decades of its independence, or rather, two centuries of its recent history, firmly believing that Russia would fulfill its strategic obligations and protect Armenia against any foreign aggression. However, this expectation has not been met in 2020, 2021, or 2022," he informed CNN.

This loyalty has resulted in numerous self-imposed burdens. "Armenia has complied with nearly every request made by Russia throughout the past 30 years," Ter-Matevosyan stated, which includes abandoning its pursuit of European integration in 2013 after facing discontent from Moscow.

Analysts said the effectiveness of Russia's peacekeeping presence, which began after the war in 2020, has diminished over time.

Yerevan has grown accustomed to relying on Moscow for its security commitments through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance of post-Soviet states including Armenia. However, analysts note that in recent years, Yerevan has been disappointed by a series of unfulfilled promises from Russia.

Ter-Matevosyan stated that Russia did not fulfill its commitments to protect the Lachin corridor, nor did it provide the weapons that Armenia had purchased. Additionally, Russia did not effectively restrict Azerbaijan's aggressive expansion against Armenia. Consequently, Armenia was compelled to explore alternative options to enhance its security system.

Unintended consequences

Some analysts attribute Russias failure to uphold the terms of the ceasefire it brokered to its being distracted by its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Marie Dumoulin, the director of the Wider Europe program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, attributed the situation partly to Russia's attempt to maintain favorable alliances with both Armenia and Azerbaijan simultaneously. However, Dumoulin emphasized that this became an impossible endeavor due to Azerbaijan's ongoing aggression.

Dumoulin stated, "Following the 2020 war, Russia has been hesitant to take sides between Armenia and Azerbaijan, effectively leading them to favor Azerbaijan. It's a passive stance, but this passivity inherently takes a pro-Azerbaijan stance."

Dumoulin noted that the strengthening relationship between Moscow and Baku, influenced by the personal bond shared by Putin and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, might have been at the cost of Yerevan. "Pashinyan doesn't fit the profile of a leader that Putin favors. He rose to power through a revolution and emphasizes democratic values, reforms, and anti-corruption measures. Aliyev, on the other hand, aligns more with Putin's preferred type of leader," explained Dumoulin.

Putin held negotiations with Aliyev and Pashinyan in Moscow, Russia, in May 2023.

Relations between Putin and Pashinyan have been strained due to Armenia's efforts to join the ICC's Rome Statute. This move would provide Armenia with a fresh platform to address human rights issues concerning Azerbaijan. Although Armenia initially signed the statute in 1999, its Constitutional Court declared it unconstitutional. However, this decision was later reversed in March, allowing for potential ratification.

However, Armenia's efforts to strengthen its security in relation to Azerbaijan have unintentionally insulted Russia. This is because the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant against Putin for his alleged involvement in a plan to deport Ukrainian children.

Ter-Matevosyan stated, "The timing of this incident was unfortunate." He further argued that the Armenian government has not effectively communicated the two different intentions behind the ratification process of the Rome Statute to its Russian counterparts.

The relations have deteriorated further following the subsequent announcement of collaborative military training exercises with the US. According to Politico, Russia called the Armenian ambassador to Moscow for talks described as "difficult."

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, expressed concern that these exercises do not contribute to the enhancement of a trustworthy atmosphere in the region.

Ter-Matevosyan claimed that Russia's response revealed a sense of paranoia. He argued that the event, which involved approximately 260 individuals armed with rifles and lasted for nine to ten days in Armenia, did not warrant the level of significance given by Russia, considering its scale and scope. According to Ter-Matevosyan, similar exercises aimed at enhancing the interoperability of peacekeeping forces occur routinely worldwide.

"Russia overreacted by questioning the true objectives of the drills and seeing the hand of NATO behind it."

Diluting Russian influence

It remains uncertain whether Armenia's endeavors to establish new international alliances are driven solely by its aim to enhance its security or if these initiatives signify a larger shift towards the West. "Considering it is a small nation, making a complete turnaround and undertaking a major geopolitical leap is quite risky for Armenia. We are aware of the potential dangers involved," CNN was informed by Anna Ohanyan, a professor at Stonehill College in Massachusetts and an expert in Russian foreign policy.

Rather than seeking to cut ties with Russia entirely, Armenia is merely "diluting" its influence, Ohanyan said.

Azerbaijani servicemen stand guard at a checkpoint at the Lachin corridor, the Armenian-populated breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Tofik Babayev/AFP/Getty Images

Residents of Nagorno-Karabakh are living in fear of what the future holds as they face a blockade that has left them starving. The current measures being taken may seem small, but they have the potential to have long-lasting consequences for Armenia. Ohanyan believes that even if Putin were to change his policies and offer security guarantees, Armenia's foreign policy would not easily shift back.

Stuck in the middle?

She noted that if Russia were to offer comprehensive security measures to Armenia, it would imply a significantly stronger alignment of Armenia within Russia's neo-imperial sphere, resembling the situation in Belarus. However, the Velvet Revolution in Armenia clearly indicated that such a fate is vehemently opposed and rejected by the Armenian people.

Armenia's leaders are well aware of the upcoming challenges. In an interview with La Repubblica, Pashinyan expressed his concern about Armenia potentially being caught in a geopolitical dilemma, with Russia and the West on opposite sides.

"Western countries and experts often label Armenia as pro-Russian, while in Russia, there are many circles that perceive Armenia or its government as pro-Western," he explained.

Not able to do enough to please either side, Armenia may risk alienating both, leaving itself exposed.

Pashinyan said he feared Armenia will be seen as too Russian by Western nations, and too Western by Russia.

Karen Minasyan/AFP/Getty Images

Many residents of Yerevan are increasingly apprehensive about the possibility of facing repercussions from Russia. These repercussions could manifest in economic terms, as Russia holds significant control over various sectors of Armenia's economy, including telecommunications and energy. In an act that was potentially punitive, the Kremlin imposed a ban on dairy imports from Armenia in April, citing health concerns, although Ohanyan suggested it was related to Yerevan's consideration of ratifying the ICC. Alternatively, the consequences could be even more severe. Ter-Matevosyan emphasized that we must not forget the significant destructive capabilities Russia possesses in the region, particularly with its sizeable military base located north of Yerevan.

The current Armenian government, which is ideologically rooted in liberal Western values, is seizing this opportune moment to finally put into action ideas and beliefs that they have cherished for years. The success of their endeavors remains to be seen, but what remains the biggest question on many minds in Armenia is the cost and impact of this shift and diversification.

CNNs Caolán Magee contributed reporting.