Resuming Ties: Australian Leader's Return to China Ends Seven-Year Struggle
Australia's strained relationship with China for the past seven years has resulted in significant consequences The Australian wine industry has been severely impacted by trade restrictions imposed by Beijing, causing substantial losses for farmers and fishers nationwide Billions of dollars in trade have also been affected As talks between Australia and China resume, the looming factor of US relations adds further complexity to the situation
Australia's strained relations with China in recent years have had significant consequences. The extensive trade restrictions imposed by Beijing caused immense damage to the Australian wine industry, adversely affecting the livelihoods of farmers and fishermen nationwide. Additionally, these tensions had a substantial impact on billions of dollars worth of trade.
In an effort to improve and stabilize the relationship, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is embarking on a pivotal visit to Beijing. This landmark trip marks the first time an Australian leader has visited China in seven years and is widely perceived as a positive step towards resolving the economic tensions that have persisted for years.
The stakes are high for Albanese's four-day visit, scheduled to start on Saturday. During the visit, he will meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang, as well as make stops in Beijing and Shanghai. This visit is particularly significant as it comes after a prolonged diplomatic deadlock between the two countries. The deadlock reached its peak in 2020 when Beijing imposed trade restrictions on a wide range of Australian exports.
The trade issues were initially viewed as a political response to former prime minister Scott Morrison's call for an international inquiry into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic in China. However, the strained relations between the two countries had been deteriorating for a while. China's Foreign Ministry attributed the trade problems to Australia, alleging that it had "violated the fundamental principles of international relations" in 2020. On the other hand, China's commerce ministry has cited reasons such as anti-dumping measures and other factors for the trade restrictions.
Both parties stand to benefit greatly from de-escalating these economic tensions, and they have been diligently working to lay the groundwork for the visit in recent months.
The manner in which these leaders handle their relationship also carries significant implications for the Indo-Pacific region. Smooth communication between China and Australia, a crucial ally of the United States, could serve as a stabilizing force in a region that has become increasingly contentious. This will undoubtedly be closely monitored by leaders from Washington to Seoul.
Albanese's trip also holds symbolic significance, commemorating the 50-year anniversary of the inaugural visit made by an Australian leader to Communist China after the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two nations. According to Jingdong Yuan, an associate professor at the University of Sydney specializing in Asia-Pacific security, this visit to honor the diplomatic milestone signifies a progression in relations.
"This visit holds great symbolism and significance. In just 18 months, they have managed to distance themselves from a low point, making this a promising start for them to delve into potential areas of collaboration," he stated.
On the table in Australia-China talks
The proceedings will be overshadowed by various tensions. Analysts argue that while the meetings may establish a basis for increased communication, they will not be sufficient to reverse the current delicate state of the relationship.
Australia has grown increasingly worried about alleged Chinese espionage and political interference, Beijing's aspirations in the Pacific Islands region, and its detention of Australian nationals due to China's intensified economic campaign.
Journalist Cheng Lei was released last month after being detained in 2020, while writer Yang Hengjun, who denies the espionage charges against him, remains imprisoned since his detention in 2019. Beijing is becoming increasingly concerned about Canberra's strengthening security relationship with Washington amidst the escalating rivalry between the United States and China. China has long been displeased with Australia's public expressions of national security concerns, such as the 2018 ban on telecommunications provider Huawei.
Albanese's Labor government winning the election last May resulted in a change in tensions, prompting Beijing to slowly ease trade controls. This included lifting restrictions on barley, timber, and coal, as the new Australian leadership adopted a less confrontational approach. Canberra recently revealed Albanese's upcoming trip after both countries reached a deal that could potentially eliminate tariffs on wine. This issue had been a significant point of contention in the previous trade restrictions and resolving it is estimated to bring a benefit of around 1.2 billion Australian dollars ($773.6 million) to Australia.
Albanese is expected to advocate for the removal of current restrictions, such as those on lobster, during his discussions with Chinese officials. He will also address concerns regarding China's aggressive actions in the South China Sea and its detention of Yang.
"When it comes to China, our approach is one of cooperation when possible, but we will express disagreement when necessary. We will act in the best interest of Australia and I will always represent the concerns of Australians," Albanese stated to reporters on Wednesday, following his confirmation of communication with Yang's family.
According to Elena Collinson, a researcher at the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney, the visit of Australian leaders to Beijing offers a chance to advocate for increased Chinese access to Australia's resources and renewable energy sectors. Additionally, Collinson mentioned that Chinese leaders might seek Albanese's support for China's inclusion in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a free trade agreement involving countries throughout the Pacific region.
The visit for China comes at a time when it is striving to mend relations with other economic partners in Europe who are friendly towards the US, in order to prevent them from aligning too closely with America's China policy. Collinson stated that with tensions mounting with the US and China's own economic situation becoming unstable, it is in China's best interests to establish stability in its relations with a resource-rich ally in the US.
Wine barrels and pallets of bottles are stacked at a winery in the Yarra Valley, Victoria, Australia in late 2020.
James Bugg/Bloomberg/Getty Images
US relations loom
Albanese is traveling to Beijing in under two weeks since his meeting with US President Joe Biden in Washington. During their meeting, both leaders expressed their mutual concern regarding China's excessive maritime claims in the South China Sea.
Analysts say as Albanese aims to mend ties with China, he will need to carefully navigate the interests of the AUKUS security partnership between Australia, the US, and the United Kingdom, as well as the Quad informal grouping with Japan, India, and the US, balancing them with China's suspicions about their objectives.
Yuan, director of the China-Asia Security Program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sydney, stated that Albanese has the ability to communicate the message concerning the Quad or AUKUS. Australia has a lengthy history of participation in such security arrangements, and they do not specifically target China. Furthermore, Yuan mentioned that Albanese can highlight how China's actions could influence the trajectory of these arrangements. Australia has the opportunity to serve as an example to other middle powers closely aligned with the United States on effectively conveying messages between the US and China and managing relationships with both nations.
Xi is anticipated to participate in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco later this month and hold a meeting with Biden, as both nations work towards stabilizing their strained relationship. Moreover, the amelioration of tensions with Australia could contribute to fostering a favorable environment leading up to these crucial negotiations.
China's new milestone with Australia has prompted analysts to suggest that the Chinese leader and officials may be observing the consequences of their economic campaign against the country. The use of trade as a weapon failed to make a close US ally retreat, only leading to increased suspicion and wariness among other nations about China's intentions.
CNNs Michelle Toh contributed reporting.
