Restricting International Travel: Introducing Carbon Passports as a Viable Solution

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The summer of 2023 marked a major turning point for the travel industry, with international tourist arrivals reaching 84% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of July. Some European countries, including France, Denmark, and Ireland, even saw tourism demand surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

While this may be positive for the economy, there are worries about the negative environmental and social impacts of returning to the previous state. This past summer brought unprecedented heatwaves to various regions, leading to wildfires in Greece and Hawaii, as well as extreme weather warnings in popular holiday spots such as Portugal, Spain, and Turkey. Climate change has been identified as a key factor contributing to these extreme weather conditions.

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The tourism industry contributes to the issue, generating approximately 10% of the greenhouse gas emissions responsible for the climate crisis.

What is a carbon passport?

The environmental consequences of tourism have reached such alarming levels that many experts are now advocating for significant changes to our travel behavior. In a study on the future of eco-friendly tourism released in 2023, travel company Intrepid Travel put forward the idea that "carbon passports" will soon be a necessity for the survival of the tourism industry.

Each traveler is allocated a yearly carbon allowance, with the concept of a carbon passport aiming to ration travel accordingly. While seemingly extreme, the idea of personal carbon allowances is not novel, as a similar concept was previously explored by the UK Parliament in 2008, though it was ultimately discarded due to perceived complexity and potential public resistance.

The average annual carbon footprint for an individual in the US is 16 tons, which is one of the highest rates worldwide. In the UK, the figure is 11.7 tons, still more than five times the recommended amount by the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

On a global scale, the average annual carbon footprint per person is closer to 4 tons. However, in order to have the best chance of preventing temperature rise from exceeding 2 degrees Celsius, the average global carbon footprint must decrease to under two tons by 2050. This is equivalent to approximately two roundtrip flights between London and New York.

Intrepid Travels report predicts that carbon passports will be in action by 2040. Nevertheless, various laws and restrictions enacted over the past year indicate that our travel habits may already be on the brink of change.

The average annual carbon footprint for a person in the US is 16 tons.

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Targeting air travel

Between 2013 and 2018, there was a 32% increase in the amount of CO₂ emitted by commercial aircraft worldwide. Although there have been improvements in fuel efficiency to reduce per passenger emissions, research from 2014 suggests that the industry's efforts to decrease carbon emissions will be outweighed by the growth in air traffic.

In order for emission reductions to make a significant impact, ticket prices would need to increase by 1.4% annually, which may deter some individuals from flying. Nevertheless, ticket prices have actually been decreasing. Several European countries are now implementing initiatives to decrease air travel. Starting from April 1, 2023, passengers on short-haul flights and older aircraft in Belgium will be subjected to higher taxes in order to promote alternative modes of transportation.

France recently implemented a ban on short-haul domestic flights if the same trip can be made by train in two-and-a-half hours or less. Spain is expected to do the same. Germany may also be considering a similar scheme, as 70% of Germans were found to support measures to combat climate change if alternative transport routes like trains or ships were available, according to a 2021 YouGov poll.

Cruises and carbon

Not only air travel, but also cruise ships are under scrutiny. A study conducted by the European Federation for Transport and Environment in 2023 revealed that cruise ships emit four times more sulfuric gases (known to cause acid rain and various respiratory problems) into the atmosphere than all of Europe's 291 million cars combined.

The impact of statistics like these has prompted European destinations to take a stand against the cruise industry. For example, in July, the council in Amsterdam enacted a ban on cruise ships docking in the city center as part of an effort to decrease tourism and pollution. This measure has already proven successful in other places.

In 2019, Venice was ranked as the most polluted European port, largely due to the high volume of cruise ship visits. However, by 2022, it had dropped to 41st place after implementing a ban on large cruise ships entering the city's waters. This move resulted in an 80% reduction in air pollutants from ships in Venice.

Slovenia may grow in popularity as travelers seek out European destinations with cooler temperatures.

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Changing destinations

The Intrepid Travels report emphasizes that climate change will not only impact how we travel but also where we travel. Rising temperatures may decrease the appeal of traditional beach destinations, leading European tourists to seek out cooler alternatives like Belgium, Slovenia, and Poland for their summer vacations. As evidence of this trend, multiple travel agencies noted a significant increase in bookings for cooler European destinations such as Scandinavia, Ireland, and the UK during the peak summer travel months of 2023.

Changes to our travel habits seem unavoidable, regardless of the solution. Popular destinations like Barcelona, the Italian Riviera, and Mount Everest are beginning to restrict tourist numbers due to the challenges of managing crowds and pollution. Travelers should consider adjusting their habits now, before they are required to do so.

Ross Bennett-Cook is a visiting lecturer, School of Architecture + Cities, University of Westminster