Republican senators, some of whom have been strong supporters of providing additional aid to Ukraine, stated on Monday evening that they are ready to oppose a $100 billion national security package unless it incorporates significant border policy adjustments. This has raised uncertainty about whether the aid will be approved this year, following an impasse in border discussions over the weekend. Senate Republican Whip John Thune characterized the state of border discussions as in a "lull" and suggested that the Senate could potentially go on holiday without passing a bill, placing the responsibility on Democrats.
"I'm not sure, it's really up to the Democrats. They are in charge up here," he said. "I don't think we can make progress unless we have a border piece in it." Senate Democrats have stated that border talks have come to a standstill, but Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma, the top Republican negotiator, suggested Monday night that progress could still be made. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell also emphasized during his floor speech that Republicans are still participating in the negotiations.
As time grows short and senators prepare to leave Washington in just two weeks, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer may have to consider advancing an aid package without the border policy changes in order to challenge Republicans to vote against additional aid to Ukraine and Israel, which is an important priority for many Senate Republicans. Schumer will need nine Republicans to overcome a procedural hurdle, but many Republicans have indicated that they won't support the Democrats in this effort. "Sen. Schumer may need to witness a failed cloture vote on the supplemental before he understands our determination," stated Sen. John Cornyn, a Texas Republican, during a press briefing.
The other members concurred with West Virginia GOP Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, who stated on Monday, "I am opposed to moving forward on cloture. I'm not opposed to a national security supplemental at all, but it has to include our own national security at the border."
Lankford also anticipated the failure of a vote. "I don't want anything to be voted on and fail," he stated. "If Schumer brings it up, it will definitely fail. This just shows that everyone is aware of where we stand on this issue."
Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, a staunch advocate for Ukraine aid, expressed the need for increased funding for Ukraine, emphasizing the importance of border policy changes. She stated that she would also vote against advancing the supplemental package if significant changes to border policy are not made.
Senator Chuck Grassley, also from Iowa, echoed Ernst's sentiments.
Grassley stated that he was unsure how 60 votes would be obtained to bring that up without it. The Senate is only one obstacle Schumer will encounter by the end of the year. Even if lawmakers could secure a supplemental package from the Senate, House Speaker Mike Johnson's own political balancing act in the GOP-controlled House will be a challenge. Hardliners are pushing not only for border policy changes, but also for changes that closely resemble the House-passed border bill from earlier this year. Johnson has communicated the dynamics within his conference to GOP leaders.
Republicans are urging the White House and President Joe Biden to negotiate a strong agreement on border security, citing the increasing number of immigrants at the southern border and its potential impact on the president's reelection. However, Thune voiced his frustration on Monday, stating that the White House has not shown enough seriousness in addressing the border crisis.
Meanwhile, Democrats are criticizing Republicans for making excessive demands in the negotiations.
Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut expressed concern, stating, "We're stuck until Republicans are willing to compromise and have a genuine conversation." He also cautioned that US allies should be concerned about the actions of the Republicans.
"Look, I have a variety of important domestic issues I prioritize. I could insist that Republicans make changes to our background check laws in exchange for my vote on Ukraine, but I choose not to because Ukraine holds too much significance - it's the future of the world," stated Murphy.
He acknowledged that the likelihood of Congress adjourning without providing additional aid to Ukraine is growing by the day, but emphasized that there are moments that simply cannot end in failure.
The border issue has created a precarious moment for aid to Ukraine and Israel, which have bipartisan support but are now facing complications. GOP support for aid to Ukraine has softened, but many GOP senators and a coalition of Democrats and Republicans in the House still back it. However, the contentious issue of immigration has complicated the effort, leading to doubts about finding a resolution this year. This report includes contributions from CNN's Sam Fossum.