Putin's Peace Talk Gesture: Ukraine's Caution Justified

Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent openness to peace talks should be approached with caution, considering Ukraine's and the West's history with Russian diplomacy.

There was a lot of talk about negotiations on Friday, happening at the same time Russia initiated its third invasion of Ukraine from the north of Kharkiv.

The Reuters news agency reported that Moscow may be open to peace talks to freeze the current Russian occupation of a fifth of Ukraine, based on information from two experienced Russia reporters and four sources.

In response to the report, Putin indicated that Russia is willing to discuss peace based on previous agreements. He mentioned a failed deal in Istanbul in 2022, shortly after the start of the war, which collapsed due to ongoing Russian military actions and reports of massacres near Kyiv.

CNN’s Nick Patton Walsh talks to Oleksandr inside a bunker in Lyptsi, Ukraine.

CNN’s Nick Patton Walsh talks to Oleksandr inside a bunker in Lyptsi, Ukraine.

Brice Lainé/CNN

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Battles are raging outside Kharkiv as Ukraine tries to hold back the Russian advance. The Reuters report suggests a plan that falls short of Moscow's goal to capture all of eastern Donetsk. This plan would also eliminate Kyiv's stance of not surrendering any territory.

Putin's remarks during his visit to Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko were significant due to the context. Historically, such visits have preceded the Kremlin's use of Belarusian territory for military actions in Ukraine. In a similar vein, the recent meeting took place amidst joint tactical nuclear weapons drills between the two countries, setting a tense backdrop for Putin's talks of peace.

During his visit, Putin raised doubts about the legitimacy of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, a leader that Moscow has consistently criticized. This skepticism arose after Kyiv had to postpone elections due to the conflict initiated by Putin. Additionally, there were rumors circulating about the arrival of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich's private jet in Belarus. Yanukovich, who fled Ukraine in 2014 following violent clashes in Kyiv, is seen as a pro-Russian figure. Speculations arose that Moscow might be aiming to reinstate him as a puppet leader in Ukraine.

Unconfirmed reports allege that Viktor Yanukovich, the former president of Ukraine who was ousted by street protests and fled to Russia in 2014, has landed in Belarus.

Unconfirmed reports allege that Viktor Yanukovich, the former president of Ukraine who was ousted by street protests and fled to Russia in 2014, has landed in Belarus.

The Kremlin's goal in Ukraine, without completely taking over, is to have a president in Kyiv that is loyal to them. This president would prevent Ukraine from moving closer to the European Union and NATO. This idea was discussed before the 2022 invasion and also brought up during the failed 2022 Istanbul talks. However, implementing this plan now would probably require a Russian force to occupy Ukraine and enforce it on a population that is angry about the Kremlin's harsh actions.

So why is there talk of peace, especially when Russia seems to be experiencing a successful period on the frontlines for the first time in months, if not since the invasion?

Diplomacy has always been used as a military strategy by the Kremlin. For instance, in 2015, Russia discussed peace in Syria while their jets were attacking civilians in rebel-held areas. Similarly, they engaged in peace talks with Ukraine in 2015 while Russian troops and their allies were launching a full assault on the strategic Ukrainian town of Debaltseve.

It is not cynical to question Russia's sincerity during negotiations, but rather a practical necessity. History has shown that Russia is willing to engage in talks in the hopes of achieving a positive outcome without resorting to violence, or to give its opponent a reason to pause fighting in order to pursue a deal.

There are two possible reasons why Moscow is once again discussing peace. Firstly, Ukraine and its allies are planning a peace summit in Switzerland in June, where they will discuss potential deals without the involvement of Russia. This summit aims to generate momentum for a potential resolution that the Kremlin could consider when its forces are either exhausted or at a stalemate.

Zelensky hopes China, Russia's ally but not fully on board with the Ukraine war, will join the talks. Putin's push for peace now could be a way to tell Beijing not to get involved in Russia's affairs without Russia being present. The upcoming Switzerland summit is unlikely to end the war, but it could help Western leaders understand the gravity of Moscow's threat to a lasting peace by outlining the potential territorial compromises Ukraine may need to make to stop the violence.

Russian troops have taken advantage of a weakened front line in Ukraine, and have advanced towards Kharkiv.

Russian troops have taken advantage of a weakened front line in Ukraine, and have advanced towards Kharkiv.

Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, expressed on Friday that Putin's hints at peace talks were actually meant to disrupt the summit. According to Kuleba, Putin has no intention of stopping his aggression towards Ukraine and is particularly anxious about the Switzerland summit.

Furthermore, Putin's main target with his messages seems to be the governments in the West and the ongoing American presidential campaign. He is subtly implying that a simple deal is on the table, possibly appealing to populists in Europe or MAGA Republicans in the United States. This deal would involve freezing the current frontlines, where Ukraine is suffering significant casualties.

Western support for the war is becoming more and more expensive and less popular. However, the recent approval of $61 billion by Congress may have temporarily eased the pressure of public opinion for about a year.

According to a Reuters report, some people in the West believe that the Kremlin has the power to immediately end the war. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov presented the report as reflecting Russia's permanent stance. This may catch the attention of key Western figures like Donald Trump, who has not explained how he would fulfill his claim of stopping the war within 24 hours. Other NATO members, who are not as confident as France, the UK, and the Baltic states in trusting Russia at the negotiating table, may also find this report intriguing.

Putin is a pragmatist. He initially believed that starting the war would be easy. He has continued the conflict, relying on his high tolerance for pain, autocratic security measures, and patience for victory. Currently, he sees a moment of electoral weakness in the US and other European countries, which has prompted him to suggest a possible opportunity for diplomacy.

This diplomatic move may attract those who wish for the Ukraine war to end quickly, without considering the serious threat posed by a victorious and heavily militarized Moscow to NATO's eastern members. However, it is important to remember Moscow's past diplomatic actions in Syria and Ukraine, which were used to pursue military objectives aggressively under the guise of seeking peace.

Editor's P/S:

Putin's recent peace overtures should be met with skepticism given Russia's history of using diplomacy as a military strategy. The timing of these talks, coinciding with Russia's advances in Ukraine and the upcoming peace summit in Switzerland, suggests that Moscow is attempting to disrupt the summit and appeal to Western governments and voters weary of the ongoing conflict. Putin's hints at a simple deal to freeze the current frontlines may resonate with those seeking a quick end to the war, but it is crucial to consider the long-term consequences of a Russian victory and the threat it poses to NATO's eastern members.

Moscow's past diplomatic actions in Syria and Ukraine serve as reminders of the Kremlin's willingness to pursue military objectives under the guise of seeking peace. It is important for Western leaders and the public to remain vigilant and not be swayed by Putin's attempts to portray himself as a peacemaker while continuing his aggression towards Ukraine. The upcoming peace summit in Switzerland provides an opportunity for a potential resolution, but it is essential to prioritize Ukraine's territorial integrity and security over hasty deals that could embolden Moscow and endanger the stability of Europe.