Protests Reflect Growing Frustration that Poses Challenges for Biden's 2024 Campaign

Israel could not have wished for a more supportive ally than President Joe Biden. In the aftermath of the devastating Hamas attack on October 7, Biden empathized with Israelis as if he were part of their community. Despite the growing global criticism over the numerous civilian casualties in Gaza resulting from Israel's retaliation against Hamas, Biden has consistently affirmed the Jewish state's justified response.

But the escalating fury and divisions within the Democratic Party regarding the intensity of Israel's invasion of Gaza and the absence of a ceasefire are generating an unpredictable political climate in the United States. The dissent and restlessness among younger voters, particularly Arab Americans, seem to be heightening the political vulnerability for Biden as the election year approaches. These divisions, which might exacerbate his weaknesses within his own party, pose a substantial threat to his chances of securing a second term.

On November 15, 2023, in Washington, DC, U.S. Capitol Police intervened by pulling protesters away from the Democratic National Committee headquarters during a demonstration opposing the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. Jewish Voice for Peace and If Not Now organized a candlelight vigil outside the DNC headquarters, urging for an immediate ceasefire. The photograph showing this event was captured by Alex Wong and is owned by Getty Images.

Top House Democrats were forced to evacuate from the DNC headquarters due to clashes between police and protesters demanding a ceasefire in Gaza.

In order to navigate carefully, President Biden has strived to strike a balance. He dismissed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's claims that Israel would maintain control over Gaza after the conflict. He also emphasized the importance of safeguarding hospitals in the Hamas-ruled enclave. Furthermore, he asserted that a two-state solution is crucial for putting an end to violence in the Middle East.

In addition to his international efforts, President Biden has announced a strategy to combat Islamophobia, addressing concerns among certain Democrats about potentially losing support from Muslim Americans, particularly in the crucial swing state of Michigan during the upcoming election. Recognizing the alarming increase in antisemitic incidents across the United States, especially in educational institutions, the president has taken steps to protect Jewish Americans via his administration.

However, as the civilian casualties in Gaza continue to increase and activists on the American left become increasingly angry, concerns will arise regarding Biden's ability to maintain his ongoing support for Israel's military actions. While senior administration officials have consistently denied that Biden's decisions regarding Israel are influenced by domestic politics, Democratic Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia stated on CBS "Face the Nation" that the progressive anger towards the war could potentially harm Biden's political standing. Additionally, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez expressed to CNN that the White House's stance on the Gaza war was also a concern for Biden, particularly among younger voters who Democrats often rely on to increase turnout. Ocasio-Cortez emphasized the significance of this issue, noting that young people have been closely following the situation. This issue is particularly crucial considering the president's overall weak political standing, as polls indicate a loss of support from key elements of the Democratic coalition during his reelection campaign.

New polling shows that an increasing number of Americans, particularly Democrats and younger individuals, disapprove of Israel's military reaction to the Hamas terrorist attack. In the recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, 38% of Americans believe that Israel's military response has been excessive, which is an increase from 26% in the October survey. This sentiment is shared by over half of Democrats and approximately half of voters under the age of 45.

President Joe Biden convened a Cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, DC on October 2, 2023. The purpose of the meeting was to address key issues such as economic legislation, artificial intelligence, and gun violence. The photograph was captured by Kevin Dietsch and is part of the Getty Images collection.

Biden receives a cautionary message from crucial younger voters in his coalition.

Currently, Biden is not publicly exhibiting any signs of being affected by political pressure. Just last Wednesday, he affirmed Israel's authority to take action at the al-Shifa hospital in Gaza, a move that was heavily criticized by progressive individuals and young Democratic voters who are dissatisfied with America's backing of Israel. The Israeli government alleged that the hospital housed a secret Hamas command center, presenting a photo and video of an alleged "operational tunnel shaft," while Hamas denied these claims as unfounded falsehoods. CNN cannot verify the assertions made by either side.

"You have a situation where Hamas, by concealing their headquarters and military under a hospital, is committing the first war crime. That is a fact; that is what has occurred," stated Biden in San Francisco. The administration further supported Israel by claiming to possess its own independent intelligence regarding how Hamas utilized the building, although Biden declined to disclose specifics. According to three individuals familiar with the assessment, as reported by CNN on Thursday, it primarily involved signals intelligence, including intercepted conversations among the militants.

Bidens longtime support for Israel may now hurt him politically

Bidens long-standing commitment to Israel remains unwavering, spanning his time as a senator, vice president, and now as president. Despite occasional political disagreements with certain Israeli administrations, such as the recent rift with Netanyahu that was resolved just a few months ago, his support for Israel has remained consistent.

However, it is important to note that while the United States has been a steadfast ally of Israel, there are instances where American interests and Bidens political priorities do not perfectly align with those of Israel. This was evident last week when the White House received alarming warnings from US diplomats in the Arab world about the potential long-term consequences of certain actions, with a diplomatic cable obtained by CNN stating that the US risked alienating Arab populations for years to come.

At home, the war in Gaza has further exposed deep ideological divisions within the Democratic Party and the coalition that President Biden relies on for his reelection campaign next year. Younger voters, in particular, are expressing stronger support for the Palestinians than is traditionally seen in the United States. This shift in sentiment comes as a result of distressing video footage showing civilian casualties caused by Israel's ongoing bombings. Anti-Israel sentiments, at times crossing into explicit antisemitism, have sparked protests on college campuses. The left-wing, in particular, has seized upon the plight of the Palestinians as a rallying point for progressive activists and a focal point for their political agenda.

The most striking manifestation of this dissent occurred on Wednesday when protesters outside the Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington demanded a ceasefire in Gaza, a call that President Biden has refused to make. The demonstration led to clashes between the protesters and the police, just as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and other senior Democratic leaders were present inside the building.

The Republicans, often criticized for their lack of strong condemnation of the mob violence at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, saw an opportunity to assert that the Democrats were aligned with a lawless extremist group. Andy Biggs, an Arizona representative and vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump, posted on X that "the Democrat Party has cultivated a faction within their own party that is antisemitic and supports terrorism."

Additionally, protests erupted in California on Thursday during the Asia-Pacific summit hosted by President Biden, with a line of cars blocking the Bay Bridge between Oakland and San Francisco.

Another factor that could shape a volatile election year

Despite their eye-catching nature, the protests thus far have been relatively smaller in size and less intense compared to recent demonstrations, such as those seen during the Black Lives Matter movement following George Floyd's murder, the activism seen during the Occupy Wall Street movement, or the street marches against the Iraq War. Moreover, the scuffles that occurred at the DNC on Wednesday evening, though significant, were preceded by peaceful pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian demonstrations in Washington over the past few weeks, which attracted tens of thousands of protesters.

The political consequences of the Israel war and its impact on left-wing divisions could greatly influence the outcome of an election, particularly in close races. In Michigan, even a small decline in Arab American voter support could be a deciding factor between Biden and a potential GOP nominee like Trump. Additionally, a decrease in enthusiasm among young voters, who already have doubts about Biden's age and are now frustrated by his stance on the Middle East, could harm the president in other regions. CNN's Jeff Zeleny recently discovered significant skepticism towards Biden among young voters in Georgia. Despite winning this demographic by 13 points in 2020, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows Trump now evenly splitting their support.

The White House response to recent coverage of Biden's political liabilities is to argue that once there is a direct comparison with Trump, regular political patterns will resurface. Biden supporters also highlight the strong performance of Democratic candidates and causes in off-year elections this month, such as in Virginia state legislative races and an abortion rights referendum in Ohio.

However, the concern for Biden is not that younger voters will switch to Trump, but rather that many will simply not engage in the election. This poses a risk for Democrats down the ballot as well, considering the challenging Senate landscape next year, particularly for vulnerable Democrats up for reelection in red states.

While many people in the Middle East suffer and face tragedy, it is insensitive to prioritize political considerations. Both Palestinians and Israelis equally yearn for an end to the violence.

Nevertheless, the upcoming US presidential election holds significant global ramifications. For the sake of politics and the well-being of humanity, it is imperative for Biden to work towards achieving peace at the earliest opportunity.