Predictions for the Ukraine Conflict in 2024

Michael Bociurkiw, a global affairs analyst and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, observed that in Odesa, Ukraine, on January 6, many people celebrated the Christian holiday Epiphany by jumping into the Black Sea despite the winter temperatures.

This year's cold plunge held special significance as it was the war-torn nation's first celebration of the Christian feast day on January 6 according to the Gregorian calendar, rather than on January 19 according to the Julian calendar.

Ukraine passed legislation last year to align its Christmas celebrations with many Western dates, further distancing itself from traditions commonly observed in Russia.

On January 6, 2024, in Odesa, a priest conducted a blessing of the waters of the Black Sea as part of the Epiphany celebration. Many Ukrainians participated in the Christian ritual by taking a dip in the icy waters.

Oleksandr Gimanov/AFP/Getty Images

In the recent weeks, it has become nearly impossible to ignore the threatening presence of Russia, as missiles and drones continuously target various Ukrainian cities, including Odesa.

As 2023 came to an end, Russia initiated the largest air assault on Ukraine since the start of its full-scale invasion. This was quickly followed by another nearly equal barrage just days later.

These intensified and frequent attacks, coupled with reports of the Ukrainian counteroffensive faltering and Western supporters withholding billions in funding, signal a significant turning point in the war.

The global focus on the Israel-Hamas war, combined with Russia's full-scale invasion, has left Ukrainians understandably anxious. Even those accustomed to conflict are expressing heightened concern, particularly following the recent Russian attacks.

Olha Radkevych, a friend and former colleague in Odesa, described the harrowing morning when drones and rockets struck. She expressed concern about the dwindling supply of patriot rockets to defend against the Russian onslaught. Nowadays, people are visibly worn down by the relentless attacks. Living in this environment is taking a toll on everyone.

Olha Radkevych expressed concern about the impact of the United States withdrawing support, stating that it could lead to an increase in frequency and severity of attacks. She noted that people are growing increasingly weary and questioned how much longer they can continue living in such a challenging environment.

As Radkevych tried to enjoy dinner with friends on New Year's Eve and put the war out of his mind, a Russian drone flew over their neighborhood, requiring their close attention and monitoring.

At one point, security experts believed that Russia's supply of weapons was dwindling. However, it seems that the Kremlin has been able to replenish its stockpile, and reports indicate that it is now utilizing short-range ballistic missiles in Ukraine, which are believed to have been produced by its ally, North Korea.

Mobilization: A political hot potato

On the other hand, the influx of drones from Iran appears to be inexhaustible, with alarming accounts of Iran sharing technology for the production of additional drones in Russia. This new supply is said to be "orders of magnitude larger" than the previous inventory.

As Russia's full-scale invasion approaches the two-year mark and shows no sign of ending soon, Ukraine's leaders are calling on their citizens for more support. Parliament is likely to approve new mobilization legislation that could enlist up to 500,000 additional men into the battle.

Rescue workers are seen at the scene of a residential building that was severely affected by a missile strike carried out by Russia during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine on January 2, 2024. The image is credited to REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko.

Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters

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President Volodymyr Zelensky, seeking to distance himself from the controversial act, stated that it was necessary to provide relief for those who have been on the frontlines for months. In a clear political maneuver, he shifted the responsibility to the military leadership, particularly Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, who is also seen as a potential political rival, to justify the decision to the public.

Additionally, Zelensky has proposed potentially lowering the minimum draft age to 25 from the current 27.

Mobilization is a politically sensitive issue that few leaders are willing to tackle. President Vladimir Putin himself hesitated for several months before approving Russia's first mobilization since World War II. The extent of Ukrainian war losses is difficult to quantify, but a visit to the military section of the Lychakiv Cemetery in Lviv makes it clear that it is close to reaching maximum capacity.

A war fought on many fronts

The battle is being waged on multiple fronts. During a visit to Kyiv before Christmas, I observed a noticeable decrease in economic activity, and the visible impact of war is now nearly impossible to overlook.

As passengers emerge from the central train station, they are met with the sight of a heavily damaged tall office building facade from explosions. At the city center bistro, Le Cosmopolite, a lone waitress is serving just two tables, expressing concern about the worsening poverty in the area. The mood across Ukraine has turned glum as fears of stalled aid packages from the US and European Union, totaling $61 billion and $52 billion respectively, are attributed to political bickering.

The countdown is on. Ukraine is facing a significant budget deficit, and there are concerns that by February, it will struggle to meet public sector wage payments.

2024s big unfreeze?

Ukraine's situation may be grim, but there is a glimmer of hope in the form of Russian assets. The EU's recent approval of sanctions against Alrosa, Russia's largest diamond producer, and its CEO is a major victory for Ukraine. The EU stated that the company, which constitutes 90% of Russia's diamond production, is a vital part of an economic sector that generates substantial government revenue.

Russia's annual diamond exports are approximately $4.4 billion, with around $1.6 billion of that going to the EU. This could have a significant impact on funding for Putin's military efforts.

Ukraine is poised to start reaping the rewards of the estimated hundreds of billions in Russian assets frozen overseas, beginning with tax revenues collected by Belgium, which holds the majority of the frozen Russian sovereign assets. The anticipated $2.4 billion in tax revenue would greatly benefit Ukraine's reconstruction efforts and help address budget shortfalls in Kyiv.

Meanwhile, the US and its western allies are actively pursuing the remaining frozen assets in other countries. Led by the US, the development of a roadmap for accessing these assets could potentially be completed before the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion in mid-February.

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Follow us on Twitter and Facebook. In the end, it may be up to the Ukrainian people to stop Putin from completely destroying Ukrainian statehood. The news of Ukraine tripling its domestic military production in 2023 and developing advanced drones from scratch gives me hope that, with or without increased support from the West, Ukraine will resist Russia.

When it feels like a far-off dream, I think of the words of Kira Rudik, a Member of Parliament and leader of the Holos Party, whose Kyiv flat was severely damaged in a Russian attack on January 2. She shared with me, "I have witnessed an incredible amount of love and support, and people coming together in ways I don't normally see. So, whenever someone says we are exhausted, it's no surprise - war is exhausting."