Potential Summer Surge: New Covid-19 Variants Pose Uncertain Threat, Experts Warn
With Covid-19 cases at record lows in the US, the emergence of new virus variants raises concerns about a possible summer surge. Uncertainty looms as experts caution about the threat posed by these new variants amid the ongoing pandemic.
Covid-19 levels are currently at their lowest point in the United States. However, a new set of virus variants poses a threat to disrupt this positive trend as the country enters the summer months.
KP.2, known as one of the FLiRT variants, has now surpassed JN.1 to become the dominant coronavirus variant in the United States. Data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reveals that as of May 11, KP.2 is responsible for over a quarter of cases in the country, almost double the number caused by JN.1. Additionally, a related variant called KP.1.1 has been linked to approximately 7% of cases, according to CDC data.
FLiRT variants are derived from the JN.1 variant, which belongs to the larger Omicron family that led to the recent winter surge. The acronym in the name signifies the specific locations of amino acid mutations acquired by the virus. Some of these mutations enable the virus to evade the body's immune system, while others enhance its ability to spread easily.
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Covid-19 variants are constantly changing due to mutations. These mutations can either make antibodies from vaccines or previous infections less effective (called escape from immunity) or make the virus more easily bind to cells, according to Dr. Andy Pekosz, a virologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
The virus causing Covid-19 keeps evolving in a predictable pattern. However, experts admit that they still lack enough knowledge to foresee where the next changes will occur or how they will impact the virus's spread among the population.
The mutations of the FLiRT variants pose a real threat by increasing transmissibility, potentially leading to a summer wave of Covid-19. The virus has shown some seasonal patterns in the past, including a summer increase, but the level of risk for this year remains uncertain.
According to Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University, some variants in the past have initially shown strength but did not become dominant. It is possible that these subvariants could become more widespread, accounting for 20% to 40% of cases, or they may plateau at a certain level. Ultimately, the virus will determine its course of action and our ability to predict it remains limited.
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Covid-19 surveillance in the US has decreased since the public health emergency ended a year ago, leading to some uncertainty. However, the available data shows consistency. Currently, wastewater surveillance indicates that viral activity is minimal and decreasing nationwide, and Covid-19 hospitalization rates continue to remain very low.
"We have learned from the laboratories that FLiRT variants are just as contagious as other Omicron subvariants. However, they do not seem to cause more severe illness or have unique clinical symptoms," explained Schaffner.
As of May 1, the requirement for hospitals to report Covid-19 data to the federal government has ended. Despite this, Schaffner's Vanderbilt University Medical Center is part of a CDC surveillance network that monitors trends using data from a sample of hospitals covering about 10% of the US population. Data shows that Covid-19 hospitalization rates have dropped from nearly 8 new admissions per 100,000 people in the first week of the year to around 1 new admission per 100,000 people by the end of April.
While the FLiRT variants pose some risk this summer, experts remain focused on what might happen in the fall.
ROME, ITALY - JUNE 03: A healthcare worker of the Asl Roma 2 prepares doses of the AstraZeneca (Vaxzevria) COVID-19 vaccine at the Vaccine Hub Auditorium della Tecnica in the Confindustria headquarters, as part of an open week for vaccinations with no age limit, on June 3, 2021 in Rome, Italy. According the Italian government, just over 20 percent of Italians are fully vaccinated, with 37 percent having received a first dose, on par with the European average. (Photo by Antonio Masiello/Getty Images)
ROME, ITALY - JUNE 03: In Rome, Italy, a healthcare worker from Asl Roma 2 is seen preparing doses of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine at the Vaccine Hub Auditorium della Tecnica in the Confindustria headquarters. This is part of an open week for vaccinations with no age limit. Antonio Masiello/Getty Images
According to the Italian government, just over 20 percent of Italians have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Additionally, 37 percent of the population has received at least one dose of the vaccine, which is in line with the European average.
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Pekosz predicts that there may be a small increase in Covid cases this summer, depending on which variant is prevalent. However, he believes that the real surge in cases will likely occur in the fall. If a variant with mutations that can evade immunity becomes dominant in the fall, the potential for a larger surge in cases is higher.
He also pointed out that the fall and winter seasons pose a higher risk due to the immunity that has developed in the population.
The virus is now looking for better conditions to spread, which will likely happen in the fall when the weather gets cooler. People will be spending more time indoors, increasing the chances of respiratory virus transmission.
A recent study published in the medical journal JAMA serves as a reminder of the ongoing impact of Covid-19 in the US. Despite lower hospitalization rates during the winter compared to previous years, Covid-19 proved to be deadlier than the flu. Research on thousands of hospital patients showed that 5.7% of Covid-19 patients died, while only 4.2% of those hospitalized for influenza passed away. This means that Covid-19 had a 35% higher risk of death compared to the flu.
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People who received the latest Covid-19 vaccine last fall may still have some protection against the newest variants. Even though the vaccine was designed for a different strain, it has been shown to be effective against JN.1, and experts believe it may also offer some protection against its FLiRT relatives. Those who recently had an infection, especially during the time when JN.1 was prevalent earlier this year, may also have some level of protection. However, it's important to note that immunity does decrease over time.
In June, the US Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine advisory committee will convene to discuss recommendations for the upcoming version of the Covid-19 vaccine that will be available in the fall. The meeting was delayed by approximately three weeks to allow for the collection of more surveillance data. This decision was made to ensure that the committee has the most current information available when making recommendations.
For now, experts believe that the risk is still quite low.
According to Schaffner, the current situation regarding Covid is positive. He mentioned that things could change in the coming weeks, but for now, we are in a very good place - the best we have been in for a long time.
Editor's P/S:
The emergence of new Covid-19 variants, particularly KP.2, poses a concerning threat to the downward trend in virus levels across the United States. These variants have the potential to disrupt the positive progress made in recent months and trigger a summer wave of infections. While experts remain uncertain about the exact trajectory of the virus, they emphasize the importance of continued surveillance and adherence to public health guidelines to mitigate its spread.
The article highlights the ongoing impact of Covid-19, despite lower hospitalization rates during the winter. Studies have shown that Covid-19 remains more deadly than the flu, underscoring the need for ongoing vigilance and preventive measures. As the United States enters the summer months, experts anticipate the potential for a small increase in cases due to the FLiRT variants. However, the real surge in infections is more likely to occur in the fall, when the weather cools and people spend more time indoors.
