Potential Impact of Subzero Temperatures on 2024 Republican Caucus Turnout Sparks Concerns
2024 Republican candidates express growing concerns over subzero temperatures in Iowa, fearing it may discourage voters on caucus day and impact expected turnout
The potential 2024 Republican presidential candidates are becoming more worried about the extremely cold weather that Iowans will face on caucus day, recognizing that the temperature could affect voter turnout. Iowa is set to experience its chilliest caucuses on Monday, as an intense Arctic blast moves into the central US this weekend and continues into early next week. Monday is forecasted to be the coldest January day in Iowa in the last five years, with wind chills dropping as low as minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit.
GOP campaigns are hustling to solidify their ground game strategy and manage expectations for success in Iowa, as they prepare to face bitter cold weather. Conversations with the candidates and their top advisers have revealed the need to adapt to the anticipated extreme conditions. Monday morning temperatures are expected to be more than 15 degrees below zero, with nearly the entire state failing to reach above zero degrees in the afternoon. The only exception is the far southeastern portion of the state, which may reach a degree or two above zero. This will mark the first time since February 2021 that the high temperature in Des Moines has failed to reach zero degrees.
With the addition of winds, the already bitter cold will create life-threatening wind chill levels ranging from minus 20 to minus 40 degrees throughout the day. These extreme conditions pose potential dangers for Iowans waiting to caucus, as well as potential accessibility issues for some campaigns, who fear that caucusgoers' cars may fail to start or break down on their way to their designated locations.
Holly Moeller, a 65-year-old Republican voter from Rock Rapids, Iowa, shared with CNN that she is unsure if she will be able to attend the caucus on Monday due to the weather. She expressed concern about the frigid temperatures and the risk of getting sick, especially since she lives with her 90-year-old mother. Moeller stated that she is not completely certain about the forecast for Northwest Iowa on Monday, but she anticipates it being cold enough to warrant caution.
"Its below zero," she said of the Monday forecast. "I dont know, I cant tell the difference between -2 and -10, can you?"
Vivek Ramaswamy, a Republican candidate for the presidential election, addresses the press during a campaign event at the Hampton Inn & Suites Sioux City South on January 8, 2024, in Sioux City, Iowa.
Image credit: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
The severe cold and snowstorm in Iowa this week have already disrupted candidates' schedules. Haley's campaign called off an event in Sioux City on Monday because of the storm, while the Trump campaign also canceled an event with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and his daughter, current Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, due to travel issues caused by the storm.
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy criticized Haley for canceling her campaign stop due to the snow, but then canceled three of his own events on Tuesday due to the hazardous conditions.
What the campaigns are saying about Monday
The Trump campaign is increasing its cautions that Iowans must not become complacent in the last days before the caucuses or allow the weather to discourage their participation, despite the former president's status as the front-runner.
The campaign's ground game strategy in the state is focused on maximizing caucusgoer turnout on January 15. Trump's team is banking on a strong showing in Iowa, aiming for a record victory that will launch the former president through the early-voting states and potentially secure enough delegates by mid-March to become the presumptive GOP nominee, according to multiple Trump advisers who spoke with CNN.
However, Trump's advisers have privately acknowledged that his lead in Iowa may be affected by the expected subzero temperatures on caucus day. They are now working to manage expectations for Trump's anticipated lead on January 15, both internally and with the media and general voters.
According to a senior Trump campaign adviser speaking to CNN, the weather may have dampened the intensity, but a win is a win. The adviser mentioned that there are high expectations and that no one has ever won Iowa by more than 12 points, so that is the goal they are aiming for. Recent polls indicate that Trump is leading his closest rivals, DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, by more than 30 points. The adviser also emphasized that the president understands the importance of showing up and turning out, which has been the focus and message of the campaign.
At a campaign event in Sioux Center, Iowa last week, Trump warned the audience that the only way that they could be harmed is if they chose to stay home on January 15. This message reflects concerns within Trump's inner circle that his strong lead in the Iowa polls might cause his supporters to assume victory is certain and stay home, especially given the predicted freezing weather conditions next week.
Trumps team has been strategically planning for months to ensure that Iowans have easy access to caucus locations. As part of this plan, Trump's advisers have hired drivers with four-wheel drive vehicles in specific areas across the state to assist in transporting caucusgoers.
"We have placed them in crucial areas where we aim to rally support and where adverse weather conditions could impact turnout," stated a senior Trump adviser.
Despite their worries, Trump's advisors maintain their confidence in the former president's anticipated win next Monday. They believe that any weather-related issues next week will have a greater negative effect on his opponents, particularly DeSantis and Haley, than on Trump. This notion was used by Trump to rally his supporters over the weekend.
"I've heard that your nights are going to be pretty cold next week. So, you just have to put on a warm coat," Trump told the audience in Newton, Iowa last weekend. He mentioned that he inquired about the expected frigid weather and was informed that it's a good sign. "I asked, 'Why is that good?'" Trump said. "Because their people don't have the enthusiasm to vote."
"Bad weather won't keep our people away, it'll keep their people away," Trump concluded.
According to a senior Trump campaign adviser speaking to CNN, the turnout battle and weather will affect everyone, but the impact will be most significant for Nikki and Ron due to their very close margin against each other. The adviser went on to say that this situation presents a bigger problem for others as opposed to their own campaign, as Nikki and Ron have a smaller pool and are the ones trying to make larger gains.
"Look at it this way: a decrease of 3 or 4 points due to weather and turnout doesn't affect us as much as it affects the two candidates who are within 3 points of each other," remarked another adviser.
On a chilly evening on January 10, 2024, just five days before the Iowa Caucus, Nikki Haley's supporters and students gathered at Buzzard Billy's in Des Moines to watch the Republican presidential debate between Haley and Ron DeSantis.
According to the Haley campaign, the Trump campaign's claim that the weather could significantly impact her standing is disputed. Her campaign aides argued that people in the Hawkeye State are accustomed to cold winters, and therefore the weather would not have a major effect. This view has also been expressed by her supporters.
"Iowans are accustomed to this type of weather, unlike others in the country. Dealing with the cold temperatures is nothing new for us. You just bundle up and carry on as usual. So I believe people will still come out to support her," stated Kim McAdams, an Iowa voter, in a conversation with CNN at a Haley event on Tuesday.
Doug Stout, a committed Republican voter in Iowa, recognized that the weather may cause issues for some, but he anticipated that as long as there is no snow in the hours leading up to the caucus locations opening, turnout will not be a significant problem.
"[Inclement weather] can make it more challenging, especially for elderly individuals. It becomes very difficult for them to go out and caucus on a cold, stormy winter night, especially when the temperatures drop below zero. If we also have a snowstorm on top of those temperatures, it's likely to reduce voter turnout," Stout told CNN. "Otherwise, I don't think it will have much of an impact if you've already made plans to go. There's also the competition from an NFL playoff game that night, so it's uncertain what will affect turnout. But I believe people will show up. Iowans, as you know, understand how crucial this is and they take it very seriously."
AFP Action, the Koch-backed super PAC supporting Haley, will continue to knock on doors until an hour before the caucuses on Monday night to remind Iowans where to participate and why they should support Nikki Haley, an official from the super PAC told CNN. On Wednesday alone, the group had 150-200 staff and volunteers knocking on doors throughout Iowa, with the aim of knocking on 250,000 doors in the state by caucus night.
"The weather is expected to affect voter turnout, along with other factors such as public sentiment towards the polling numbers in the final days. There are numerous variables at play. Our current focus is to identify as many Haley supporters as possible," explained Drew Klein, AFP Action Senior Advisor in Iowa. "We aim to ensure they understand the significance of their participation, not just for the caucus, but for the entire contest."
Similar to Haley, DeSantis remains confident that the extreme cold will not discourage his supporters.
"We have a significant number of dedicated caucus goers," DeSantis stated during a press call with Iowa media on Monday. "These individuals are true believers and they will definitely be in attendance."
Acknowledging the cold forecast for caucus night on Thursday, he noted that it could potentially set a record.
"I'm urging you to venture out there. I'm asking you to face the elements," he stated during a campaign rally in Ames, Iowa. "I'm asking for your support. And if you can endure some extremely cold weather for a few hours, you'll enable me to serve as your president for the next eight years and transform this country."
However, he acknowledged that the anticipated subzero temperatures might pose a challenge.
DeSantis and his team are confident that their campaign's ground game structure in Iowa is well-designed for success in the upcoming election. David Polyansky, DeSantiss deputy campaign manager, emphasized the importance of organization and the team's determination to outpace their opponents, even in subzero weather conditions.
According to DeSantis campaign manager James Uthmeier, the groundwork for the campaign's grassroots support was established six-plus months ago. He emphasized that the team has coordinated efforts to ensure that people will still turn out to caucus for their candidate, even in challenging conditions such as icy, snowy, or below freezing weather. Uthmeier also stated that the campaign has the infrastructure in place to mobilize voters, even in cold and potentially unsafe conditions.
Never Back Down, a super PAC supporting DeSantis' campaign, highlighted its strong ground game in Iowa.
"We are fully prepared for any challenges on caucus night, including severe weather," stated Dave Vasquez, the national press secretary for Never Back Down, in a statement to CNN. "Our network of precinct captains, volunteers, and supporters has a clear plan for transportation and assistance, regardless of the weather conditions. Over the past nine months, we have built a substantial grassroots presence throughout the state to harness the momentum generated by Gov. DeSantis. Meanwhile, the opposition is still trying to catch up."
Speaking to reporters in Sioux City on Monday, Ramaswamy expressed his belief that the harsh weather could actually work in his favor. He argued that his highly enthusiastic supporters are more likely to brave challenging conditions, giving him an advantage. "I want to learn more about the weather forecast. I mean, look, historically people tend to come out less when it's cold. I think this could benefit us," he stated. "Many of my supporters are not lukewarm, they are highly dedicated."
"I think the Ramaswamy tsunami is not going to be deterred by the cold weather," he added.
