Potential Future Scenario: Will All Japanese People Share the Surname 'Sato' by 2531?
A recent study suggests that Japan may witness a future where all its citizens bear the common surname 'Sato' unless marriage laws undergo significant changes. However, the declining marriage rates and population trends could challenge this projection, raising questions about the likelihood of such a scenario.
A new study suggests that everyone in Japan may eventually have the same surname if the country's restrictive marriage laws remain unchanged. However, the declining marriage rate and rapidly shrinking population could potentially alter this outcome.
In contrast to many other major economies, Japan still mandates that married couples must have the same surname by law. Typically, women take on their husband's last name, and same-sex marriages are not yet recognized in Japan.
There is a growing movement to change the rules regarding surnames in Japan, driven by women's rights advocates and those who want to maintain the diversity of Japanese surnames in a country where a few names are becoming more prevalent.
According to a study conducted by economist Hiroshi Yoshida from Tohoku University in Sendai, if the current rules continue, it is projected that all Japanese people could have the surname Sato by the year 2531.
Myoji Yurai, a company that tracks Japan’s more than 300,000 surnames, reveals that Sato is currently the most common surname in Japan, followed by Suzuki. Takahashi holds the third spot. According to Myoji Yurai's website, about 1.8 million people in Japan, out of a population of 125 million, bear the surname Sato.
Yoshida, whose family name ranks as the 11th most common, was involved in the “Think Name Project”. This group advocates for legal changes that would allow couples to retain both of their last names.
The professor presented his new study on Monday, acknowledging that his prediction would only be accurate if the country can address its current major issue: the decreasing marriage rate.
Official data shows that the number of marriages in Japan dropped by almost 6% in 2023 compared to the previous year, falling below 500,000 for the first time in 90 years. On the other hand, divorces increased by 2.6% last year.
Yoshida mentioned to CNN that the calculation could change if fewer people get married than anticipated.
In his research, Yoshida highlighted that Japan's population may drastically decrease in the next thousand years due to its declining birth rate.
He mentioned in his report that there is a high possibility of the Japanese race becoming extinct.
Last year, government data showed that Japan has the highest proportion of elderly individuals in the world, with 29.1% of the population being 65 years old and above.
Customers are seen shopping for kids clothes at a Toys "R" Us/Babies "R" Us store inside the Aeon Mall Kyoto shopping mall in Kyoto, Japan. The store, managed by Toys "R" Us Japan Ltd., recently reopened after undergoing renovations. A photograph taken on Friday, Oct. 20, 2023, captures the bustling scene. 
Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg/Getty Images
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Japan has been facing a population crisis for years, with the decline starting since the economic boom of the 1980s. The country's fertility rate is currently at 1.3, well below the 2.1 needed to sustain a stable population without immigration. This has led to deaths outnumbering births for over a decade, creating a significant challenge for the leaders of Japan, which is the world's fourth-largest economy.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida issued a warning in January last year about the population crisis, stating that the falling birth rate could lead to difficulties in maintaining social functions.
In many parts of East Asia, names tend to be less varied compared to Western countries. For instance, statistics from 2020 show that approximately 30% of individuals in China have surnames like Wang, Li, Zhang, Liu, or Chen. Moreover, nearly 86% of the population shares only 100 common surnames.
In patrilineal societies, surnames can be lost over time through a naturally occurring phenomenon known as name extinction. This process, also called the Galton-Watson process, occurs as women often take on their husbands' surnames with each new generation.
Editor's P/S:
The impending homogeneity of surnames in Japan, as predicted by the study, highlights the country's restrictive marriage laws. The mandate for married couples to adopt the same surname, typically the husband's, has contributed to the dominance of a few surnames and the potential loss of Japan's rich and diverse naming traditions. Advocates for women's rights and proponents of preserving surname diversity have voiced concerns about this trend, calling for legal changes to allow for the retention of both surnames.
The declining marriage rate and the rapidly shrinking population in Japan add further complexity to the surname issue. The decrease in marriages could potentially slow down the convergence of surnames, while the population decline raises concerns about the long-term viability of the Japanese race. The government's efforts to address the population crisis, including measures to encourage childbirth and immigration, will likely influence the future trajectory of surnames in Japan.
