Potential Escalation: Could Iran be Drawn into a Full-Fledged Conflict with Israel?

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A video of an intriguing incident at Tehran's Azadi stadium after the brutal attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas has surfaced. At this event, where hundreds of soccer fans had gathered to watch a match between Perspolis FC and Gol Gohar Sirjan FC, a chant echoed throughout the stadium in unison: "Insert the Palestinian flag into an uncomfortable place."

The crude demonstration occurred when officials tried to raise a Palestinian flag in the stadium, as a gesture of support for the October 7 attack. However, for the fans, it was seen as an unwelcome intersection of politics and soccer, serving as a stark reminder of the Iranian government's involvement in battles fought in distant arenas.

The attack by Hamas, which the Israeli authorities claim resulted in the death of 1,400 individuals, triggered a fierce aerial campaign on Gaza. According to the health ministry in Hamas-controlled Gaza, this campaign has already claimed the lives of over 7,000 people. Furthermore, there are now concerns that additional conflicts will emerge in the war, including one involving Iran.

Experts warn that although Iran is cautious about getting involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict, it may not have complete control over the independent actions of the militias it supports in the region. As Hamas endures significant losses and the death toll in Gaza rises, Iran's influence may be limited.

A member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is seen guarding two Iranian Kheibar Shekan Ballistic missiles in the heart of Tehran. This occurs as protesters wave flags of Iran and Syria during a rally held to mark International Quds Day, also known as Jerusalem Day, on April 29, 2022.

Iranian-backed militias in the Middle East are poised to intensify their assaults on US forces, according to intelligence reports. Sima Shine, the director of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, highlights the shared anti-Israel stance among these groups as a common link to Iran. However, Shine emphasizes that Iran does not exercise complete control over the militias' actions, despite its varying degrees of influence.

Iran has intensified its verbal attacks against its main adversary, despite initially denying any involvement in the killings following the October 7 attack. Tehran, though it initially commended the operation, quickly distanced itself from any responsibility. According to CNN, initial US intelligence indicated that Iranian officials were taken by surprise by the Hamas attack, implying that Tehran was not directly involved in its planning, resourcing, or approval.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian cautioned that the bombardment of Gaza by Israel may lead to significant ramifications, emphasizing that if Israel does not cease its airstrikes, it is highly likely that numerous other conflicts will arise. He conveyed this possibility to Al Jazeera, sharing that it is increasingly becoming a more probable course of action.

Abdollahian stated on Monday that two messages regarding the escalation in the region had been received from the US by Iran. He mentioned that the first message conveyed the disinterest of the United States in expanding the war, while the second message requested Iran to exercise self-restraint and encourage other countries and parties to do the same. Abdollahian did not provide details on the method and timing of the message delivery.

He added that while the US says it wants to de-escalate, it has contradicted itself by continuing to support Israel.

Palestinians inspect the damage of destroyed buildings following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City on Friday.

Abed Khaled/AP

Proxies have their own strategic calculations

According to Trita Parsi, the vice-president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, DC, there is a lack of interest or intention from Iran, the US, or Israel to engage in a larger conflict. However, he warns that if Washington fails to control Israel, it could unintentionally contribute to rising tensions in the region.

Last week, US President Joe Biden reassured Israel of his ongoing support, causing Arab sentiment in the region to become more intense and leading to widespread protests against Israeli and American policies. According to Parsi, Hamas is the only party with a vested interest in escalating the conflict, as a larger war could potentially benefit them. In the absence of US intervention to restrain Israel, many regional actors may feel compelled to intervene due to their own strategic calculations.

"With Israel mobilizing 300,000 troops, there is a strong possibility that Hezbollah will not simply assume that their intentions are solely focused on combating Hamas," he stated. Additionally, he noted that Hezbollah will consider the risk of Israel targeting their group as well. As a formidable regional force backed by Iran, Hezbollah has engaged in clashes with the Israeli military following the Hamas attack on October 7th. While the fighting has been localized along the Lebanon-Israel border, it marks the most intense conflict since the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah."

Israel's defense minister recently stated that they have no intention of engaging in another conflict with Hezbollah. Despite this, Israel has declared a closed military zone within a 4-kilometer radius near its border and has evacuated residents from 28 communities situated within 2 kilometers of the Lebanese border.

However, it should be noted that Hezbollah's influence extends beyond Lebanon. The group also collaborates with Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria, a region where the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights acts as a barrier between Israel and fighters aligned with Tehran.

Hezbollah members take part in a military exercise during a media tour in Aaramta, Lebanon on May 21, 2023.

Aziz Taher/Reuters

What to know about Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed group on Israels border

The Lebanese group maintains its own communication channels with Hamas, as revealed in a statement by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. On Wednesday, Nasrallah held a meeting with senior officials from Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, although the location was not disclosed. The statement shared that the meeting aimed to assess the necessary actions for the resistance axis parties to secure a genuine victory for Gaza and Palestine, while putting an end to the treacherous and brutal aggression against their people.

As the Hamas-Israel conflict persists, skirmishes have extended into Syria and Iraq, resulting in multiple drone attacks by Iran-backed militias on US forces. Recent reports from CNN indicate that these same groups could potentially intensify their actions amidst the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas.

The United States remains vigilant in cautioning Tehran against exploiting the current situation or provoking its proxies to further escalate tensions. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called upon the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday to issue a warning to Iran regarding any additional involvement.

"Send a clear message to Iran and its proxies, both publicly and privately, through all available channels: Refrain from escalating the conflict with Israel. Take no action against Israel's allies," Blinken emphasized, emphasizing that a larger-scale confrontation would have catastrophic consequences, not only for Palestinians and Israelis, but also for people throughout the region and indeed, globally.

Israeli soldiers refuel their Merkava tank near the southern Israeli city of Sderot on Monday.

Thomas Coex/AFP/Getty Images

The US conducted airstrikes on Thursday in eastern Syria, targeting two facilities associated with Iranian-backed militias. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed the strikes, which were in response to recent drone and rocket attacks on US forces in the area. The facilities that were targeted have been utilized by Iran's IRGC and related groups. According to Shine from the INSS, Iran does not desire a direct conflict with Israel as it would inevitably entail a confrontation with the US. Rather, Iran prefers to engage through its proxies.

But that may not play out exactly how Iran wants, added Shine, who previously served in the Israeli intelligence community for most of her career.

On March 8, 2023, an aerial photograph was captured, revealing The Pentagon, which serves as the headquarters for the US Department of Defense. Situated in Arlington County, it is positioned across the Potomac River, neighboring Washington, DC.

The United States has conducted strikes on two facilities in Syria that are associated with Iranian-backed militias. These strikes were carried out in response to a series of attacks on US forces in the Middle East. During an interview with CNN, it was emphasized that Iran needs to consider the fact that the world does not operate based on its own desires or decisions. The interviewee noted that if Iran relies heavily on its proxy groups, it may inadvertently find itself involved in an unwanted war.

Parsi from the Quincy Institute stated that despite this, the Iranian government is actively getting its population ready for conflict. Iranian media is abuzz with reports about the Gaza war, showcasing solidarity with Palestinians from officials belonging to various political factions in Iran.

Parsi mentioned that efforts are being made to shape public perception, attributing the potential conflict as a consequence of Israeli actions, aided by American support. This suggests that the Iranian government is apprehensive about the public response to their direct involvement in a war.

Even if there were a widening conflict, which has not yet reached the level of direct engagement between the US and Iran but is limited to proxy warfare between Iranian allies and Israel, it would create a highly unstable situation, according to the speaker. The current scenario is already beyond anyone's control, making it difficult to prevent further escalation. Stay informed about the major developments and trends in the Middle East and their implications for your world by subscribing to CNN's Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter. Sign up here.