Polls show Trump leading in Michigan and Georgia with majority holding negative views

Former President Donald Trump holds the advantage over President Joe Biden in the crucial battleground states of Michigan and Georgia, according to recent CNN polls conducted by SSRS. The majority of voters in both states express negative views of Biden's job performance, policy positions, and sharpness. In Georgia, where Biden narrowly won in 2020, voters prefer Trump (49%) over Biden (44%) in a hypothetical two-way presidential matchup. In Michigan, which Biden won by a wider margin, Trump has 50% support compared to Biden's 40%, with 10% indicating they wouldn't support either candidate. In both states, the number of voters who wouldn't support either candidate is significant, and in some cases, larger than the margin between Biden and Trump.

The most recent occupants of the White House are the top candidates for their parties in the upcoming presidential election, with Biden leading in the polls for the Democrats and Trump ahead of his GOP rivals. Trump's lead over Biden is due to support from voters who did not vote in 2020, favoring Trump by 26 points in Georgia and 40 points in Michigan. Voters who did cast a ballot in 2020 favored Biden, but now lean towards Trump for the 2024 election, with Biden retaining fewer of his previous supporters compared to Trump.

The numbers suggest potential challenges for both candidates throughout the lengthy campaign. Trump's advantage relies on his ability to maintain support among a fickle, politically disengaged group and persuade them to vote, while Biden must regain the support of disenchanted former backers who show little enthusiasm for his reelection bid.

Biden's difficulties in both states are evident in voters' perceptions of his presidential performance, and their opinions on how his policy positions, understanding of their issues, stamina, and sharpness do not align with their ideal image of a president.

Only 35% in Michigan and 39% in Georgia approve of Biden's job performance, with majorities in both states saying his policies have worsened economic conditions in the country (54% in Georgia, 56% in Michigan). The numbers partially reflect softness among his base, with about one-quarter of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters in each state disapproving of Biden, and a little more than 4 in 10 saying his policies have not helped the country's economy. Biden's campaign is working to sell voters on the success of his economic agenda, recently launching an ad in Michigan focused on small businesses and the middle class.

More trouble spots for Biden with young voters

The survey also reveals a lack of agreement among voters in both states regarding America's handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict, a matter that has caused division within the Democratic Party. More progressive and younger Democrats are urging Biden to push for a ceasefire. In general, approximately 4 out of 10 individuals in each state believe that the US is providing the right level of assistance to Israel. About a third of respondents feel that the US is offering too much support, while roughly a quarter believe it is doing too little. However, around half of voters under the age of 35 in both states think that the US is offering too much support (49% in Michigan, 46% in Georgia), a percentage that is more than 20 points higher than those aged 50 or older (23% in both states).

The majority of voters in both Michigan and Georgia believe that 81-year-old Biden does not possess the qualities they are seeking in a president, whether it be related to his policy positions (57% in Michigan, 56% in Georgia), his ability to empathize with the problems of people like them (60% in Michigan, 56% in Georgia), or his mental acuity and endurance (69% in Michigan, 66% in Georgia).

In comparison, fewer voters in each state feel that 77-year-old Trump does not meet their expectations for a president on these same measures. However, Trump does worse than Biden on temperament, with 57% in Michigan and 58% in Georgia expressing that the former president lacks the temperament they desire, compared to about half who say the same about Biden.

Even among those who claim to support Biden or Trump in a 2024 matchup, doubts about each candidate are prevalent. Fewer than a third of Biden's supporters in each state consider him to be the perfect fit in terms of policy positions, ability to understand their problems, or sharpness and stamina, with fewer than half saying the same about his temperament. However, the majority of Biden supporters express that Trump does not possess the qualities they are seeking. Trump supporters also hold unfavorable views of Biden; approximately half or more describe Trump as their ideal candidate in terms of policy, understanding their problems, and sharpness and stamina, although only 29% in Michigan and 34% in Georgia view his temperament as ideal.

Younger voters in both states are particularly unlikely to see Biden as embodying their vision of a president, with only 9% of voters under 45 stating he is exactly what they would like to see in a president in terms of policy positions, and only 11% in Georgia and 9% in Michigan saying he is exactly what they want in terms of his ability to understand the problems of people like them. Younger voters in both states also lean towards Trump in a hypothetical matchup (50% to 40% among voters under 45 in Georgia, 49% to 38% in Michigan). This is partly due to defections among Democratic-aligned younger voters. In both states, Biden garners more than 90% of the vote among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters aged 45 or older. However, he only holds 78% support among younger Democratic-aligned voters in Michigan and 80% among that group in Georgia.

Georgia voters largely support the charges brought against Trump in Fulton County's case over 2020 election interference, with 52% approving and 47% disapproving. 47% believe that if proven true, those charges should disqualify Trump from the presidency, and an additional 14% see them as casting doubts on his fitness for the job. In Michigan, a similar share of voters - 46% - say that if the criminal charges Trump faces relating to efforts to overturn the last presidential election are true, they are disqualifying. Another 14% believe they would, at a minimum, cast doubts on his fitness for the job.

However, likely GOP primary voters mostly express that even if true, the criminal charges Trump is facing related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election are not relevant to his fitness for the presidency (64% in Michigan and 70% in Georgia feel that way). Most of those who say they would support Trump in a general election also share this sentiment, although in both states, 27% of those who back Trump against Biden say that a Trump conviction would cast at least some doubts on his fitness to retake the Oval Office.

Haley in tight race for second place in GOP primary but holds wider lead over Biden in hypothetical matchup

The presidential primaries in Michigan are scheduled for February 27, while Georgia's primaries are set for March 12. Donald Trump's lead among likely GOP primary voters in each state reflects his performance in national primary polling, with 58% in Michigan and 55% in Georgia stating he is their first choice for the nomination. Following closely behind, there is a close competition for a distant second, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 15% and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley at 13% in Michigan, and both tied at 17% in Georgia. All other GOP candidates included in the polls received single-digit support.

The GOP field may narrow after the initial contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. In both states surveyed, potential one-on-one matchups with either DeSantis or Haley show Trump gaining more support rather than a tighter race.

Potential GOP primary voters in both states show little concern about Trump's electability. Sixty-six percent of potential GOP voters in Michigan and 65% in Georgia believe that Trump is the candidate with the best chance of winning their state next November. Nearly all of his supporters, as well as a significant minority of those not backing him, see him as the most electable candidate.

In hypothetical general election matchups with Haley, Biden is behind among registered voters in both states. Haley leads with 49% to Biden's 43% in Georgia, and with 50% to Biden's 38% in Michigan. Against DeSantis, Biden trails in Michigan (49% DeSantis to 42% Biden), but performs better in Georgia, with the president holding 48% to DeSantis's 45%, resulting in no clear leader between the two.

When two third-party or independent candidates, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, are mentioned by name in a potential matchup against Biden and Trump, Trump maintains a lead over Biden, slightly increasing his margin to 8 points in Georgia, while reducing his advantage to 8 points in Michigan. Kennedy and West together garner 26% in Michigan and 21% in Georgia, with most of that support going to Kennedy (20% in Michigan and 15% in Georgia). This finding likely overstates the share of solid support for a challenger outside the main two parties, but nevertheless highlights the degree of dissatisfaction with the two leading candidates.

Voters side with Democrats on abortion, while GOP enjoys enthusiasm advantage

Amidst three key issues expected to be pivotal in the 2024 campaign, Democratic candidates have the support of voters in both states on the topic of abortion, whereas voters lean towards the GOP on immigration. In Michigan, voters are evenly divided on which party they associate more with in terms of safeguarding democracy in the country, while in Georgia, Democrats hold a 4-point advantage on this issue. Approximately one-quarter of voters in both states express mistrust towards both parties on these issues.

Approximately 70% of registered voters in Michigan and 68% in Georgia are somewhat confident that votes in their state will be accurately cast and counted in the next election. About 60% of voters in each state believe that Biden legitimately won enough votes to secure the presidency in 2020. However, around two-thirds of Republican-aligned voters in each state doubt the legitimacy of Biden's win. It is important to note that there is no evidence of election fraud that would have affected the outcome of the 2020 election.

Trump's primary supporters are particularly distrustful of the election system, with over 80% in each state unjustifiably claiming that Biden did not legitimately win the presidency in 2020. This view is only held by about one-third of likely GOP primary voters not supporting Trump in each state. Additionally, more than half of Trump primary supporters have little to no confidence that votes will be accurately cast and counted in their state in the next election, a concern that is not shared by many other likely GOP primary voters.

In Georgia, 61% of registered voters and 57% in Michigan are very motivated to participate in next year's election. In Michigan, Republican-aligned voters are 5 points more likely than Democratic-aligned voters to be extremely motivated, while in Georgia, that GOP edge is a larger 13 points.

Just over half (53%) of Michigan's registered voters are satisfied with the candidates they have to choose from, while 62% of Georgia voters are content. In both states, Republican-aligned voters are notably more likely than Democratic-aligned voters to express satisfaction with their choices.

CNN conducted online and telephone polls in Michigan and Georgia with SSRS. In Michigan, 1,197 registered voters were surveyed from November 29 to December 6, and in Georgia, 1,068 registered voters were surveyed from November 30 to December 7. The surveys included oversamples of likely Republican primary voters and younger voters to better understand views among those groups. Results among the oversampled groups were weighted to reflect their actual share of all registered voters within the overall results. The margin of sampling error for the full sample in Michigan is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, and 3.3 points for results in Georgia.