Political Gamble: House Democrats Debate McCarthy's Fate

House Democrats are currently discussing how to handle a potentially chaotic scenario: the unprecedented scenario of Speaker Kevin McCarthy potentially losing his position through a floor vote. Although no decisions have been made, certain moderates within the party are indicating privately that they would consider making a deal to support McCarthy and prevent a right-wing uprising, on the condition that he satisfies their own requirements.

Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has refrained from publicly expressing his stance on how he would like his members to handle a challenge to McCarthy's speakership, deeming it hypothetical at this stage. However, confidentially, Jeffries has advised his members to maintain their composure, as it is understood that Democrats would benefit from keeping their options open during the ongoing government funding dispute.

"If Democrats are requested to offer assistance, it cannot solely be a result of goodwill," shared Democratic Representative Dan Kildee of Michigan with CNN. "If Kevin cannot effectively govern with just his party, which is evident, and he wishes to engage in a discussion with us on how to address this, we will engage in a policy discourse."

Asked recently by CNN if he would need to rely on Democrats to help save him, McCarthy would not say.

"I am not worried about that," he said.

Private discussions have gained momentum lately, with a few staunch GOP members opposing a series of spending bills that could potentially lead to a government shutdown. Additionally, any action taken by the speaker to propose a short-term spending bill with Democrats could result in the end of his speakership. If McCarthy's position were to face a motion to vacate, supported by five Republicans, Democrats would play a significant role in determining McCarthy's future.

However, Democratic members emphasized to CNN that assistance from their party would be conditional. They stated that in order to save his speakership, McCarthy must agree to a bipartisan agreement that prevents a government shutdown. At present, Republicans are still in the process of reaching a consensus on a GOP plan to fund the government, and McCarthy has not yet shown readiness to pursue this approach. According to one Democratic member, Democrats should be actively preparing for the potential of significant disturbances.

One potential approach being considered by Democrats is to vote "present" or vote to completely reject the motion if a proposal to remove McCarthy is presented on the floor. Opting for a "present" vote would alter the required number of votes needed for McCarthy's critics to oust him, thereby making the process more challenging as it would necessitate a majority of those voting in order to achieve success.

The North Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, on November 18, 2022. - (Photo by Mandel NGAN / AFP) (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)

Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

The White House has issued a firm warning regarding the impending government shutdown. Democrats find themselves in a difficult position, as they want to avoid appearing as if they are supporting McCarthy, particularly after his initiation of an impeachment inquiry against President Joe Biden. Supporting McCarthy could result in criticism from the left. However, Democrats also worry about the potential consequences of an alternative situation, such as a government shutdown or the possibility of a more conservative lawmaker taking over as speaker if McCarthy is removed. This could potentially paralyze the House if no candidate can secure the necessary 218 votes to be elected speaker.

One Democrat expressed concern about the possibility of the person in question presenting something unfavorable and the Freedom Caucus responding with hostility. In such a scenario, there would be less motivation to support him. However, some individuals may still anticipate that an alternative could pose even greater challenges. Another member pointed out that if he is open to collaborating on various matters, there will be sufficient support to safeguard him.

Its uncertain when or if McCarthys opponents will attempt to address the issue. Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, one of McCarthys most outspoken critics, did not specify on Wednesday when he plans to take action to remove McCarthy as speaker. However, he cautioned McCarthy against collaborating with Democrats and warned that House Republicans who cooperate with Democrats to avert a shutdown would be jeopardizing their own "political death warrant."

Video Ad Feedback

'Move the f****** spending bill': See Gaetz's response to McCarthy

02:21

- Source:

Gaetz warned that if Speaker McCarthy depends on Democrats to pass a continuing resolution, he would likely be swiftly replaced as House Speaker. He privately informed his colleagues that seven Republicans would vote against any short-term measures, which, combined with unanimous opposition from Democrats, could effectively defeat a conservative proposal.

Less than two weeks remain before a government shutdown, and Democrats are closely observing the actions of the Speaker regarding spending. They are assessing whether McCarthy is willing to abandon his conservative stance in order to pursue a bipartisan agreement on spending, particularly in relation to the continuing resolution or CR, which is currently causing a shortage of resources on Capitol Hill. Democrats are taking this into account when considering how they would respond on the floor if a motion to vacate were to be introduced.

According to one Democrat, "If we were genuinely included in the deal, like actively involved in a sensible agreement on the CR and budget, I believe there would be a substantial group of individuals willing to vote present."

Meanwhile, frustration within the GOP has reached an alarming level, prompting private discussions between moderate Democrats and Republicans regarding a bipartisan funding arrangement. The bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus has made significant progress in developing a framework for a plan, and Jeffries attended their meeting on Wednesday.

Following the meeting, Jeffries emphasized the need for a bipartisan consensus that aligns with the previously negotiated provisions in the debt ceiling package. This agreement was initially brokered by McCarthy but was later abandoned due to pressure from the more conservative wing of his party, who demanded further budget reductions.

"We must reach a bipartisan consensus that aligns with the previous agreements," he stated.

However, the procedure for introducing such a bill in the legislative session is intricate. One potential approach is for members of the Republican Party in the group to endorse a discharge petition, a procedural mechanism that is complex and time-consuming. If at least five Republicans do so, it would initiate a process that could compel the bill to be considered for a vote without the involvement of McCarthy. Nevertheless, given the current circumstances, this process is likely to take too long to prevent a government shutdown.

Members are also engaging in conversations regarding alternative procedural choices with the House parliamentarian, according to lawmakers who spoke with CNN.

"Under no circumstances can failure be considered. We are firmly committed to exhaust all possible measures in order to avert a government shutdown," stated Republican Representative Don Bacon, who represents a politically diverse district in Nebraska.

Bacon cautioned that he would seek compromise with Democrats in the event of a deadlock with staunch conservative individuals.

"If necessary, we will have to collaborate with colleagues on the opposing side and accomplish the task. I believe individuals have understood this statement," he expressed.

However, the prevailing belief is that in order to prevent a government shutdown, the speaker must prioritize time and detach himself from his more extreme supporters, instead opting to collaborate with moderate individuals. By doing so, Democrats could come to McCarthy's aid and prevent the impending vote to remove him from office that would result from this situation. Those who propose this idea also suggest that the assistance provided by Democrats to McCarthy may have further implications.

"We are currently engaged in extensive discussions on how to reimagine and improve this place. It is clear that the current system is not effective," the member stated. "I don't believe that the solution can simply be based on a transactional approach where I get my vote and then everything is resolved, especially because trust in him is lacking. It encompasses various aspects such as committee presentations, the procedure for bringing bills to the floor, and the decision-making process behind them."

However, even if there was an opportunity to negotiate with McCarthy and gain some concessions, it is unlikely to satisfy all Democrats. Supporting McCarthy could potentially lead to primary challenges in their respective districts for Democrats, especially considering the loss of goodwill from some Democrats when McCarthy initiated an impeachment inquiry into Biden."

House Oversight Chair Rep. James Comer speaks to reporters on his way to a closed-door GOP caucus meeting at the US Capitol on January 10 in Washington, DC.

Drew Angerer/Getty Images North America/Getty Images

House Oversight panel set to hold first Biden impeachment inquiry hearing September 28

"There is absolutely no chance that I would vote for the speaker. I am at a loss for words. Has he done anything reasonable? Has he made any efforts to bring the House together and work cooperatively?" stated Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida to CNN. "Honestly, I currently cannot envision a scenario where he would deserve my support, but I am also open to the possibility."

Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota recently stated that he and other Democrats would not come to McCarthy's aid if his own party introduced a motion to remove him from office.

"If you had asked me about two months ago, I would have wholeheartedly agreed. However, I now find his behavior to be lacking principled values and ultimately detrimental to the country," he expressed regretfully.

Later on, he added, "I empathize with the predicament he faces, but these are crucial moments that require individuals to decide. Will they cater to the desires of a select few or prioritize the well-being of the majority?"

Numerous Democrats contend that previous Republican speakers, such as Paul Ryan or John Boehner, might have been worth preserving. However, they assert that McCarthy is an exception.

If someone were to challenge McCarthy, it would likely only require a small number of Democrats to protect him. In addition to casting a "present" vote, they could simply vote to set aside the resolution – a procedural maneuver that would effectively terminate the endeavor. Nevertheless, leaving members to face potential backlash alone could pose political risks for moderate politicians. Conversely, voting in complete Democratic unity could provide a shield for members against the party's base.

Democratic Rep. Richard Neal of Massachusetts informed CNN that we should establish a definite party stance on this matter as it remains unresolved and is still in a state of development. Numerous Democrats are currently contemplating their choices.

"You know there are so many variables right now, I really dont have an answer," Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon of Pennsylvania told CNN.