Opinion: Which experts accurately forecasted 2023?
Get exclusive insights into 2024 predictions by CNN Opinion contributors From the potential Mideast Peace Prize to the fate of America's favorite celebrity couple, Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce Don't miss out on expert forecasts for the presidential election, award-winning movies, albums, and shows Discover what lies ahead in a world that seems eerily familiar to 2020
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The start of a new year brings a sense of new beginnings, resolutions, and interest in what lies ahead in the coming year. Once again, a group of CNN Opinion contributors have bravely shared their predictions for some of the most anticipated events in 2024. We asked them a range of questions, from the Super Bowl winner to the next elected president. You can read the full feature here.
Prior to discussing their 2024 predictions, let's review their predictions for 2023. Our contributors had a difficult time predicting which TV series would receive the top awards this year. Only Elliot Williams and Jeff Yang accurately predicted that "Succession" would win the Emmy for best drama, and none of our contributors guessed that "Ted Lasso" would be named best comedy.
Yangs' predictive abilities also extended to the world of movies, as he and three other contributors (Laura Coates, Dean Obeidallah, and Sara Stewart) accurately predicted that "Everything Everywhere All at Once" would win the Oscar for best picture.
In the realm of sports, our forecasters had a difficult time predicting the year's outcomes. Not a single contributor predicted that the Texas Rangers would win the World Series, and only two (Paul Callan and Coates) correctly chose the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl.
2020 déjà vu
In the realm of politics, our contributors truly stood out. Almost all of them predicted that President Joe Biden would emerge as the Democratic presidential nominee for 2024. When it came to the top GOP candidate, opinions were divided between former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Among the accurate predictions were those of Jill Filipovic and Frida Ghitis, who both anticipated that 2024 would bear a striking resemblance to 2020.
Phil Hands/Tribune Content Agency
Filipovic and Ghitis were in agreement that Biden will win the 2024 election. Ghitis stated that unenthusiastic Democrats will see Biden as the better choice over Trump. The majority of our contributors also predict that Biden will be reelected, though a few believe that Haley or Trump will secure the presidency.
There was little consensus among contributors regarding which party will control each chamber of Congress after the 2024 election. While some believe that each party will control one chamber, a few predict that Democrats will control both. Only Allison Hope and Yang predict that the GOP will win a majority of seats in both the House and Senate.
The question of who will reside in the White House will have a significant impact beyond our borders, according to Ghitis. She anticipates potential geopolitical risks the world will face in 2024. "The answer will have severe repercussions across the globe. A second Trump presidency would almost certainly be more extreme on multiple fronts. If Biden is reelected, the chances of restoring global stability are much greater."
A Mideast Peace Prize?
Demonstrators hold a rally demanding a cease fire in Gaza in Washington, DC.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
This year, our contributors found it difficult to predict who will be awarded the prestigious Nobel Peace Prize. Some believe climate leader Nemonte Nenquimo is a strong contender, while others, like Sara Stewart, are hoping for Greta Thunberg to win.
Ghitis and Alice Stewart think that President Volodymyr Zelensky's courageous leadership during the war in Ukraine makes him a likely candidate for the prize. On the other hand, Don Lincoln predicts that the prize will go to jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
The most common prediction among experts is that someone involved in the efforts to bring peace to the Middle East will be the Person of the Year. However, there is no agreement on who that person will be. Cupp and Gene Seymour believe it will be the Qatari negotiators in the Israeli hostage deal, while Megan Ranney predicts Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates, due to his country's role in the Abraham Accords. Hope thinks it will be Israel's opposition leader Benny Gantz. Meanwhile, Thomas believes the winner will be "Whoever manages to mediate a lasting ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war."
Mideast peace will remain a top priority in the new year. Whoever is able to bring about an end to the conflict, "I hope they do so, quickly," said Ranney.
A game of inflation roulette
The economy was the main topic of 2023, as interest rates continued to rise in the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation. With many economists predicting a looming recession, the country held its breath to see if the Fed could stabilize the economy without a significant downturn.
In welcome news to many investors, inflation has cooled and the economy has avoided a recession, causing the stock market to surge. However, the future of inflation remains uncertain. Optimistic experts like Ghitis believe that the average inflation rate will drop to 2.6% next year. Hope, Jackson, and Ranney are even more positive, forecasting a further drop to 2.5%. In contrast, Seymour is less confident in his prediction, comparing it to throwing darts at a board and eventually settling on a prediction of 2%. On the other hand, Filipovic anticipates an average inflation rate of 4.0%, and Jones believes it will hover around 4.5%.
Little optimism for the Eagles redemption
Inflation is a concern not only for consumers but also for political figures. Lanhee Chen, a fellow at the Hoover Institution, highlighted the importance of Bidens messaging on inflation for the 2024 presidential campaign. He emphasized the need for Biden to showcase his achievements without prematurely claiming victory over inflation and recession battles.
Our contributors predict redemption for the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2024 Super Bowl.
Ross D. Franklin/AP
Though our contributors are experts in politics, culture and world affairs, they are also passionate about their sports teams.
The Atlanta Braves, Alice Stewart's hometown team, is the favorite to win the World Series this year, with the Mets and Yankees tied for the second spot. Thomas supports the Mets, while Yang is sticking with the Yankees out of loyalty.
As for the Super Bowl, the prognosticators are once again backing the Philadelphia Eagles, the same team they predicted to win last year. The Eagles received the majority of the predictions, largely due to the promise of their quarterback Jalen Hurts. This year, Sara Stewart is the only one of the group willing to bet on the Eagles for a second time, while others who didn't choose them last year are now showing support. This shows that our predictors don't quickly abandon a failed prediction.
Cupp and Alice Stewart are now predicting that the Kansas City Chiefs will win for the second year in a row, while Jones and Yang are banking on the San Francisco 49ers. Thomas is going with the Miami Dolphins, citing their consistency and the Eagles' performance last year.
When it comes to the 2024 summer Olympics in Paris, there is a strong consensus on which team will bring home the most gold medals. All contributors, except for Kent Sepkowitz and Seymour, are choosing Team USA, with the outliers predicting China. The majority also believes that Simone Biles will have an outstanding year and win the most gold medals.
We just made a night of good TVâ¦
Most of our oracles think "Succession" will win the Emmy for best drama.
HBO
Roman Roy referred to ATN, the fictional news network central to the show "Succession." According to our experts, binge-watching the HBO hit series makes for an excellent night of television. The majority of our contributors firmly believe that "Succession" will take home the Emmy for best drama. However, Jackson and Obeidallah, outliers, predict that the award will go to "White Lotus" and "The Crown," respectively. (Both CNN and HBO are owned by Warner Bros. Discovery.)
Many TV shows reach their peak in their first season, but "Succession" defied this trend and continued to improve over time, leaving fans saddened by its conclusion. Writer Ani Bundel noted that ending "Succession" at a point when each episode was better than the last was a bold move. With its strong finish, it serves as a reminder that knowing when to end a truly great series is a hallmark of its quality.
The contributor's favorite for best comedy is "Ted Lasso," but Yang believes that "The Bear" will take the Emmy this year. Yang had supported "The Bear" last year as well, although he questioned the category in which it was nominated, wondering if it should be considered a comedy or a drama.
Will Oppenheimer be Kenough?
"Oppenheimer" and "Barbie" stole the cinematic spotlight in 2023.
Universal Pictures, Warner Bros. Discovery
In the realm of cinema, all attention is currently focused on the highly anticipated opening day double feature that has captured the nation's interest. Approximately half of our experts predict that "Oppenheimer" will clinch the best picture award, but a significant number have also voiced their support for "Barbie." According to Seymour, the Academy Award will go to "Oppenheimer" under conventional circumstances (and "Barbie" if not).
This tandem of films has sparked more than just Oscar speculation; their premieres have provoked an abundance of thought-provoking articles. Sara Stewart remarked, "Barbie's appeal lies in the fact that she can embody any role... which is precisely why she continues to resonate with children and why adults across generations are eagerly anticipating Gerwig's film." (It is worth noting that "Barbie" was distributed by Warner Bros., a subsidiary of CNN's parent company.)
Its Taylor Swifts world and were just living in it
"Killers of the Flower Moon" is the only other film that our contributors believe has a chance at an Oscar. Among the group, Lincoln and Sepkowitz, who are both science experts, are among those who are predicting that the Martin Scorsese masterpiece will take home the prize.
The estimated economic impact of The Eras Tour was a staggering $5 billion.
Marcelo Endelli/TAS23/Getty Images
Taylor Swift was the ultimate celebrity this year, selling out stadiums during The Eras Tour in the US, releasing two albums including Speak Now (Taylors Version) which topped the Billboard 200, setting records for the highest grossing concert film in its opening weekend, and being named TIME Magazine's person of the year. And on top of all that, she became a billionaire.
Swift's influence went beyond just the music industry, with The Eras Tour estimated to have a huge economic impact of $5 billion, according to the research company QuestionPro. Yang noted, "No one does capitalism like Taylor Swift." It's no wonder that most of our predictors are betting on her album "Midnights" to win the Grammy for album of the year. "This is her time, let's wrap it up for her," said Filipovic. According to Obeidallah, "Even if she doesn't win the Grammy, she's already won 2023 and 2024!"
Ranney, however, fought the urge to bank on Swift for the Grammy, saying, "I adore T Swift, but SZAs album SOS deserves this win."
Its gonna be forever, or its gonna go down in flames
Clay Jones
Swift's year was marked by another significant event: her relationship with Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. In contrast to her famously secretive romance with Joe Alwyn, Swift and Kelce did not shy away from the spotlight. Nevertheless, journalist Frankie de la Cretaz pointed out that "The inundation of podcasts, social media posts, and in-game references to a potential relationship between the singer and the tight end before there was any encouragement or confirmation on her end seems to completely disrespect her wishes and boundaries."
Filipovic, however, found something refreshing in the couple's dynamic. "In a moment of what feels like peak male insecurity, the Taylor-Travis relationship is a useful model: two ambitious adults, both excellent at what they do, but the female half of the couple is both more successful and a higher earner, by a huge margin—and the male half seems totally fine with that."
The future of Swelce - or is it Traylor? Or Tayvis? - is viewed optimistically by Jackson and Obeidallah, who predict the couple will be married by the end of 2024. Ranney and Alice Stewart also foresee a strong future for the couple, with a possible swift engagement. However, the consensus among remaining contributors is that Swift and Kelce won't last. Despite differing opinions, one thing seems certain: our love of music, sports, and celebrity relationships will continue to unite us in the year ahead, as Jane Carr highlighted in our year in culture newsletter earlier this month.
