Opinion: Reasons Democrats Should Remain Hopeful Despite Concerning New Polls about Biden
Democrats need not despair over recent polls showing Biden trailing Trump in battleground states, but should acknowledge their concerns Stay informed with our free weekly newsletter
New poll results from The New York Times and Siena College reveal that President Joe Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump in most of the six battleground states tested. These results are not favorable.
Dean Obeidallah
CNN
In fact, these polls about a hypothetical matchup between the two are alarming and a bit distressing. But they should not cause panic.
Let's begin with the Times/Siena polling, which is likely causing concern for many in Biden's camp. It's not just the main finding that the president is behind in crucial battleground states like Nevada, Arizona, and even Michigan, where Biden is currently trailing Trump by 5 percentage points, despite winning by almost 3 points in 2020.
According to the Times, Biden's multiracial coalition that played a crucial role in his victory is showing signs of weakening, with support decreasing among Black and Hispanic voters. Additionally, Biden is also experiencing a decline in support among voters under the age of 30.
Former President Donald Trump, left, and President Joe Biden.
Reuters
Trump leads Biden in 4 key swing states, new polling finds
And in terms of the economy, an issue that often plays a crucial role in determining a president's likelihood of being reelected, the polls reveal "the largest disparity compared to any other issue." Among voters, 59% trust Trump to handle economic matters, while only 37% trust Biden.
You might then ask: Why is there no cause for alarm? There are a few reasons. Firstly, President Barack Obama also faced significant disapproval ratings in the year leading up to the 2012 election (although not as high as Biden's). Additionally, early national polls indicated a tight race between Obama and Mitt Romney, who ultimately became the Republican presidential nominee. Although Obama was leading in some surveys at the time, a CNN/ORC poll conducted in November 2011 showed Romney with a 4-point advantage.
Several articles during that time hinted at potential failures for Obama's re-election, such as The New York Times' analysis titled "Is Obama Toast?," PBS's report on young people's skepticism towards Obama's chances of re-election, and the left-leaning Brookings Institution's piece entitled "One Year to Go: President Barack Obama's Uphill Battle for Reelection in 2012." Additionally, two prominent Democratic pollsters wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, urging Obama to step aside and allow Hillary Clinton to become the 2012 Democratic nominee, as they believed she had a higher chance of winning.
In the 2012 election, Obama emerged victorious with a lead of almost 5 million votes and a commanding 332 to 206 votes in the Electoral College. His victory can be attributed to his success in winning several crucial battleground states, a fact highlighted by The New York Times/Siena College surveys.
U.S. President Joe Biden gives a significant televised speech from the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, addressing his strategies for managing the Israel-Hamas conflict, providing humanitarian aid in Gaza, and sustaining support for Ukraine in their conflict with Russia. This momentous event took place on October 19, 2023, and was captured by Jonathan Ernst from Pool/Reuters.
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It is important to acknowledge that Biden and Obama are distinct candidates with different approaches. However, it is instructive to note that Obama's victory largely stemmed from his superior ground game, which ensured that his supporters actually voted. As Obama's former vice president, Biden clearly understands this strategy well. Moreover, with his campaign's ability to raise more funds than Trump's, Biden has ample resources to invest significantly in this pivotal aspect of the campaign.
However, there is an additional advantage for Biden. Despite the worrisome overall statistics, the polls conducted by Times/Siena College provide some encouragement and a strategic path to Biden's triumph.
First and foremost, an analysis conducted by the Times reveals that "the poll indicates that it may not be overly challenging for Mr. Biden to rebuild his successful coalition - at least on a theoretical level." In order to achieve this, Biden must "energize voters from traditional Democratic demographics," who, according to the Times analysis, "are still receptive to Democratic candidates when compared to Mr. Trump in a head-to-head confrontation."
The Times/Siena College polling also provides insight into the issues that can inspire the coalition. On the topic of abortion, voters trust Biden by 9 percentage points. This issue has been known to generate unexpected voter turnout, even in red states, as individuals strive to protect reproductive freedom. Experts have identified these "abortion first" voters as a significant factor in preventing a "red wave" during the 2022 midterm elections.
Republican presidential candidate former US President Donald Trump speaks to guests during a campaign event at the Orpheum Theater on October 29, 2023 in Sioux City, Iowa.
Scott Olson/Getty Images
Trump's immunity defense should be swiftly rejected.
This issue presents a favorable opportunity for Biden in a potential face-off with Trump. Trump's boastful statement, "I successfully ended Roe v. Wade," and his expressed "honor" in doing so, could work in Biden's favor. If Trump becomes the Republican nominee, the Biden campaign is likely to repeatedly feature this quote in their advertisements in key swing states next autumn. Democrats aim to hold the former president responsible for the erosion of women's reproductive rights.
Biden surpasses Trump in gaining trust on the handling of "democracy," based on recent polls. Biden emphasized the importance of democracy during the final weeks of the 2022 midterms. In a September 2022 speech, he cautioned about the extremism of Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans, which poses a threat to the foundations of our republic. Some attribute the Democrats' strong performance in 2022 to Biden's advocacy for democracy. Subscribe to our weekly newsletter for free.
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The positive development is that Biden has stated his commitment to safeguarding our democracy as a key element of his 2024 campaign. During a speech in Arizona in September, he emphasized, "There is a MAGA movement that opposes the fundamental principles of our democracy - this extremist movement."
Nevertheless, due to the significant division within our country, Biden's reelection campaign is set to face challenges. Supporters who wish for Biden to secure victory in 2024 should pay attention to polling data without becoming overly anxious about it.
The Biden campaign needs to do its part in terms of campaigning on the key issues and building an effective ground game. The rest is up to the voters.
