Opinion: A practical yet unattainable route to tranquility

The temporary ceasefire between Hamas and Israel has come to an end, reigniting the devastating conflict that has caused immense suffering on both sides of the Gaza border. The ongoing battles are expected to persist unless influential players in the Middle East and the international community are willing to intervene, apply pressure, and take necessary risks to bring about a resolution.

Frida Ghitis

CNN

Is there a way to stop the carnage? Is there any way to bring an end to this war and open a path to lasting peace?

Yes, there is a solution, although it is extremely difficult and may seem unrealistic. Nonetheless, it is not impossible.

Every proposal for peace between Israelis and Palestinians is fraught with obstacles. Despite this, there are some small reasons for hope. Though faint, they are noteworthy and offer the potential for at least a bit of optimism.

The solution to ending the war, and even the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is not a secret. Negotiators have come close to resolving the decades-long conflict before. Right now, the first priority is addressing Hamas, a terrorist organization that opposes reconciliation between Israelis and Palestinians and is committed to the destruction of Israel.

No country can permit a hostile group backed by a nearly nuclear-armed enemy (in this case, Iran) to govern a territory on its doorstep. Removing Hamas from Gaza by military force is not feasible without worsening the desperate conditions of Gazan civilians.

Allowing Hamas to remain in power would only strengthen its allies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, and bolster Iran and its network of affiliated militias in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and beyond. A Hamas victory would destabilize the region and embolden Iran, as history has shown the consequences of not deterring aggressors.

However, if Hamas were to release the hostages and disarm, this war could come to an end.

On Thursday, October 19, 2023, US President Joe Biden delivered a crucial address to the nation from the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC. During his speech, Biden directly urged the American people to show their support for funding Israel and Ukraine's war efforts, emphasizing the parallel threats posed by Hamas and Russian President Vladimir Putin to US democracy. The photograph was taken by Jonathan Ernst/Reuters/Bloomberg via Getty Images.

Jonathan Ernst/Reuters/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Opinion: Joe Biden is not getting the credit he deserves on foreign policy

Why would Hamas choose to act this way? The group's leaders claim that the people of Gaza, as well as themselves, embrace martyrdom. However, it is evident that Gaza's leaders do not seek death. The possibility of survival would be appealing, especially considering their considerable financial wealth. This leads to another issue - Israel will be hesitant to allow Hamas leaders to escape. Yet, Israel has no assurance that it can completely eradicate the organization.

In order to compel Hamas to depart, Arab and Muslim nations should unite with the international community in applying pressure on the group responsible for initiating this conflict.

Reversing the current efforts for a permanent ceasefire would likely result in Hamas retaining power and launching further attacks. This could potentially lead to a much deadlier war, with the possibility of Hezbollah joining forces with Hamas. If Hamas were to gain further popularity, they may attempt to take control of the West Bank, leading to even greater conflict. Despite the opposition from the current Israeli government, an option for a solution could be reached through restarting negotiations for the establishment of a Palestinian state in exchange for Hamas disarming. The recent massacre of around 1,200 Israelis by Hamas serves as a stark reminder of the seriousness of the "Axis of Resistance" groups in their commitment to destroy Israel and advance Iran's objectives.

The Axis of Resistance should be met by an Alliance of Peacemakers.

A unified effort for peace led by Israel's newfound Arab allies, the countries of the Abraham Accords that established diplomatic relations with Israel through a series of Trump-brokered deals, and possibly more nations joining the cause, in addition to Arab countries that have previously made peace with Israel, could potentially convince Israel that there is a feasible path to both peace and security.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's popularity has plummeted and it is doubtful that he will remain in power for much longer. Even more so after recent reports from The New York Times about Israeli intelligence being aware of an impending Hamas attack and ignoring it. The far-right politicians who were brought into his coalition by Netanyahu are likely to be excluded from the next one. Without him, the governing coalition could potentially include lawmakers who have previously rejected joining the current prime minister, thus eliminating the need for extremist parties to form a governing majority. This presents a potential silver lining for the future.

Families and friends of hostages held in Gaza call for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to bring them home, during a demonstration in Tel Aviv on November 21.

Image by Ahmad Gharabli/AFP/Getty Images

Here's the most optimistic scenario: When Hamas initiated its attack on October 7, it may have anticipated the participation of Hezbollah and possibly even Iran, as well as support from Palestinians in the West Bank and Israel's Arab citizens, who account for approximately 20% of the population. It may also have expected Arab countries with diplomatic ties to Israel to sever those connections.

The event did not occur.

By standing firmly with Israel and deploying the US Navy in the region, President Joe Biden's decision may have prevented Iran and its proxies from intervening. Additionally, Hamas also targeted Arab citizens of Israel, including Druze, Bedouins, and others who are now involved in the conflict.

The Abraham Accords have stood the test as Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates denounced the Hamas attack and the UAE criticized Israel's Gaza campaign for its civilian casualties. Despite this, relations have endured. A senior UAE official stated, "The Abraham Accords are here to stay." Additionally, Saudi Arabia has expressed continued interest in seeking peace with Israel, as reported by the White House.

On October 18, 2023, in Tel Aviv, Israel, photographs of individuals who were taken hostage by Hamas during recent attacks are displayed. Israel is gearing up to invade the Gaza Strip in an effort to eradicate Hamas, the Palestinian militant group responsible for a deadly attack in southern Israel on October 7th. Concerns are mounting about a potential broader war with multiple fronts, including the northern border with Lebanon. Countries have been working to evacuate their citizens from Israel, and Israel has started relocating residents of some communities on its northern border. At the same time, hundreds of thousands of northern Gaza residents have fled to the southern part of the territory in response to Israel's promise to launch a ground invasion. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)

Leon Neal/Getty Images

Opinion: The deep moral dilemma at the heart of the hostage deal

The increase in anti-Israel sentiment in the Arab world in response to Israel's actions in Gaza is undoubtedly causing concern and anxiety among leaders of Arab countries with ties to Israel. However, autocracies, while aware of public opinion, are not bound by it. The Saudi and Emirati monarchies maintain full control over their countries. For now, the popular reaction may only result in a temporary cooling of bilateral relations.

The UAE's and Saudi Arabia's reasons for seeking to enhance their ties with Israel - countering Iran, strengthening their economies, and promoting regional stability - remain unchanged after October 7th.

This is devastating news for Hamas and Iran. Like many others, I believe that one of the objectives behind the Hamas attack was to disrupt the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, this may have backfired and instead, demonstrated the dangerous influence of Iran's proxies in the region, further strengthening Saudi Arabia's motivation to align with Israel to counterbalance Tehran.

A major concern is what will happen in Gaza if and when Hamas is removed from power. No Arab country is willing to take on the responsibility for the volatile territory. The Palestinian Authority, the most suitable governing body, struggles to maintain control over the West Bank and has lost legitimacy and public support.

Arab leaders have a potential opportunity to step in and display heroism. One possibility is for the UAE, known for their experienced and well-trained forces, to provide support to the PA through joint patrols and strict oversight of a much-needed large-scale reconstruction effort. It is worth noting that the UAE is already in the process of establishing a field hospital in Gaza.

A comprehensive political reconstruction program is critical for the PA to address widespread corruption and rebuild public trust. Additionally, it is essential for a strong Palestinian leader who advocates peace with Israel to emerge in order to prevent a repeat of past instances where Palestinian leaders rejected peace offers from Israelis, ultimately undermining Israel's peace efforts and paving the way for right-wing leaders to take power.

Get Our Free Weekly Newsletter

Sign up for CNN Opinions newsletter

Connect with us on Twitter and Facebook. Every effort to find a solution is accompanied by numerous challenges. What is considered reasonable and what is practical are not the same in this ongoing conflict, which is why even the most skilled diplomats have been unable to resolve it for 75 years.

The reason for optimism lies in the fact that previous instances of intense fighting have ultimately resulted in progress towards peace. This was evident following the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the first Intifada, which led to peace between Israel and Egypt, and the Oslo Accords, respectively. Allowing Hamas leaders to survive in exile and potentially bringing the PA and even the UAE to Gaza may pose risks, but the alternative of continued conflict, suffering, and deepening mistrust is far worse.

Am I optimistic? Please dont ask. But I do think theres some chance for peace.