Nobel Peace Prize Shines Light of Hope in Troubled Times of Conflict and Climate Crisis

The Nobel Peace Prize is scheduled to be presented in Norway on Friday, amidst the ongoing aggressive invasion of Ukraine by Russia and the escalating tensions in other volatile regions worldwide. With the mounting frustrations surrounding numerous peace-promoting endeavors, some observers question the appropriateness of bestowing one of humanity's most prestigious honors at such an unfavorable juncture.

"Amidst the current lack of peace, it remains uncertain as to who should receive the prestigious peacemaker award," stated Dan Smith, the director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in an interview with CNN.

However, during these turbulent and divided times, the peace prize holds the potential to shine as a symbol of hope.

"The peace prize holds significant importance in situations like these. It serves as a means to recognize noteworthy achievements and contributions that take place worldwide," stated Henrik Urdal, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), in an interview with CNN.

Predicting the Nobel prizes is a challenging task. The Nobel committee reveals the number of nominees but keeps their identities confidential and refrains from disclosing a shortlist. Nonetheless, experts have identified a group of potential frontrunners, acknowledging that the committee often enjoys making unexpected selections.

The impact of war in Europe

Just like last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is once again a top contender in the predictions of various bookmakers. However, experts familiar with the Nobel Prize have promptly disregarded these speculations, as it is uncommon for a leader involved in a conflict to receive the esteemed peace award.

"It's comparable to suggesting that Winston Churchill, the British Prime Minister in 1941, should have been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. At that time, his focus was winning the war. Similarly, Zelensky is currently engaged in efforts to accomplish the same," remarked SIPRI's Smith.

"In my opinion, once he successfully guides his country towards peace, he will likely receive the recognition and be widely regarded as a highly deserving recipient of the award," Smith further noted.

Zelensky may have been tipped as a bookmakers' favorite, but is not thought to be a likely contender.

Bryan R. Smith/AFP/Getty Images

Urdal said that many bookmakers were cynically tipping Zelensky for the award simply because "hes a well-known name."

"Bookmakers in this area are searching for candidates that people are willing to bet on - or rather, lose money on," Urdal expressed. "I do not believe this accurately reflects the actual likelihood of him winning the prize."

Although it may seem unlikely for a wartime leader to receive the award, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has prompted various international organizations to actively pursue peace, making them potential contenders for Friday's honor.

Pierre Agostini, Ferenc Krausz and Anne L'Huillier shared this year's physics prize.

Ohio State University/Max Planck Institute of Quantum Optics/National Academy of Sciences

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Urdal's highly sought-after annual shortlist for the prize included the International Court of Justice (ICJ) as a potential contender. The ICJ was recognized for its endeavors in promoting peace through international law, similar to the peace congresses endorsed in Alfred Nobel's will, which established the Nobel prizes in 1895. Following the invasion of Ukraine, the ICJ promptly commanded Russia to cease military operations.

Another potential nominee, which could have significant repercussions, is the International Criminal Court (ICC). In March, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin, accusing him of orchestrating a scheme to relocate Ukrainian children to Russia. Signatories to the Rome Statute of the ICC are required to arrest Putin if he enters their countries.

However, despite Urdal considering both Urdal and Zelensky worthy winners, they may be overlooked due to the fact that the previous two peace prizes have been awarded to advocates and organizations from the same region. In 2022, the prize was given to human rights groups from Russia and Ukraine, namely Memorial and the Center for Civil Liberties, as well as the imprisoned Belarusian advocate Ales Bialiatski. The previous year, Russian journalist Dmitry Muratov also received the award for his efforts in protecting freedom of expression. Bialiatski remains incarcerated, while Muratov has been labeled a "foreign agent" under a Russian law that seeks to restrict press freedom.

"There have been two consecutive prizes recently awarded, both focused on Ukraine and Russia. It is possible that the committee would want to consider recognizing achievements in other geographical regions," Urdal stated.

Muratov accepted the peace prize at the award ceremony in Oslo, December 10, 2021.

ODD ANDERSEN/AFP/AFP via Getty Images

A growing climate disaster

Although the award will be announced on Friday, recipients will not be awarded their prizes until an official ceremony in December. Smith emphasized that during this period, the world will experience an "El Niño" winter characterized by prolonged periods of above-average ocean temperatures.

Smith believes that 2022 has been a year of enlightenment regarding the severity of climate disaster, evident through occurrences such as the appearance of hunger stones in rivers marking historic droughts and the devastating floods affecting 35% of Pakistan, along with China's most severe drought on record.

This year, Canada has experienced wildfires that caused smog in New York. Additionally, there has been a significant influx of sargassum (seaweed) on the beaches of Mexico. Unprecedented high temperatures have been recorded in various locations. Surprisingly, El Niño has not yet occurred. Smith and Urdal agree that climate change is expected to be a key focus for the committee this year, and they propose that it may be linked to the rights of indigenous peoples.

Victoria Tauli-Corpuz, a UN special rapporteur, was among Urdal's favorites.

Urdal suggests that the impact of climate change on indigenous groups' ways of life is a significant concern. He proposes that a potential solution could be to acknowledge and honor indigenous groups' representatives through an award, which would create an important link between human rights, group rights, climate change, and environmental issues.

The indigenous peoples' rights are likely to be on the committee's agenda, as Norway recently released a report on truth and reconciliation, focusing on the country's indigenous Sami community. Among the potential winners, Urdal mentioned Victoria Tauli-Corpuz, a Filipino activist and former chair of the UN Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues, and Juan Carlos Jintiach, the Ecuadorian leader of the federation representing indigenous organizations in the Amazon basin.

Brazilian indigenous leader Raoni Metuktire speaking ahead of a summit in the Amazon, August 7, 2023.

Smith also recommended Chief Raoni Metuktire, the leader of the Kayapo People in the Brazilian Amazon, who recently delivered a speech at the Amazonia summit organized by Brazil's President Lula da Silva, for the prestigious award.

"We need to be listening a little bit more to indigenous people whose rights can all too easily get trampled over," Smith added.